[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":935},["ShallowReactive",2],{"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-curve-fitting":3,"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-curve-fitting-related":244},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":229,"date":230,"description":231,"draft":232,"extension":233,"meta":234,"navigation":232,"path":235,"related":236,"seo":240,"stem":241,"term":242,"updated":230,"__hash__":243},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-curve-fitting.md","What Is Curve Fitting? How to Spot an Overfit Strategy",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":221},"minimark",[9,13,18,21,32,35,38,73,77,80,88,92,116,124,132,136,147,183,187,213],[10,11,12],"p",{},"Curve fitting, also called overfitting, is tuning a strategy's parameters until it fits the historical data it was tested on, including that data's noise. The result describes the past precisely and predicts nothing. It is the most common reason a system that looked excellent in testing loses money the month it goes live.",[14,15,17],"h2",{"id":16},"how-it-works","How it works",[10,19,20],{},"Every adjustable input is a degree of freedom. Search a grid of values and you are not testing one strategy, you are running one experiment per combination:",[22,23,28],"pre",{"className":24,"code":26,"language":27},[25],"language-text","Experiments = v1 × v2 × ... × vk\n\n4 parameters × 15 values each = 50,625 backtests\nThe best of 50,625 is chosen partly for its edge and\npartly for the noise it happened to land on\n","text",[29,30,26],"code",{"__ignoreMap":31},"",[10,33,34],{},"The more experiments you run against a fixed history, the more certain it becomes that the winner owes its ranking to luck. The tester does not report this. It reports the winner as if it were the only candidate.",[10,36,37],{},"Four signs, in rough order of reliability:",[39,40,41,55,61,67],"ul",{},[42,43,44,48,49,54],"li",{},[45,46,47],"strong",{},"Parameter cliffs."," Move a setting one notch either way and performance collapses. A real edge degrades gently; a fitted one falls off a table. A ",[50,51,53],"a",{"href":52},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-moving-average","moving average"," that only works at period 47 is the textbook case.",[42,56,57,60],{},[45,58,59],{},"Too many parameters for the sample."," A rule set with six inputs validated on 150 trades is under-determined. There is no fixed ratio, but the direction is not in dispute.",[42,62,63,66],{},[45,64,65],{},"A suspiciously smooth equity curve."," Real returns are jagged. A near-straight diagonal in a backtest usually means either a fitted parameter set or a system that survives by not closing losers.",[42,68,69,72],{},[45,70,71],{},"Out-of-sample collapse."," Performance that holds in the fitting window and evaporates outside it. This is the definitive test, and it is only definitive the first time you look at the out-of-sample data.",[14,74,76],{"id":75},"why-it-matters","Why it matters",[10,78,79],{},"A curve-fitted system fails in a specific and expensive way: it does not lose slowly from the start. It behaves acceptably while the market resembles the fitting period, then breaks when the regime changes, usually with size on. The trader reads it as bad luck rather than as the model doing exactly what it was built to do.",[10,81,82,83,87],{},"The antidote is not a cleverer test. It is a live record, carrying real spread, commission and ",[50,84,86],{"href":85},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-slippage","slippage",", long enough to have met conditions the developer never saw.",[14,89,91],{"id":90},"what-the-data-shows","What the data shows",[10,93,94,95,99,100,103,104,99,108,111,112,115],{},"Across the public accounts on ShowMyTrades with trading history (August 2026): median ",[50,96,98],{"href":97},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","profit factor"," ",[45,101,102],{},"1.28",", median deepest ",[50,105,107],{"href":106},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","drawdown",[45,109,110],{},"9.7%",", and a median of ",[45,113,114],{},"171 closed trades"," per account.",[10,117,118,119,123],{},"Those three numbers are the honest reference distribution. 38.2% of accounts have reached a drawdown over 20% and 17.6% over 50%. When a strategy is advertised with a profit factor above 3.0 and a ",[50,120,122],{"href":121},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","maximum drawdown"," of 4%, it is not claiming talent, it is claiming a position outside a distribution built from 15.4 million synchronised trades. That claim can be true. It requires evidence, and the evidence is live.",[10,125,126,127,131],{},"The median of 171 closed trades is worth holding onto separately: it is ",[50,128,130],{"href":129},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-much-history-a-track-record-needs","a small sample for validating anything",", and it is the sample most live accounts are actually judged on.",[14,133,135],{"id":134},"where-you-see-it-on-showmytrades","Where you see it on ShowMyTrades",[10,137,138,139,142,143,146],{},"The ",[45,140,141],{},"Growth by Trade"," chart in the charts viewer indexes the curve by trade number instead of by date, which strips out the flattering effect of long idle periods and exposes whether the account is still working or merely still open. The ",[45,144,145],{},"Monthly Returns table"," shows every red month and every \"No Activity\" gap — a strategy quietly re-optimised after a bad month usually leaves a visible pause there.",[10,148,149,150,153,154,160,161,164,165,168,169,160,172,175,176,182],{},"In the Advanced Statistics block, read ",[45,151,152],{},"Profit Factor"," beside ",[45,155,156],{},[50,157,159],{"href":158},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-standard-deviation-in-trading","Standard Deviation"," and ",[45,162,163],{},"Z-Score (Probability)",": a strong profit factor resting on unusually uniform trade returns describes an account too smooth to have met varied conditions, which is what a parameter set shaped around a single period tends to produce. The ",[45,166,167],{},"Custom Analysis"," panel's ",[45,170,171],{},"Magic Numbers",[45,173,174],{},"Comment Filter"," let you isolate one expert advisor on a multi-strategy account and read its statistics alone. The ",[45,177,178],{},[50,179,181],{"href":180},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","Track Record Verified"," badge, on 65 accounts today, confirms the data came from the broker rather than from a report file.",[14,184,186],{"id":185},"common-misunderstandings","Common misunderstandings",[39,188,189,195,201,207],{},[42,190,191,194],{},[45,192,193],{},"\"It passed out-of-sample.\""," Once you have looked at the out-of-sample results and adjusted anything, that data is in-sample. You get one look.",[42,196,197,200],{},[45,198,199],{},"\"More history prevents overfitting.\""," What matters is the ratio of observations to free parameters, not the calendar span. Adding years while adding filters can make it worse.",[42,202,203,206],{},[45,204,205],{},"\"Walk-forward optimisation solves it.\""," It reduces the problem and can reproduce it: re-optimising every window on the same instrument is still a search over one history.",[42,208,209,212],{},[45,210,211],{},"\"It's live, so it can't be curve fitted.\""," A system re-tuned every time it stumbles is being fitted in production. The account is real; the edge is still being invented backwards.",[10,214,215,216,220],{},"To see what separates a record that settles this question from one that cannot, read ",[50,217,219],{"href":218},"\u002Fguides\u002Fverified-vs-unverified-track-records","verified vs unverified track records",".",{"title":31,"searchDepth":222,"depth":222,"links":223},2,[224,225,226,227,228],{"id":16,"depth":222,"text":17},{"id":75,"depth":222,"text":76},{"id":90,"depth":222,"text":91},{"id":134,"depth":222,"text":135},{"id":185,"depth":222,"text":186},"Strategy","2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","Curve fitting is optimising a strategy until it describes past data perfectly and predicts nothing. The warning signs, and why only live results settle it.",true,"md",{},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-curve-fitting",[237,238,239],"what-is-backtesting","what-is-a-profit-factor","what-is-a-verified-track-record",{"title":5,"description":231},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-curve-fitting","Curve Fitting","vqLjOQR1TVBKQwjtcbTsRhfF1UU3Px_k_Vsr9UBTTqY",[245,530,715],{"id":246,"title":247,"body":248,"category":519,"date":230,"description":520,"draft":521,"extension":233,"meta":522,"navigation":232,"path":97,"related":523,"seo":527,"stem":528,"term":152,"updated":230,"__hash__":529},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor.md","What Is Profit Factor? Formula, Good Values, Real Data",{"type":7,"value":249,"toc":512},[250,253,255,261,264,267,273,276,344,346,349,355,363,365,380,387,393,400,410,412,441,468,470,505],[10,251,252],{},"Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss: the total won across all winning trades, divided by the total lost across all losing trades. A profit factor of 1.50 means the account made $1.50 for every $1.00 it gave back. Below 1.00 the account loses money by construction, regardless of how often it wins.",[14,254,17],{"id":16},[22,256,259],{"className":257,"code":258,"language":27},[25],"Profit Factor = Gross Profit \u002F |Gross Loss|\n",[29,260,258],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,262,263],{},"Note what the formula ignores: how long the account traded, how much capital it used, and how deep it fell along the way.",[10,265,266],{},"It can also be written in terms of win rate and average trade size, which is where it becomes diagnostic:",[22,268,271],{"className":269,"code":270,"language":27},[25],"Profit Factor = (Win Rate × Avg Win) \u002F ((1 − Win Rate) × Avg Loss)\n",[29,272,270],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,274,275],{},"Two very different systems can land on the same value. A 30% win rate with winners four times the size of losers gives 1.71. An 80% win rate with winners half the size of losers gives 2.00. Both work; they fail differently and feel completely different to trade.",[277,278,279,292],"table",{},[280,281,282],"thead",{},[283,284,285,289],"tr",{},[286,287,288],"th",{},"Profit factor",[286,290,291],{},"Reading",[293,294,295,304,312,320,328,336],"tbody",{},[283,296,297,301],{},[298,299,300],"td",{},"Below 1.00",[298,302,303],{},"Loses money — structurally, not marginally",[283,305,306,309],{},[298,307,308],{},"1.00 – 1.10",[298,310,311],{},"Inside the noise. One bad week erases it",[283,313,314,317],{},[298,315,316],{},"1.10 – 1.30",[298,318,319],{},"Thin but real edge, if the sample is large",[283,321,322,325],{},[298,323,324],{},"1.30 – 2.00",[298,326,327],{},"A working strategy",[283,329,330,333],{},[298,331,332],{},"2.00 – 3.00",[298,334,335],{},"Strong. Check trade count and cost accounting",[283,337,338,341],{},[298,339,340],{},"Above 3.00",[298,342,343],{},"Rare on long histories: usually a short sample, a few outsized winners, or open losers not yet realised",[14,345,76],{"id":75},[10,347,348],{},"Profit factor is the cleanest single answer to \"does this system make money\", and it is much harder to dress up than a win rate, because every loss enters the denominator at full size.",[10,350,351,352,354],{},"It is not, however, a risk measure. Profit factor knows nothing about sequence: an account that made its money in one month and bled for eleven shows the same value as one that ground upward every week. Read it next to ",[50,353,122],{"href":121},", or you are measuring the destination without the trip.",[10,356,357,358,362],{},"The same caution applies to a profit factor quoted from a ",[50,359,361],{"href":360},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-backtesting","backtest",": optimisers maximise exactly this ratio, so a high backtested value often measures the fitting process rather than the strategy.",[14,364,91],{"id":90},[10,366,367,368,371,372,379],{},"The figures below describe accounts published on ShowMyTrades, not traders in general. Across the published accounts that have trading history (August 2026), the ",[45,369,370],{},"median profit factor is 1.28"," and the ",[45,373,374,378],{},[50,375,377],{"href":376},"\u002Fguides\u002Fwin-rate-is-not-an-edge","median win rate"," is 68.8%",". Both are calculated after costs here: swap and commission are folded into each trade before it is classed as a winner or a loser, so 1.28 is net, not gross.",[10,381,382],{},[383,384],"img",{"alt":385,"src":386},"Medians across public ShowMyTrades accounts: a 68.8% win rate beside a 1.28 profit factor","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fwin-rate-vs-payoff.svg",[10,388,389],{},[390,391,392],"em",{},"Two medians from the same set: the win rate looks strong, the edge behind it is thin.",[10,394,395,396,399],{},"That pairing is the point. Nearly seven trades in ten close green on the median account, and the whole edge still amounts to $1.28 earned for every $1.00 lost. Take an account sitting on both medians and invert the formula: its average winner is worth roughly ",[45,397,398],{},"0.58×"," its average loser. Winning often and earning well are separate achievements, and the first is far easier to manufacture — hold losers, cut winners, and the win rate climbs while the profit factor falls.",[10,401,402,403,406,407,409],{},"The median Sharpe ratio on the same set is ",[45,404,405],{},"0.05",", and the median account has ",[45,408,114],{},". At that sample size a profit factor above 3.00 is not evidence of a superior system; it is evidence that the sample is too small to have met its worst trade yet.",[14,411,135],{"id":134},[10,413,414,416,417,420,421,424,425,424,428,424,431,424,434,160,437,440],{},[45,415,152],{}," sits in the ",[45,418,419],{},"Advanced Statistics"," module on every published account page, alongside the numbers that explain it: ",[45,422,423],{},"Win Rate",", ",[45,426,427],{},"Avg. Win",[45,429,430],{},"Avg. Loss",[45,432,433],{},"Expectancy",[45,435,436],{},"Total Trades",[45,438,439],{},"Sharpe Ratio",". The six together say what the single ratio cannot.",[10,442,443,444,447,448,160,451,454,455,160,458,461,462,467],{},"Two product details matter. First, the costs already inside the ratio are itemised separately: the trades table carries ",[45,445,446],{},"Profit (Gross)"," with ",[45,449,450],{},"Swap",[45,452,453],{},"Commission"," as their own columns, and Advanced Statistics totals ",[45,456,457],{},"Total Commissions",[45,459,460],{},"Total Swap Paid",", so you can see how much the net figure absorbed. Across published accounts those totals stand at $4,782,670 in commissions and $862,547 in swap. Second, ",[50,463,465],{"href":464},"\u002Fguides\u002Fcustom-analysis-and-filter-presets",[45,466,167],{}," recomputes the whole statistics block on a filtered subset — by date range, symbol, magic number, direction or lot size — which is how you check whether a profit factor holds up outside its best quarter or without its best symbol.",[14,469,186],{"id":185},[39,471,472,482,493,499],{},[42,473,474,477,478,220],{},[45,475,476],{},"\"Profit factor above 1 means I am profitable.\""," Only if costs are inside the ratio. Where they are not, a high-frequency system at 1.05 gross can be flat or negative ",[50,479,481],{"href":480},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-cost-percentage","once commission and swap are applied",[42,483,484,487,488,492],{},[45,485,486],{},"\"A high profit factor means low risk.\""," It says nothing about drawdown, position size or sequence. A martingale ",[50,489,491],{"href":490},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","position-sizing"," progression can post 4.00 right up to the day it does not.",[42,494,495,498],{},[45,496,497],{},"\"It is comparable across timeframes.\""," It is not annualised. A scalper's 1.20 over 20,000 trades and a swing trader's 1.20 over 60 are not the same statement.",[42,500,501,504],{},[45,502,503],{},"\"Open trades do not affect it.\""," They do, by absence. Floating losses left open are excluded from gross loss entirely, which inflates the ratio until the position is closed.",[10,506,507,508,220],{},"For which metrics to track over time and in what order, see ",[50,509,511],{"href":510},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftracking-trading-performance","the guide to tracking trading performance",{"title":31,"searchDepth":222,"depth":222,"links":513},[514,515,516,517,518],{"id":16,"depth":222,"text":17},{"id":75,"depth":222,"text":76},{"id":90,"depth":222,"text":91},{"id":134,"depth":222,"text":135},{"id":185,"depth":222,"text":186},"Metrics","Profit factor is gross profit divided by gross loss. Below 1.0 an account loses by construction. Here are the bands and the 1.28 median across thousands of accounts.",false,{},[524,525,526,237],"what-is-drawdown","what-is-maximum-drawdown","what-is-position-sizing",{"title":247,"description":520},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","0loLRuqRU0mx9nEOfjdEFW6U1Fb_JAC1jN2JQSkIjuE",{"id":531,"title":532,"body":533,"category":705,"date":230,"description":706,"draft":521,"extension":233,"meta":707,"navigation":232,"path":180,"related":708,"seo":711,"stem":712,"term":713,"updated":230,"__hash__":714},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record.md","What Is a Verified Track Record? Definition and Checks",{"type":7,"value":534,"toc":698},[535,538,540,562,568,571,577,582,584,594,597,599,609,624,626,648,659,661,691],[10,536,537],{},"A verified track record is a record of trading results that arrives directly from the broker through a read-only connection, continuously, with no step in the chain where the publisher can edit, delete or re-order anything. It is the difference between a claim and evidence. Two separate questions hide inside the phrase, and most arguments about verification come from confusing them.",[14,539,17],{"id":16},[10,541,542,543,424,547,551,552,556,557,561],{},"The first question is whether the data is real. That is answered by the connection itself: a channel that can read the account but never write to it, running without interruption, so the record is built continuously rather than exported at a convenient moment. On ShowMyTrades that channel is one of four — an Expert Advisor installed in MetaTrader 4 or 5, a direct connection using the ",[50,544,546],{"href":545},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-mt4-investor-password","MT4 investor password",[50,548,550],{"href":549},"\u002Fctrader-account-tracking","cTrader OAuth2 authorisation",", or the ",[50,553,555],{"href":554},"\u002Ftradelocker-tracking","TradeLocker REST API",". None of them can place, modify or close an order. Read-only credentials are the industry mechanism for this, and third-party trackers such as ",[50,558,560],{"href":559},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-myfxbook","Myfxbook"," connect MetaTrader accounts the same way.",[22,563,566],{"className":564,"code":565,"language":27},[25],"broker server → read-only connection → ShowMyTrades → public page\n                no editable step anywhere in the chain\n",[29,567,565],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,569,570],{},"The second question is whether the person publishing the page owns the account. A read-only feed proves the trades exist; it does not prove whose they are, because an investor password can be handed to anyone. Closing that gap requires an action only someone with trading rights can perform: placing a pending order at an unreachable price with the publisher's user ID in the comment field. On cTrader, one OAuth authorisation answers both questions at once.",[10,572,573],{},[383,574],{"alt":575,"src":576},"Track Record Verified answers whether the data arrived from the broker through a channel that cannot place, modify or close an order; Trading Privileges Verified answers whether the publisher controls the account","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Ftwo-badges.svg",[10,578,579],{},[390,580,581],{},"A record can pass one and fail the other, which is why they are counted separately.",[14,583,76],{"id":75},[10,585,586,587,371,589,593],{},"Everything downstream of the connection is arithmetic. If the inputs can be edited, the profit factor, the ",[50,588,107],{"href":106},[50,590,592],{"href":591},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve","equity curve"," are all decoration, no matter how detailed the page looks. A screenshot, a PDF statement and a spreadsheet share the same defect: they are produced by the person asking you to trust them.",[10,595,596],{},"Continuity matters as much as read-only access. A record that can be paused and resumed lets a bad month disappear. When the feed is continuous, an interruption is itself visible on the page — which is information, not an absence of it.",[14,598,91],{"id":90},[10,600,601,602,160,605,608],{},"Verification is opt-in and requires effort, and the numbers reflect that. Across the 10,000+ accounts published on ShowMyTrades (August 2026), only ",[45,603,604],{},"65 carry Track Record Verified",[45,606,607],{},"264 carry Trading Privileges Verified",". More accounts prove ownership than prove data provenance, because placing one pending order is easier than changing a password at the broker.",[10,610,611,612,616,617,620,621,623],{},"Verified does not mean good. Across the public accounts with trading history, median ",[50,613,615],{"href":614},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","time-weighted return"," is ",[45,618,619],{},"+3.2%",", 63.0% are positive, and the median deepest drawdown is ",[45,622,110],{}," — with 17.6% of accounts having lost more than half their peak value at some point. That distribution, built from 15,436,464 synchronised trades, is what an honest record looks like, and it is nothing like the ones used in advertising.",[14,625,135],{"id":134},[10,627,628,629,632,633,160,636,639,640,643,644,647],{},"Both badges sit in the ",[45,630,631],{},"Certifications"," group in the header of every account page, above the numbers: ",[45,634,635],{},"Track Record",[45,637,638],{},"Trading Privileges",", green when granted and grey when not, each with a tooltip explaining what it certifies for that platform. The same group also shows ",[45,641,642],{},"Real Account"," or ",[45,645,646],{},"Demo Account",", derived from the broker server rather than self-declared.",[10,649,650,651,654,655,658],{},"Verification is managed in the account settings, where the ",[45,652,653],{},"Investor Password (Optional)"," field lives — clear it and the Track Record badge turns grey on the same save. Both badges are also rendered inside the ",[45,656,657],{},"Complete Dashboard"," widget, which embeds the account header, so an embed on someone else's site carries its own provenance.",[14,660,186],{"id":185},[39,662,663,673,679,685],{},[42,664,665,99,668,672],{},[45,666,667],{},"A link to a tracking site is not verification.",[50,669,671],{"href":670},"\u002Fguides\u002Fthird-party-verification-explained","Any platform can host an unverified account",". Look for the badge on the page, not for the domain in the URL.",[42,674,675,678],{},[45,676,677],{},"Track Record Verified does not prove ownership."," It proves the trades are real. Someone reselling another trader's investor password can produce a genuine feed of trades that are not theirs.",[42,680,681,684],{},[45,682,683],{},"Verified is not the same as profitable."," The badge certifies provenance and nothing else. Read gain and drawdown together afterwards.",[42,686,687,690],{},[45,688,689],{},"A verified demo account is still a demo account."," Demo fills are optimistic in exactly the conditions where live fills hurt.",[10,692,693,694,220],{},"The procedure for both badges, step by step: ",[50,695,697],{"href":696},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-to-verify-your-account","how to verify your trading account",{"title":31,"searchDepth":222,"depth":222,"links":699},[700,701,702,703,704],{"id":16,"depth":222,"text":17},{"id":75,"depth":222,"text":76},{"id":90,"depth":222,"text":91},{"id":134,"depth":222,"text":135},{"id":185,"depth":222,"text":186},"Verification","A verified track record is performance data pulled straight from the broker through a read-only link, continuously, with nothing the publisher can edit.",{},[709,710,524],"what-is-an-mt4-investor-password","what-is-myfxbook",{"title":532,"description":706},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","Verified Track Record","im3JV0qh8wz_ZbgStl23aUhUUL79OEa_VDXyYyMF254",{"id":716,"title":717,"body":718,"category":229,"date":230,"description":926,"draft":521,"extension":233,"meta":927,"navigation":232,"path":360,"related":928,"seo":931,"stem":932,"term":933,"updated":230,"__hash__":934},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-backtesting.md","What Is Backtesting? Definition, Limits and Live Data",{"type":7,"value":719,"toc":919},[720,723,725,728,734,737,766,773,775,778,781,783,794,813,824,830,835,837,845,872,881,883,912],[10,721,722],{},"Backtesting is the simulation of a trading strategy against historical price data to estimate how it would have performed. It produces an equity curve, a profit factor and a drawdown figure without a single order ever reaching a broker. Those outputs are a hypothesis about the strategy, not a record of it.",[14,724,17],{"id":16},[10,726,727],{},"The tester replays historical bars or ticks, applies the strategy's entry and exit rules to each one, and records a simulated fill. Everything that separates the simulation from reality lives in the cost and fill model:",[22,729,732],{"className":730,"code":731,"language":27},[25],"Net result per trade = Gross P&L − spread − commission − swap − slippage\n\nSpread cost  = spread (in price) × contract size × lots\nSwap         = swap rate × lots × nights held\n",[29,733,731],{"__ignoreMap":31},[10,735,736],{},"Three settings decide how honest the output is:",[39,738,739,745,756],{},[42,740,741,744],{},[45,742,743],{},"Modelling quality."," MT4 and MT5 report it as a percentage. \"Every tick\" interpolates from 1-minute bars unless you supply real tick data; \"control points\" and \"open prices only\" are approximations that flatter intrabar strategies badly.",[42,746,747,750,751,755],{},[45,748,749],{},"Spread assumption."," Most testers default to a fixed spread. Live spread widens at the rollover, on news and at the session open — exactly the moments many systems trade. A ",[50,752,754],{"href":753},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","spread"," modelled at 0.8 pips and paid at 4.0 pips is a different strategy.",[42,757,758,761,762,765],{},[45,759,760],{},"Slippage and fill logic."," The tester assumes your order is filled at the requested price. ",[50,763,764],{"href":85},"Slippage",", rejected orders, requotes and partial fills do not exist in it.",[10,767,768,769,772],{},"There is a fourth problem the software does not report: the parameter set itself survived a search. If you ran 400 variants and kept the best one, the result you are reading was selected by hindsight. That is ",[50,770,771],{"href":235},"curve fitting",", and it is the single largest gap between tested and live performance.",[14,774,76],{"id":75},[10,776,777],{},"A backtest is the cheapest way to reject a bad idea and the most expensive way to confirm a good one. It can establish that a rule set is mechanically coherent, that it survives a rough cost assumption, and that its drawdown profile is something you could sit through. It cannot establish that the edge exists, because every input it uses is a reconstruction and every parameter it uses was chosen after the data was seen.",[10,779,780],{},"Anyone deciding where to put money should treat a backtest as a screening tool with a veto, never as evidence.",[14,782,91],{"id":90},[10,784,785,786,789,790,793],{},"ShowMyTrades publishes ",[45,787,788],{},"10,000+ accounts"," as public pages, resting on ",[45,791,792],{},"15,436,464 synchronised trades"," (August 2026). Not one of them is simulated: every trade in that count was filled by a broker and read back from it.",[10,795,796,797,800,801,616,803,805,806,616,810,812],{},"That published population is overwhelmingly automated — median autotrading share ",[45,798,799],{},"99%",", with 53.9% of accounts running above 90% automation and 42.2% below 10%. The automated portion consists, in the main, of strategies that were backtested before they were funded. Across the whole published set the median ",[50,802,98],{"href":97},[45,804,102],{}," and the median ",[50,807,809],{"href":808},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-the-sharpe-ratio","Sharpe ratio",[45,811,405],{},". Those are the figures the tester reports were competing against.",[10,814,815,816,819,820,823],{},"Costs are the line a simulation most often understates, and here they are billed rather than assumed: ",[45,817,818],{},"$4,782,670"," charged in commission and ",[45,821,822],{},"$862,547"," in swap, with 86.3% of the accounts that carry any swap paying it net negative. A backtest set to zero swap on a strategy that holds positions overnight is not slightly optimistic; it is missing a recurring charge.",[10,825,826],{},[383,827],{"alt":828,"src":829},"Spread, commission and swap as three separate cost lines: $4,782,670 charged in commission and $862,547 in swap across public ShowMyTrades accounts","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fwhere-costs-hide.svg",[10,831,832],{},[390,833,834],{},"A tester with a fixed spread and no swap has left out two of the three.",[14,836,135],{"id":134},[10,838,839,840,844],{},"Nowhere, deliberately. ShowMyTrades does not host backtests, upload simulations or accept a strategy report as a ",[50,841,843],{"href":842},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-track-record","track record",". Every account page is synced read-only from the broker, which is why the numbers above describe executed trades rather than modelled ones.",[10,846,847,848,160,850,852,853,856,857,160,860,863,864,867,868,871],{},"The modules that expose what a backtest hides are: ",[45,849,457],{},[45,851,460],{}," in the Advanced Statistics block, the real cost of the strategy in account currency; the ",[45,854,855],{},"Terminal"," panel, which reports ",[45,858,859],{},"Ping",[45,861,862],{},"Retransmission"," to the trade server, the conditions your fills were actually obtained under; and ",[45,865,866],{},"Trade History & Balance Progression",", whose ",[45,869,870],{},"Closed Trades"," tab lists each executed order at the price it was genuinely filled at rather than the price a tester would have granted it.",[10,873,138,874,876,877,880],{},[45,875,181],{}," badge, held by 65 accounts, and ",[45,878,879],{},"Trading Privileges Verified",", held by 264, mark the records where that broker-to-page chain has been checked rather than asserted.",[14,882,186],{"id":185},[39,884,885,891,900,906],{},[42,886,887,890],{},[45,888,889],{},"\"It used every tick, so it is accurate.\""," Tick modelling improves the price path, not the fill. Your broker's spread, execution and rejections are still absent.",[42,892,893,99,896,899],{},[45,894,895],{},"\"It was tested over ten years.\"",[50,897,898],{"href":129},"Length is not independence",". A decade that contained one dominant regime is one observation, not 2,500.",[42,901,902,905],{},[45,903,904],{},"\"Only three parameters were optimised.\""," Three parameters at twenty values each is 8,000 experiments. The winner of 8,000 experiments is partly lucky by construction.",[42,907,908,911],{},[45,909,910],{},"\"The demo forward test confirmed it.\""," Demo servers fill optimistically and never reject. A demo result is a second simulation, not a first live test.",[10,913,914,915,220],{},"Before you trust any performance figure, tested or live, work through ",[50,916,918],{"href":917},"\u002Fguides\u002Fverifying-trading-performance-claims","how to verify trading performance claims",{"title":31,"searchDepth":222,"depth":222,"links":920},[921,922,923,924,925],{"id":16,"depth":222,"text":17},{"id":75,"depth":222,"text":76},{"id":90,"depth":222,"text":91},{"id":134,"depth":222,"text":135},{"id":185,"depth":222,"text":186},"Backtesting simulates a trading strategy on historical price data. What it can prove, what it cannot, and why live broker-synced results almost always differ.",{},[929,239,930],"what-is-curve-fitting","what-is-slippage",{"title":717,"description":926},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-backtesting","Backtesting","he7JKboqSnysaWcJ_U_Uz3xPVvizet9GFQbrgkBSinQ",1787415685461]