[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1148},["ShallowReactive",2],{"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-ahpr-and-ghpr":3,"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-ahpr-and-ghpr-related":240},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":224,"date":225,"description":226,"draft":227,"extension":228,"meta":229,"navigation":227,"path":230,"related":231,"seo":236,"stem":237,"term":238,"updated":225,"__hash__":239},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-ahpr-and-ghpr.md","What Are AHPR and GHPR? Formulas and the Gap",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":216},"minimark",[9,13,18,21,32,41,49,52,58,69,73,76,89,97,101,117,137,141,161,168,172,208],[10,11,12],"p",{},"AHPR and GHPR are the average return of a single trade, expressed as a percentage of the capital standing before that trade: AHPR takes the arithmetic mean of those returns, GHPR the geometric one. They measure the same trades, answer different questions, and the distance between them reads how volatile the results were.",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"how-it-works","How it works",[10,19,20],{},"Each closed trade gets a holding period return, its net result over the capital behind it:",[22,23,28],"pre",{"className":24,"code":26,"language":27},[25],"language-text","HPRᵢ = (profit + swap + commission)ᵢ \u002F Capital before trade i\n\nAHPR = ( Σ HPRᵢ \u002F N ) × 100\nGHPR = ( [ Π (1 + HPRᵢ) ] ^ (1\u002FN) − 1 ) × 100\n","text",[29,30,26],"code",{"__ignoreMap":31},"",[10,33,34,35,40],{},"Costs sit inside the numerator: commission and ",[36,37,39],"a",{"href":38},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-swap-in-forex","swap"," are folded into every trade before it becomes an HPR, so both figures are net.",[10,42,43,44,48],{},"One detail about the base matters. Our implementation seeds the running capital with the account's ",[45,46,47],"strong",{},"total lifetime deposits",", then rolls it forward by each trade's net result. On an account funded in instalments, early trades are measured against money that had not arrived yet, which drags both figures toward zero; on a single-deposit account the base behaves exactly as the formula reads.",[10,50,51],{},"GHPR is never above AHPR. That is arithmetic, not a property of trading: the geometric mean of positive numbers is at most the arithmetic mean, equal only when every number is identical. The shortfall is approximately half the variance of the returns:",[22,53,56],{"className":54,"code":55,"language":27},[25],"GHPR ≈ AHPR − σ² \u002F 2\n",[29,57,55],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,59,60,61,64,65,68],{},"Two trades make the point. A +50% followed by a −50% gives an AHPR of exactly ",[45,62,63],{},"0%",", while the account sits at 0.75 of where it started. GHPR is √(1.50 × 0.50) − 1 = ",[45,66,67],{},"−13.4%",", which compounded twice lands precisely on that 0.75. The arithmetic mean describes a result nobody received; the geometric one reproduces the balance.",[14,70,72],{"id":71},"why-it-matters","Why it matters",[10,74,75],{},"You cannot spend an arithmetic mean. Only the geometric figure, raised to the number of trades, returns what the account actually did, which makes GHPR the number to quote and AHPR its yardstick. A wide gap between them is the volatility tax: what variance removes from compounding before it reaches the balance.",[10,77,78,79,83,84,88],{},"The asymmetry gets brutal at the tail. A single trade that removes the entire capital sets one factor in the product to zero, and a product with a zero in it is zero: GHPR reads −100% however good the preceding thousand trades were. That is the argument for ",[36,80,82],{"href":81},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","position sizing"," over win rate, restated as multiplication: a method with a healthy AHPR and enough ",[36,85,87],{"href":86},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-standard-deviation-in-trading","standard deviation"," to occasionally risk everything still has a negative geometric expectation.",[10,90,91,92,96],{},"AHPR is not decoration: it is per-trade ",[36,93,95],{"href":94},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy","expectancy"," restated as a percentage of capital rather than in pips or currency, which makes it comparable across account sizes. Read as a pair, the two say what the average trade earned and what was left of it after variance.",[14,98,100],{"id":99},"what-the-data-shows","What the data shows",[10,102,103,104,107,108,112,113,116],{},"The figures below describe accounts published on ShowMyTrades, not traders in general. The median published account has ",[45,105,106],{},"171 closed trades"," and a median ",[36,109,111],{"href":110},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","time-weighted return"," of ",[45,114,115],{},"+3.2%",". Spread that return evenly across that many trades and the geometric return per trade comes to about +0.018%, which the panel would round to +0.02%. That is an illustration, not a measured median, but it is the honest scale of these numbers and why they look underwhelming on almost every real account.",[10,118,119,120,112,124,127,128,131,132,136],{},"The same population has a median ",[36,121,123],{"href":122},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","profit factor",[45,125,126],{},"1.28",", net of swap and commission, and a median win rate of ",[45,129,130],{},"68.8%",". A page can therefore carry ",[36,133,135],{"href":134},"\u002Fguides\u002Fwin-rate-is-not-an-edge","a strong-looking win rate"," beside a GHPR barely off zero without contradiction. What matters is the sign, the gap to AHPR, and how many trades produced them.",[14,138,140],{"id":139},"where-you-see-it-on-showmytrades","Where you see it on ShowMyTrades",[10,142,143,144,147,148,151,152,155,156,160],{},"Both sit in the ",[45,145,146],{},"Advanced Statistics"," module on every published account page, labelled ",[45,149,150],{},"AHPR"," and ",[45,153,154],{},"GHPR",", at the foot of the ",[157,158,159],"em",{},"Performance Metrics"," column below Profit Factor, Standard Deviation, Sharpe Ratio, Z-Score (Probability) and Expectancy. Each prints as a signed percentage to two decimals, green at or above zero, red below.",[10,162,163,164,167],{},"The module has four views — Table, Weekday, Hourly and Duration. AHPR and GHPR live on the Table view; the other three show ",[157,165,166],{},"which"," trades produced the variance separating them. Both values are computed by our statistics service when the account syncs, not in your browser.",[14,169,171],{"id":170},"common-misunderstandings","Common misunderstandings",[173,174,175,182,196,202],"ul",{},[176,177,178,181],"li",{},[45,179,180],{},"\"AHPR is the average, so it is the honest one.\""," It is an average nobody earns. Whenever results vary it overstates compounded growth, by roughly half the variance.",[176,183,184,187,188,191,192,195],{},[45,185,186],{},"\"They are monthly or annual returns.\""," They are per trade. The same +0.02% means very different things at 20 trades and at 2,000, so read them next to ",[45,189,190],{},"Total Trades"," in the ",[157,193,194],{},"Trades"," column of the same module.",[176,197,198,201],{},[45,199,200],{},"\"A GHPR near zero means the system does not work.\""," At normal per-trade risk both numbers are small and the panel rounds to two decimals. An account showing +0.02% per trade over several hundred trades is up double digits.",[176,203,204,207],{},[45,205,206],{},"\"A positive AHPR with a negative GHPR is a bug.\""," It is the signature of large swings: returns can average above zero and still compound downward, which is the most useful thing this pair tells you.",[10,209,210,211,215],{},"For how per-trade figures fit into a record you intend to show other people, see ",[36,212,214],{"href":213},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftracking-trading-performance","tracking trading performance",".",{"title":31,"searchDepth":217,"depth":217,"links":218},2,[219,220,221,222,223],{"id":16,"depth":217,"text":17},{"id":71,"depth":217,"text":72},{"id":99,"depth":217,"text":100},{"id":139,"depth":217,"text":140},{"id":170,"depth":217,"text":171},"Metrics","2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","AHPR and GHPR are the arithmetic and geometric average return per trade. The formulas, why the geometric one is always lower, and thousands of accounts measured.",true,"md",{},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-ahpr-and-ghpr",[232,233,234,235],"what-is-expectancy","what-is-standard-deviation-in-trading","what-is-position-sizing","what-is-a-z-score-in-trading",{"title":5,"description":226},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-ahpr-and-ghpr","AHPR and GHPR","qyQturGf725Un7ZAo6vvCR9Pw8KcwFNKhYfjLQIuylo",[241,444,684,900],{"id":242,"title":243,"body":244,"category":224,"date":225,"description":433,"draft":227,"extension":228,"meta":434,"navigation":227,"path":435,"related":436,"seo":440,"stem":441,"term":442,"updated":225,"__hash__":443},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-z-score-in-trading.md","What Is a Z-Score in Trading? Streaks vs Chance",{"type":7,"value":245,"toc":426},[246,249,251,258,264,271,274,294,301,303,311,318,326,329,331,350,366,368,384,391,393,419],[10,247,248],{},"A z-score in trading measures whether wins and losses arrive in streaks or take turns, by counting the runs in the actual sequence and comparing that count with what chance would produce from the same wins and losses. It says nothing about whether the account made money, only whether one trade's outcome carried information about the next.",[14,250,17],{"id":16},[10,252,253,254,257],{},"A ",[157,255,256],{},"run"," is an unbroken block of same-sign results. The sequence W W L W L L has four runs. The statistic is the Wald–Wolfowitz runs test:",[22,259,262],{"className":260,"code":261,"language":27},[25],"Expected runs   R  = 2WL \u002F N + 1\nVariance        σ² = 2WL(2WL − N) \u002F ( N² (N − 1) )\nZ                  = (Runs − R) \u002F σ\n\nW = winning trades, L = losing trades, N = W + L\n",[29,263,261],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,265,266,267,270],{},"Trades are ordered by close time, and a trade counts as a win on its ",[45,268,269],{},"net"," result, with commission and swap already applied. A position that finished gross-positive and net-negative after costs is a loss here, and it breaks a winning run.",[10,272,273],{},"The sign is the reading:",[173,275,276,282,288],{},[176,277,278,281],{},[45,279,280],{},"Negative z",": fewer runs than chance. Results cluster. Wins follow wins, losses follow losses.",[176,283,284,287],{},[45,285,286],{},"Positive z",": more runs than chance. Results alternate more than a coin would.",[176,289,290,293],{},[45,291,292],{},"Near zero",": indistinguishable from independent trades.",[10,295,296,297,300],{},"On the account page the score is followed by a percentage in brackets: the same score squashed onto a 0–100 scale, with ",[45,298,299],{},"50% meaning exactly as random as a coin",". Below 50% is streakier than chance, above 50% more alternating; a z of −2.41 shows as 8.24%, a z of +1.00 as 73.11%. It is a readable restatement, not a p-value, so 8.24% is not a significance level.",[14,302,72],{"id":71},[10,304,305,306,310],{},"Strategy statistics almost always assume trades are independent. When the z-score says otherwise, other numbers on the page quietly stop meaning what they appear to mean. Losses that cluster produce a deeper ",[36,307,309],{"href":308},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","drawdown"," than an equivalent win rate suggests, because drawdown depends on how the losses were arranged, not just how many there were.",[10,312,313,314,215],{},"A strongly negative score has a familiar source. Grid, averaging-down and basket systems open many positions around one idea and close them together, so a single decision emits a long block of same-sign results. Anything that scales into a losing position does the same, and the account that produces it usually also shows a wide gap between equity and ",[36,315,317],{"href":316},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown-on-balance","balance drawdown",[10,319,320,321,325],{},"A strongly positive score usually means the account is not running one sequence at all. Hedged pairs book a winner and a loser at the same moment, and two unrelated strategies interleaved on one login produce an artificial alternation belonging to neither. Where trades carry ",[36,322,324],{"href":323},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-magic-number","magic numbers",", reading each stream separately is the only way to get an honest score.",[10,327,328],{},"The practical use is narrow and real: a negative score is the statistical case for rules about consecutive losses, and a score near zero is the case against them.",[14,330,100],{"id":99},[10,332,103,333,335,336,338,339,342,343,346,347,215],{},[45,334,106],{}," and a ",[45,337,130],{}," ",[36,340,341],{"href":134},"win rate",", which puts about 118 wins against 53 losses. Chance predicts roughly ",[45,344,345],{},"74 runs"," from that mix, and one standard deviation is about ",[45,348,349],{},"5.6 runs",[10,351,352,353,356,357,360,361,365],{},"So on a median account the sequence has to collapse to about 63 runs, or stretch past 85, before the score reaches ±2. Anything between those bounds is consistent with a coin. That is a real constraint on the weight the number carries, and it tightens with history: the same pattern on 1,700 trades is a finding, on 171 it is a hint. It matters too that ",[45,354,355],{},"53.9%"," of these accounts are more than 90% automated and ",[45,358,359],{},"42.2%"," are under 10% — clustering is far more common in the first group, because ",[36,362,364],{"href":363},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-expert-advisor","a robot"," closing a basket writes several identical outcomes into the sequence at once.",[14,367,140],{"id":139},[10,369,370,371,373,374,377,378,380,381,383],{},"The metric appears in the ",[45,372,146],{}," module on every published account page as ",[45,375,376],{},"Z-Score (Probability)",", the score to two decimals with the mapped percentage beside it, in the ",[157,379,159],{}," column alongside Profit Factor, Standard Deviation, Sharpe Ratio, Expectancy, ",[36,382,238],{"href":230},". The value is computed by our statistics service when the account syncs, not in your browser.",[10,385,386,387,390],{},"It also drives a line in the ",[45,388,389],{},"Smart Insights"," panel on the same page, where a score inside ±2 on an account with at least 30 closed trades is reported as a consistent trading pattern.",[14,392,171],{"id":170},[173,394,395,401,407,413],{},[176,396,397,400],{},[45,398,399],{},"\"A negative z-score is bad.\""," It is not a quality measure. It describes dependence between trades and is silent on profitability. Plenty of good trend systems score negative.",[176,402,403,406],{},[45,404,405],{},"\"It predicts the next trade.\""," It summarises a sequence that already happened. Nothing in the runs test is forward-looking.",[176,408,409,412],{},[45,410,411],{},"\"The percentage is the chance the system works.\""," It is the score on a different scale, nothing more. Fifty per cent is the random midpoint, not a pass mark.",[176,414,415,418],{},[45,416,417],{},"\"Ordering does not matter.\""," It is the only thing that matters. Trades closing in the same second have no meaningful internal order, so basket-closing systems can move their own run count for reasons unrelated to the strategy.",[10,420,421,422,215],{},"For how many trades a statistic like this needs before it means anything, see ",[36,423,425],{"href":424},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-much-history-a-track-record-needs","how much history a track record needs",{"title":31,"searchDepth":217,"depth":217,"links":427},[428,429,430,431,432],{"id":16,"depth":217,"text":17},{"id":71,"depth":217,"text":72},{"id":99,"depth":217,"text":100},{"id":139,"depth":217,"text":140},{"id":170,"depth":217,"text":171},"A trading z-score compares the streakiness of wins and losses against chance. How our Z-Score (Probability) is computed, and why 171 trades is a thin sample.",{},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-z-score-in-trading",[437,438,439,232],"what-is-ahpr-and-ghpr","what-is-drawdown-on-balance","what-is-a-magic-number",{"title":243,"description":433},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-z-score-in-trading","Z-Score","qO_QBoCenSAFLZuQeTpNFN9pheoSbRod7X9CqvXBYSY",{"id":445,"title":446,"body":447,"category":224,"date":225,"description":675,"draft":227,"extension":228,"meta":676,"navigation":227,"path":94,"related":677,"seo":681,"stem":682,"term":561,"updated":225,"__hash__":683},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy.md","What Is Expectancy? Formula, Example, Real Data",{"type":7,"value":448,"toc":668},[449,452,454,460,467,470,476,479,481,488,496,504,506,519,537,555,557,569,611,631,633,662],[10,450,451],{},"Expectancy is the average result of a single trade, expressed in currency or in pips: what the account earns, on average, every time it opens a position. It is built from four numbers — win rate, average win, loss rate, average loss — and it answers \"does this system make money per trade\" in units you can multiply by a trade count. Positive expectancy repeated often enough is a business; negative expectancy is a countdown.",[14,453,17],{"id":16},[22,455,458],{"className":456,"code":457,"language":27},[25],"Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)\n\nLoss Rate = 1 − Win Rate\n",[29,459,457],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,461,462,463,466],{},"A system that wins 40% of the time, makes $300 on a winner and loses $100 on a loser: (0.40 × $300) − (0.60 × $100) = $120 − $60 = ",[45,464,465],{},"+$60 per trade",". Four hundred trades a year is $24,000 of expected result, before position size changes and before anything goes wrong.",[10,468,469],{},"The same formula written in R multiples, where R is one average loss, strips out the account currency and makes systems comparable:",[22,471,474],{"className":472,"code":473,"language":27},[25],"Expectancy (R) = (Win Rate × Payoff) − (1 − Win Rate)\n\nPayoff = Avg Win \u002F Avg Loss\n",[29,475,473],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,477,478],{},"Two things decide whether the output means anything. First, costs must already sit inside the inputs: spread, commission and swap come out of every trade, shrinking each winner and enlarging each loser. Second, the averages need enough trades that one outsized result cannot set them.",[14,480,72],{"id":71},[10,482,483,484,487],{},"Expectancy is the bridge between a statistic and a plan. ",[36,485,486],{"href":122},"Profit factor"," tells you the ratio of money won to money lost; expectancy tells you what one more trade is worth, which is the number you multiply by frequency to get an expected month.",[10,489,490,491,495],{},"It also exposes the trade-off that a win rate hides. A win rate is only half of an edge — the other half is the ",[36,492,494],{"href":493},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio","risk-reward ratio",", and expectancy is where the two meet. Move either one and the result moves; keep both and no amount of narrative changes it.",[10,497,498,499,503],{},"And it sets the cost floor. If a strategy expects +$8 a trade and the round-turn ",[36,500,502],{"href":501},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","spread"," and commission cost $7, what is left is not a strategy.",[14,505,100],{"id":99},[10,507,508,509,512,513,335,516,215],{},"The figures below describe accounts published on ShowMyTrades, not traders in general. Take the middle of the published accounts that have trading history (August 2026): a ",[45,510,511],{},"median win rate of 68.8%",", a ",[45,514,515],{},"median profit factor of 1.28",[45,517,518],{},"median of 171 closed trades",[10,520,521,522,525,526,529,530,536],{},"Those numbers pin the expectancy of that middle account. Inverting the profit factor formula gives an average winner worth about ",[45,523,524],{},"0.58×"," its average loser, and the R form turns the rest into arithmetic: (0.688 × 0.58) − 0.312 = ",[45,527,528],{},"+0.087R",". Nine hundredths of one average losing trade, per trade taken. Over 171 trades the entire record adds up to roughly fifteen average losses' worth of profit — which is why the ",[45,531,532,533,535],{},"median ",[36,534,111],{"href":110}," is only +3.2%"," despite nearly seven trades in ten closing green.",[10,538,539,540,151,543,546,547,550,551,554],{},"Costs are not a rounding error at that thickness. Published accounts have paid ",[45,541,542],{},"$4,782,670 in commissions",[45,544,545],{},"$862,547 in swap",", and ",[45,548,549],{},"86.3%"," of the accounts that carry swap at all pay net negative swap. At a ",[45,552,553],{},"median trade length of 2.4 hours",", an edge of 0.087R survives only if the cost of a round turn stays small against the average loss.",[14,556,140],{"id":139},[10,558,559,562,563,565,566,568],{},[45,560,561],{},"Expectancy"," is a row in the ",[45,564,146],{}," module on every published account page, inside the ",[157,567,159],{}," group. It prints both units on one line — pips first, then account currency — because a pip figure travels between symbols and a currency figure travels between position sizes, and neither alone is complete.",[10,570,571,572,574,575,578,579,578,582,151,585,587,588,594,595,151,598,601,602,578,605,151,608,215],{},"Its four inputs are in the ",[157,573,194],{}," group of the same module: ",[45,576,577],{},"Win Rate",", ",[45,580,581],{},"Avg. Win",[45,583,584],{},"Avg. Loss",[45,586,190],{},", next to ",[45,589,590],{},[36,591,593],{"href":592},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-average-trade-length","Avg. Trade Length",", which says whether a thin per-trade edge is being earned in hours or in weeks. The costs already deducted appear as ",[45,596,597],{},"Total Commissions",[45,599,600],{},"Total Swap Paid",", with the per-trade detail in the trades table under ",[45,603,604],{},"Profit (Gross)",[45,606,607],{},"Swap",[45,609,610],{},"Commission",[10,612,613,614,620,621,578,624,151,627,630],{},"To test whether an expectancy is one edge or an average of several, the ",[45,615,616],{},[36,617,619],{"href":618},"\u002Fguides\u002Fcustom-analysis-and-filter-presets","Custom Analysis"," slideover recomputes the whole block on a filtered subset — by symbol, magic number, direction, date range, weekday or hour — and Advanced Statistics adds ",[157,622,623],{},"Weekday",[157,625,626],{},"Hourly",[157,628,629],{},"Duration"," views that split the same result without any filtering.",[14,632,171],{"id":170},[173,634,635,644,650,656],{},[176,636,637,640,641,643],{},[45,638,639],{},"\"Positive expectancy means I will make money.\""," It means the average trade is profitable. Size the positions wrong and a positive-expectancy system still ends at zero: survival is a ",[36,642,82],{"href":81}," question, not an expectancy one.",[176,645,646,649],{},[45,647,648],{},"\"Expectancy is just my average trade.\""," Only if the average is taken net. Computed on gross profit it ignores commission and swap, which is exactly where thin edges disappear.",[176,651,652,655],{},[45,653,654],{},"\"A high win rate implies positive expectancy.\""," It implies nothing on its own. At a 0.58 payoff, a 60% win rate is a losing system.",[176,657,658,661],{},[45,659,660],{},"\"The number is stable.\""," On a few hundred trades it is not. One outsized winner can lift a whole record's expectancy, and removing it is a fair test.",[10,663,664,665,215],{},"For the metrics worth tracking over time and the order to read them in, see ",[36,666,667],{"href":213},"the guide to tracking trading performance",{"title":31,"searchDepth":217,"depth":217,"links":669},[670,671,672,673,674],{"id":16,"depth":217,"text":17},{"id":71,"depth":217,"text":72},{"id":99,"depth":217,"text":100},{"id":139,"depth":217,"text":140},{"id":170,"depth":217,"text":171},"Expectancy is the average profit or loss of one trade: (win rate × avg win) − (loss rate × avg loss). The formula, a worked example, and public accounts.",{},[678,679,234,680],"what-is-a-profit-factor","what-is-risk-reward-ratio","what-is-drawdown",{"title":446,"description":675},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy","U6yMG7Etb-uidsGFxazRu_6VJh-bM41wGZNqkAU1r7Q",{"id":685,"title":686,"body":687,"category":888,"date":225,"description":889,"draft":890,"extension":228,"meta":891,"navigation":227,"path":81,"related":892,"seo":896,"stem":897,"term":898,"updated":225,"__hash__":899},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing.md","What Is Position Sizing? Formula and Lot Size Calculation",{"type":7,"value":688,"toc":881},[689,695,697,700,706,709,715,723,726,746,753,758,760,763,771,773,789,792,804,806,814,841,843,874],[10,690,691,692,694],{},"Position sizing is the decision of how large a trade to open, derived from how much of the account you are willing to lose if the trade fails. It converts a risk percentage into a lot size using two inputs: the distance to your stop and the value of one pip at that size. It is the single variable that determines an account's ",[36,693,309],{"href":308}," profile, and it is chosen before the trade rather than discovered after it.",[14,696,17],{"id":16},[10,698,699],{},"Three steps, in order.",[22,701,704],{"className":702,"code":703,"language":27},[25],"1. Risk amount   = Account balance × Risk %\n2. Pip value     = Contract size × Pip in quote currency × FX rate to account currency\n3. Position size = Risk amount \u002F (Stop distance in pips × Pip value per lot)\n",[29,705,703],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,707,708],{},"A worked example on a $10,000 account risking 1% per trade, with a 50-pip stop on EUR\u002FUSD, where one standard lot moves $10 per pip:",[22,710,713],{"className":711,"code":712,"language":27},[25],"Risk amount   = 10,000 × 0.01      = $100\nPosition size = 100 \u002F (50 × 10)    = 0.20 lots\n",[29,714,712],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,716,717,718,722],{},"Widen the stop to 100 pips and the same $100 of risk buys 0.10 lots. The risk stays constant; the size adapts. That inversion is the whole idea, and it is why sizing and ",[36,719,721],{"href":720},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","stop-loss"," placement cannot be decided separately.",[10,724,725],{},"Three methods dominate in practice:",[173,727,728,734,740],{},[176,729,730,733],{},[45,731,732],{},"Fixed lot."," Always 0.10 lots, whatever the stop or the balance. Simple, and the risk per trade drifts constantly as both change.",[176,735,736,739],{},[45,737,738],{},"Percentage risk (fixed fractional)."," The formula above. Risk stays proportional, so losses shrink in currency terms as the account falls — the mechanism that makes recovery arithmetically possible.",[176,741,742,745],{},[45,743,744],{},"Martingale progression."," Size increases after a loss to recover it. Wins are frequent and small, the equity curve looks immaculate, and the distribution of outcomes has a fat left tail that arrives all at once.",[10,747,748],{},[749,750],"img",{"alt":751,"src":752},"Doubling the lot size after every loss against a fixed fraction of equity: same win rate, same market, opposite outcomes","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Flot-progression.svg",[10,754,755],{},[157,756,757],{},"Which one an account uses is readable from the lot sizes alone.",[14,759,72],{"id":71},[10,761,762],{},"Entries decide whether you win. Sizing decides whether you are still there for the next one. Two traders taking identical signals with identical stops produce identical win rates and completely different accounts, because one risked 0.5% and the other risked 8%.",[10,764,765,766,770],{},"Sizing is also where ",[36,767,769],{"href":768},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-leverage","leverage"," does its actual damage. High leverage is not itself risk — it is permission to take risk. The risk arrives when that permission is used to open a size whose stop distance implies a loss the account cannot absorb twice in a row.",[14,772,100],{"id":99},[10,774,775,776,779,780,784,785,788],{},"Sizing leaves its signature in the drawdown tail. Across the accounts published on ShowMyTrades that have trading history (August 2026) — accounts published here, not traders in general — ",[45,777,778],{},"38.2%"," have been ",[36,781,783],{"href":782},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","more than 20% underwater"," at some point and ",[45,786,787],{},"17.6%"," have lost more than half their peak value.",[10,790,791],{},"A properly sized fixed-fractional account rarely reaches that last band. Losing 50% at 1% risk per trade requires roughly 69 consecutive losses. Accounts in that tail generally arrived another way: escalating size after losses, or a size chosen without reference to the stop at all.",[10,793,794,795,546,798,800,801,803],{},"Context for who is doing the sizing: the median autotrading share on these accounts is ",[45,796,797],{},"99%",[45,799,355],{}," run above 90% automated, against ",[45,802,359],{}," under 10%. On more than half of the published set, position size is a line in an EA's settings — configured once and never revisited as the balance moves.",[14,805,140],{"id":139},[10,807,808,809,813],{},"The ",[36,810,812],{"href":811},"\u002Ftools\u002Fposition-size-calculator","position size calculator"," runs the formula above with live prices, in your account currency, for percentage or fixed-amount risk and for stops expressed in price or pips.",[10,815,816,817,820,821,824,825,827,828,831,832,191,838,840],{},"On a published account page you can audit sizing rather than assume it. The ",[45,818,819],{},"trades table"," carries a ",[45,822,823],{},"Volume"," column showing the lot size of every individual trade, so a size that steps up after each loser is visible directly. ",[45,826,619],{}," adds a ",[45,829,830],{},"Lot Size"," min\u002Fmax filter: set a floor above the account's normal size and see whether the surviving trades cluster immediately after losses, which is the martingale signature. ",[45,833,834],{},[36,835,837],{"href":836},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftrading-volume-analysis","Total Lots",[45,839,146],{}," module gives the aggregate; across published accounts it stands at 1,724,575 lots traded.",[14,842,171],{"id":170},[173,844,845,851,862,868],{},[176,846,847,850],{},[45,848,849],{},"\"Risking 2% means using 2% of my account.\""," No. 2% is the loss if the stop is hit. The margin the position occupies is a separate figure entirely, set by leverage.",[176,852,853,856,857,861],{},[45,854,855],{},"\"I risk 1% per trade, so my worst case is 1%.\""," Only with one position open. ",[36,858,860],{"href":859},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-correlation-risk","Five correlated positions"," at 1% each are one 5% trade wearing a disguise, and correlated pairs move together precisely when it hurts.",[176,863,864,867],{},[45,865,866],{},"\"No stop loss, so no risk to calculate.\""," Without a stop, the position size formula has no denominator — the risk is not small, it is undefined, and its true value is the margin call.",[176,869,870,873],{},[45,871,872],{},"\"Compounding means scaling up.\""," Fixed-fractional sizing scales both ways. Increasing lots after wins while holding them constant after losses is not compounding; it is a slow ratchet toward a drawdown you never sized for.",[10,875,876,877,215],{},"For the full set of risk and sizing tools and when each one applies, see ",[36,878,880],{"href":879},"\u002Fguides\u002Fforex-calculators-guide","the forex calculators guide",{"title":31,"searchDepth":217,"depth":217,"links":882},[883,884,885,886,887],{"id":16,"depth":217,"text":17},{"id":71,"depth":217,"text":72},{"id":99,"depth":217,"text":100},{"id":139,"depth":217,"text":140},{"id":170,"depth":217,"text":171},"Risk","Position sizing turns a risk percentage into a lot size using your stop distance and pip value. The formula, the three common methods, and what bad sizing costs.",false,{},[680,893,894,895],"what-is-maximum-drawdown","what-is-a-stop-loss","what-is-leverage",{"title":686,"description":889},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","Position Sizing","qP5mfGAxSuWSiccKuy0i_N8LQtpN2UHwOG-ZOVxOViU",{"id":901,"title":902,"body":903,"category":224,"date":225,"description":1139,"draft":227,"extension":228,"meta":1140,"navigation":227,"path":86,"related":1141,"seo":1145,"stem":1146,"term":1048,"updated":225,"__hash__":1147},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-standard-deviation-in-trading.md","What Is Standard Deviation in Trading? Formula and Data",{"type":7,"value":904,"toc":1132},[905,908,910,916,934,969,972,974,977,988,991,1018,1020,1029,1032,1042,1044,1069,1094,1096,1127],[10,906,907],{},"Standard deviation is the typical distance between a single trade's result and the account's average trade result. On ShowMyTrades it is reported in the account currency, so it answers a direct question: how much does one trade usually differ from the ordinary trade on this account? A small figure means results cluster; a large one means the history is made of outliers.",[14,909,17],{"id":16},[22,911,914],{"className":912,"code":913,"language":27},[25],"Standard Deviation = √( Σ (rᵢ − mean)² \u002F n )\n",[29,915,913],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,917,918,919,922,923,578,926,929,930,933],{},"Where ",[29,920,921],{},"rᵢ"," is the net result of closed trade ",[157,924,925],{},"i",[29,927,928],{},"mean"," is the average of those results, and ",[29,931,932],{},"n"," is the number of closed trades. Four details decide what the number means:",[173,935,936,944,950,963],{},[176,937,938,338,941,943],{},[45,939,940],{},"Each trade enters net of costs.",[29,942,921],{}," is profit + commission + swap, so commission-heavy and swap-heavy trades widen the dispersion exactly as much as they narrow the profit.",[176,945,946,949],{},[45,947,948],{},"Only closed buy and sell trades count."," Deposits and withdrawals are filtered out before the series is built, so funding the account is not a giant outlier.",[176,951,952,955,956,958,959,962],{},[45,953,954],{},"It is the population form",", dividing by ",[29,957,932],{}," rather than ",[29,960,961],{},"n − 1",". With fewer than two closed trades the metric reads 0.00.",[176,964,965,968],{},[45,966,967],{},"It is in currency, not percent."," A $50 standard deviation on a $2,000 account and on a $200,000 account describe completely different behaviour. Always read it against the account balance.",[10,970,971],{},"Because distances are squared before averaging, one exceptional trade moves the figure far more than a dozen ordinary ones — which is what makes it catch the trade that does not belong.",[14,973,72],{"id":71},[10,975,976],{},"Standard deviation is the honest test of the word \"consistent\": anyone can call an equity curve steady, and this puts a currency value on how steady the trades were.",[10,978,979,980,984,985,987],{},"It is also the denominator of our ",[36,981,983],{"href":982},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-the-sharpe-ratio","Sharpe ratio",": Sharpe is the average trade expressed in units of this figure. And it is the natural companion to ",[36,986,95],{"href":94},", which gives the average outcome per trade with no indication of how reliably that average is delivered.",[10,989,990],{},"The most useful reading is comparative, against the two averages sitting a few rows away:",[173,992,993,999,1012],{},[176,994,995,998],{},[45,996,997],{},"Close to Avg. Win"," — results are tight. The account behaves the same way most of the time.",[176,1000,1001,1004,1005,151,1008,1011],{},[45,1002,1003],{},"Several times Avg. Win"," — a handful of trades carries the history. Check ",[45,1006,1007],{},"Best Trade (P&L)",[45,1009,1010],{},"Worst Trade (P&L)"," before trusting the totals.",[176,1013,1014,1017],{},[45,1015,1016],{},"Much larger than Avg. Loss"," — at least one loss sits far outside the routine.",[14,1019,100],{"id":99},[10,1021,1022,1023,1026,1027,215],{},"The figures below describe accounts published on ShowMyTrades, not traders in general. Across the published accounts that have trading history (August 2026), the ",[45,1024,1025],{},"median Sharpe ratio is 0.05"," on a ",[45,1028,518],{},[10,1030,1031],{},"Run our own definition backwards and that pairing is precise about dispersion: since Sharpe is the mean trade divided by this standard deviation, a median of 0.05 means the average trade on the middle account is worth roughly one twentieth of the standard deviation of its trades. Routine variation between one trade and the next is about twenty times larger than the edge extracted from them.",[10,1033,1034,1035,1041],{},"On a ",[45,1036,1037,1040],{},[36,1038,1039],{"href":592},"median trade length"," of 2.4 hours",", that is why a full day of results teaches a trader nothing: a day sits well inside the dispersion. It is also why a low figure on a young account is not evidence of control — the sample may simply not contain the outlier the strategy can produce, and squared distances mean that when it arrives, it arrives loudly.",[14,1043,140],{"id":139},[10,1045,1046,1049,1050,1052,1053,1055,1056,1059,1060,1063,1064,1068],{},[45,1047,1048],{},"Standard Deviation"," is the exact label, in the ",[45,1051,146],{}," module of the account page, inside the ",[157,1054,159],{}," column, formatted in the account currency and carrying a tooltip. It sits directly above ",[45,1057,1058],{},"Sharpe Ratio",", the ratio it divides, below ",[45,1061,1062],{},"Profit Factor",", and is calculated on our servers from the stored closed trades. The module is shown by default on published account pages, though ",[36,1065,1067],{"href":1066},"\u002Fguides\u002Fpublic-profile-and-custom-slugs","the owner can hide it",", and it is not part of the embeddable widgets.",[10,1070,1071,1072,1074,1075,578,1077,578,1079,578,1081,151,1083,1085,1086,1088,1089,1093],{},"Read it across to the ",[157,1073,194],{}," column of the same module, where ",[45,1076,581],{},[45,1078,584],{},[45,1080,1007],{},[45,1082,1010],{},[45,1084,190],{}," give the figure its context. The module's ",[45,1087,629],{}," view makes the dispersion visual: every closed trade is one point, holding time in hours across the bottom and profit or loss up the side, so the spread becomes a shape rather than a number. ",[45,1090,1091],{},[36,1092,619],{"href":618}," recomputes the whole block on a filtered subset — Date Range, Symbols, Magic Numbers, Trade Type, Lot Size and more — which shows whether the dispersion belongs to the strategy or to one instrument.",[14,1095,171],{"id":170},[173,1097,1098,1104,1115,1121],{},[176,1099,1100,1103],{},[45,1101,1102],{},"\"It is a percentage.\""," Ours is an amount of money per trade. Comparing it between accounts of different size is meaningless without the balance beside it.",[176,1105,1106,1109,1110,1114],{},[45,1107,1108],{},"\"It measures market volatility.\""," It measures the ",[36,1111,1113],{"href":1112},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-volatility","volatility"," of your results. A calm market traded with escalating size produces a large figure.",[176,1116,1117,1120],{},[45,1118,1119],{},"\"Low standard deviation means low risk.\""," Only closed trades enter it. Systems that hold losers open post uniformly small closed results while the real exposure sits in floating positions.",[176,1122,1123,1126],{},[45,1124,1125],{},"\"A low figure on 30 trades is reassuring.\""," Below a few hundred trades, treat it as provisional.",[10,1128,1129,1130,215],{},"For how many trades a set of statistics needs before it means anything, see the guide on ",[36,1131,425],{"href":424},{"title":31,"searchDepth":217,"depth":217,"links":1133},[1134,1135,1136,1137,1138],{"id":16,"depth":217,"text":17},{"id":71,"depth":217,"text":72},{"id":99,"depth":217,"text":100},{"id":139,"depth":217,"text":140},{"id":170,"depth":217,"text":171},"Standard deviation measures how far a single trade lands from your average trade. Here is the formula we use, net of costs, and how to read it on thousands of accounts.",{},[1142,1143,232,1144],"what-is-the-sharpe-ratio","what-is-volatility","what-is-the-sortino-ratio",{"title":902,"description":1139},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-standard-deviation-in-trading","erd9RmXvwGmqWy07DwcKxdN6CBwW8ySYP01l-ftXMHQ",1787415693011]