[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1145},["ShallowReactive",2],{"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return":3,"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return-related":273},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":257,"date":258,"description":259,"draft":260,"extension":261,"meta":262,"navigation":260,"path":263,"related":264,"seo":269,"stem":270,"term":271,"updated":258,"__hash__":272},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return.md","What Is Time-Weighted Return (TWR)?",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":249},"minimark",[9,18,23,26,37,40,47,54,60,71,77,80,84,87,100,104,115,140,156,160,180,206,210,242],[10,11,12,13,17],"p",{},"Time-weighted return, or TWR, measures the return produced by trading decisions alone, with deposits and withdrawals removed. It cuts the account's history at every cash flow, measures each piece separately, and compounds the pieces together. It is the number shown as ",[14,15,16],"strong",{},"Gain"," on ShowMyTrades account pages.",[19,20,22],"h2",{"id":21},"how-it-works","How it works",[10,24,25],{},"Money moving in or out changes the balance without anyone trading. TWR handles that by never letting a cash flow enter a return calculation:",[27,28,33],"pre",{"className":29,"code":31,"language":32},[30],"language-text","TWR = [(1 + r₁) × (1 + r₂) × … × (1 + rₙ)] − 1\n\nrᵢ = Profit in period i \u002F Balance at the start of period i\n","text",[34,35,31],"code",{"__ignoreMap":36},"",[10,38,39],{},"Each period runs between cash flows. A deposit ends one period and starts the next at the new, larger balance; it never appears in a numerator. On ShowMyTrades the sub-periods are days: each day's return is measured against the balance standing at its start, net of the costs charged inside it, and the days are compounded.",[10,41,42,43,46],{},"Worth stating plainly. Fund an account with $10,000 and make $2,000: the first period returned 20%. Deposit another $10,000, taking the balance to $22,000, then make $2,000 again: the second period returned 9.1%, because the base was larger. The balance shows +$4,000 on $20,000 put in. TWR shows (1 + 0.20) × (1 + 0.091) − 1 = ",[14,44,45],{},"+30.9%",". The deposit itself earned nothing.",[10,48,49],{},[50,51],"img",{"alt":52,"src":53},"A $10,000 deposit steps the balance line up while the time-weighted return line stays exactly where it was","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fdeposit-vs-twr.svg",[10,55,56],{},[57,58,59],"em",{},"The balance jumps the day money arrives. Gain does not.",[10,61,62,63,70],{},"This is what separates it from ",[14,64,65],{},[66,67,69],"a",{"href":68},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-absolute-gain","Abs. Gain",", the other percentage on the same panel:",[27,72,75],{"className":73,"code":74,"language":32},[30],"Abs. Gain = Net closed P&L \u002F Total deposits × 100\n",[34,76,74],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,78,79],{},"Abs. Gain answers what the account returned on the money put in; TWR answers how well the money was traded. Both are honest, but only one is comparable across accounts of different sizes and funding patterns.",[19,81,83],{"id":82},"why-it-matters","Why it matters",[10,85,86],{},"TWR is the reason a track record can be compared at all. Without it, a percentage can be improved by depositing into a drawdown: a $5,000 loss on a $10,000 account is −50%, and a $10,000 top-up the next day makes the same unrecovered hole read as −33% of the new balance.",[10,88,89,90,94,95,99],{},"It cuts the other way too, which is why it is the fair number rather than the flattering one. A withdrawal does not raise TWR, and a well-timed deposit before a good month does not either. What remains is the ",[66,91,93],{"href":92},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve","equity curve"," of decisions — the only part a reader of a ",[66,96,98],{"href":97},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","verified track record"," can hold the trader responsible for.",[19,101,103],{"id":102},"what-the-data-shows","What the data shows",[10,105,106,107,110,111,114],{},"The figures below describe accounts published on ShowMyTrades, not traders in general. Across the published accounts that have trading history (August 2026), the ",[14,108,109],{},"median time-weighted return is +3.2%",", and ",[14,112,113],{},"63.0%"," of them are positive on a time-weighted basis.",[10,116,117,118,126,127,130,131,135,136,139],{},"Two readings follow. First, a majority of published accounts do make money by this measure — the distribution is not the wasteland the internet claims. Second, the middle of that distribution is small: +3.2% against a ",[14,119,120,121,125],{},"median deepest ",[66,122,124],{"href":123},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","drawdown"," of 9.7%",", so the typical account gave up about three times its eventual return along the way. The same set shows ",[14,128,129],{},"38.2%"," of accounts having been ",[66,132,134],{"href":133},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","more than 20% underwater"," at some point, and ",[14,137,138],{},"17.6%"," more than 50%.",[10,141,142,143,146,147,150,151,155],{},"The median account here has ",[14,144,145],{},"171 closed trades",", drawn from ",[14,148,149],{},"15,436,464 synchronised trades"," overall. A large TWR on a short history is ",[66,152,154],{"href":153},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-much-history-a-track-record-needs","a statement about a few weeks, not about a method",".",[19,157,159],{"id":158},"where-you-see-it-on-showmytrades","Where you see it on ShowMyTrades",[10,161,162,164,165,168,169,171,172,175,176,179],{},[14,163,16],{}," is the first and boldest row of the ",[14,166,167],{},"Account Stats"," panel on every published account page, and it is TWR. ",[14,170,69],{}," sits directly beneath it so the funding-sensitive figure is never far from the funding-neutral one. ",[14,173,174],{},"Avg Daily %"," and ",[14,177,178],{},"Avg Monthly %",", the next two rows down, are derived from the same time-weighted series.",[10,181,182,183,186,187,190,191,194,195,198,199,205],{},"The ",[14,184,185],{},"charts viewer"," — one panel that switches views rather than a stack of charts — plots it two ways. ",[14,188,189],{},"Growth"," shows daily compounded TWR over the life of the account; ",[14,192,193],{},"Growth by Trade"," plots the same series against trade number instead of the calendar, which makes frequency visible: two accounts at +40% look identical on a calendar and completely different when one took 90 trades and the other 9,000. The ",[14,196,197],{},"Balance"," view shows the raw money, deposits and withdrawals included, which is exactly the picture TWR is designed to correct. The ",[14,200,201],{},[66,202,204],{"href":203},"\u002Fguides\u002Fmonthly-returns-table-explained","monthly returns table"," breaks the same time-weighted series into months and years.",[19,207,209],{"id":208},"common-misunderstandings","Common misunderstandings",[211,212,213,220,230,236],"ul",{},[214,215,216,219],"li",{},[14,217,218],{},"\"TWR is how much money I made.\""," It is not a currency figure. An account can show +80% TWR and a small profit if it was traded at a small size for most of its life.",[214,221,222,225,226,229],{},[14,223,224],{},"\"My deposit lowered my Gain.\""," It cannot. A deposit ends one measurement period and starts another; it contributes no return in either direction. What people usually notice is that the deposit failed to ",[57,227,228],{},"raise"," the percentage the way the balance chart did.",[214,231,232,235],{},[14,233,234],{},"\"TWR and Abs. Gain should agree.\""," They agree only on an account with a single deposit and no withdrawals. Any divergence is information about funding, not an error.",[214,237,238,241],{},[14,239,240],{},"\"It is an annual figure.\""," It is cumulative since the account's first trade, and it is not annualised. A +3.2% over three years and a +3.2% over three months are different results.",[10,243,244,245,155],{},"For worked examples, including how a deposit hides a drawdown, see ",[66,246,248],{"href":247},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftime-weighted-return-explained","time-weighted return explained",{"title":36,"searchDepth":250,"depth":250,"links":251},2,[252,253,254,255,256],{"id":21,"depth":250,"text":22},{"id":82,"depth":250,"text":83},{"id":102,"depth":250,"text":103},{"id":158,"depth":250,"text":159},{"id":208,"depth":250,"text":209},"Metrics","2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","Time-weighted return compounds sub-period returns so deposits and withdrawals drop out. The formula, how it differs from Abs. Gain, and public accounts.",true,"md",{},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return",[265,266,267,268],"what-is-an-equity-curve","what-is-drawdown","what-is-a-verified-track-record","what-is-expectancy",{"title":5,"description":259},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","Time-Weighted Return","xsUg8bgIFRZ18pjGPDUe3u66QKPQWOoj4hi9EmB2Cow",[274,461,705,901],{"id":275,"title":276,"body":277,"category":450,"date":258,"description":451,"draft":452,"extension":261,"meta":453,"navigation":260,"path":97,"related":454,"seo":457,"stem":458,"term":459,"updated":258,"__hash__":460},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record.md","What Is a Verified Track Record? Definition and Checks",{"type":7,"value":278,"toc":443},[279,282,284,307,313,316,322,327,329,338,341,343,353,368,370,392,403,405,436],[10,280,281],{},"A verified track record is a record of trading results that arrives directly from the broker through a read-only connection, continuously, with no step in the chain where the publisher can edit, delete or re-order anything. It is the difference between a claim and evidence. Two separate questions hide inside the phrase, and most arguments about verification come from confusing them.",[19,283,22],{"id":21},[10,285,286,287,291,292,296,297,301,302,306],{},"The first question is whether the data is real. That is answered by the connection itself: a channel that can read the account but never write to it, running without interruption, so the record is built continuously rather than exported at a convenient moment. On ShowMyTrades that channel is one of four — an Expert Advisor installed in MetaTrader 4 or 5, a direct connection using the ",[66,288,290],{"href":289},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-mt4-investor-password","MT4 investor password",", ",[66,293,295],{"href":294},"\u002Fctrader-account-tracking","cTrader OAuth2 authorisation",", or the ",[66,298,300],{"href":299},"\u002Ftradelocker-tracking","TradeLocker REST API",". None of them can place, modify or close an order. Read-only credentials are the industry mechanism for this, and third-party trackers such as ",[66,303,305],{"href":304},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-myfxbook","Myfxbook"," connect MetaTrader accounts the same way.",[27,308,311],{"className":309,"code":310,"language":32},[30],"broker server → read-only connection → ShowMyTrades → public page\n                no editable step anywhere in the chain\n",[34,312,310],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,314,315],{},"The second question is whether the person publishing the page owns the account. A read-only feed proves the trades exist; it does not prove whose they are, because an investor password can be handed to anyone. Closing that gap requires an action only someone with trading rights can perform: placing a pending order at an unreachable price with the publisher's user ID in the comment field. On cTrader, one OAuth authorisation answers both questions at once.",[10,317,318],{},[50,319],{"alt":320,"src":321},"Track Record Verified answers whether the data arrived from the broker through a channel that cannot place, modify or close an order; Trading Privileges Verified answers whether the publisher controls the account","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Ftwo-badges.svg",[10,323,324],{},[57,325,326],{},"A record can pass one and fail the other, which is why they are counted separately.",[19,328,83],{"id":82},[10,330,331,332,334,335,337],{},"Everything downstream of the connection is arithmetic. If the inputs can be edited, the profit factor, the ",[66,333,124],{"href":123}," and the ",[66,336,93],{"href":92}," are all decoration, no matter how detailed the page looks. A screenshot, a PDF statement and a spreadsheet share the same defect: they are produced by the person asking you to trust them.",[10,339,340],{},"Continuity matters as much as read-only access. A record that can be paused and resumed lets a bad month disappear. When the feed is continuous, an interruption is itself visible on the page — which is information, not an absence of it.",[19,342,103],{"id":102},[10,344,345,346,175,349,352],{},"Verification is opt-in and requires effort, and the numbers reflect that. Across the 10,000+ accounts published on ShowMyTrades (August 2026), only ",[14,347,348],{},"65 carry Track Record Verified",[14,350,351],{},"264 carry Trading Privileges Verified",". More accounts prove ownership than prove data provenance, because placing one pending order is easier than changing a password at the broker.",[10,354,355,356,359,360,363,364,367],{},"Verified does not mean good. Across the public accounts with trading history, median ",[66,357,358],{"href":263},"time-weighted return"," is ",[14,361,362],{},"+3.2%",", 63.0% are positive, and the median deepest drawdown is ",[14,365,366],{},"9.7%"," — with 17.6% of accounts having lost more than half their peak value at some point. That distribution, built from 15,436,464 synchronised trades, is what an honest record looks like, and it is nothing like the ones used in advertising.",[19,369,159],{"id":158},[10,371,372,373,376,377,175,380,383,384,387,388,391],{},"Both badges sit in the ",[14,374,375],{},"Certifications"," group in the header of every account page, above the numbers: ",[14,378,379],{},"Track Record",[14,381,382],{},"Trading Privileges",", green when granted and grey when not, each with a tooltip explaining what it certifies for that platform. The same group also shows ",[14,385,386],{},"Real Account"," or ",[14,389,390],{},"Demo Account",", derived from the broker server rather than self-declared.",[10,393,394,395,398,399,402],{},"Verification is managed in the account settings, where the ",[14,396,397],{},"Investor Password (Optional)"," field lives — clear it and the Track Record badge turns grey on the same save. Both badges are also rendered inside the ",[14,400,401],{},"Complete Dashboard"," widget, which embeds the account header, so an embed on someone else's site carries its own provenance.",[19,404,209],{"id":208},[211,406,407,418,424,430],{},[214,408,409,412,413,417],{},[14,410,411],{},"A link to a tracking site is not verification."," ",[66,414,416],{"href":415},"\u002Fguides\u002Fthird-party-verification-explained","Any platform can host an unverified account",". Look for the badge on the page, not for the domain in the URL.",[214,419,420,423],{},[14,421,422],{},"Track Record Verified does not prove ownership."," It proves the trades are real. Someone reselling another trader's investor password can produce a genuine feed of trades that are not theirs.",[214,425,426,429],{},[14,427,428],{},"Verified is not the same as profitable."," The badge certifies provenance and nothing else. Read gain and drawdown together afterwards.",[214,431,432,435],{},[14,433,434],{},"A verified demo account is still a demo account."," Demo fills are optimistic in exactly the conditions where live fills hurt.",[10,437,438,439,155],{},"The procedure for both badges, step by step: ",[66,440,442],{"href":441},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-to-verify-your-account","how to verify your trading account",{"title":36,"searchDepth":250,"depth":250,"links":444},[445,446,447,448,449],{"id":21,"depth":250,"text":22},{"id":82,"depth":250,"text":83},{"id":102,"depth":250,"text":103},{"id":158,"depth":250,"text":159},{"id":208,"depth":250,"text":209},"Verification","A verified track record is performance data pulled straight from the broker through a read-only link, continuously, with nothing the publisher can edit.",false,{},[455,456,266],"what-is-an-mt4-investor-password","what-is-myfxbook",{"title":276,"description":451},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","Verified Track Record","im3JV0qh8wz_ZbgStl23aUhUUL79OEa_VDXyYyMF254",{"id":462,"title":463,"body":464,"category":257,"date":258,"description":695,"draft":260,"extension":261,"meta":696,"navigation":260,"path":92,"related":697,"seo":701,"stem":702,"term":703,"updated":258,"__hash__":704},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve.md","What Is an Equity Curve? How to Read the Shape",{"type":7,"value":465,"toc":688},[466,469,471,477,480,486,491,497,500,529,531,537,540,542,558,573,584,586,603,624,647,649,681],[10,467,468],{},"An equity curve is a chart of an account's value over time. On a serious account page it is drawn as two lines rather than one: balance, which counts only closed trades, and equity, which adds the floating profit and loss of everything still open. The distance between them is the part of the story the account has not admitted yet.",[19,470,22],{"id":21},[27,472,475],{"className":473,"code":474,"language":32},[30],"Equity = Balance + Floating P&L on open positions\n",[34,476,474],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,478,479],{},"When nothing is open, the two lines sit on top of each other. When positions are open, equity moves and balance does not. A losing position that is never closed keeps the balance line flat and pushes the equity line down; closing it drops the balance line to meet equity, which is why a \"sudden\" loss on a balance chart is usually weeks old.",[10,481,482],{},[50,483],{"alt":484,"src":485},"A smooth balance line with the equity line pulled below it by positions still open at a loss","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fequity-vs-balance.svg",[10,487,488],{},[57,489,490],{},"A balance line stays tidy for as long as the losers stay open.",[10,492,493,494,496],{},"Deposits and withdrawals move both lines vertically without any trading happening, which is why a raw curve cannot be read as a return. That correction is what ",[66,495,358],{"href":263}," exists to make.",[10,498,499],{},"The shape carries as much information as the endpoint:",[211,501,502,508,514,523],{},[214,503,504,507],{},[14,505,506],{},"Jagged, rising, with visible pullbacks."," Normal. Every strategy has losing runs, and their absence is the anomaly.",[214,509,510,513],{},[14,511,512],{},"A near-straight diagonal on the balance line."," A warning, not a compliment. It usually means losers are held open while winners are closed — grid, averaging-down or martingale behaviour — and the risk has moved into the equity line where a balance-only chart cannot show it.",[214,515,516,519,520,155],{},[14,517,518],{},"Long flat stretches broken by vertical steps."," Position sizing changed, or the account traded rarely and heavily. ",[66,521,522],{"href":153},"Read the trade count before reading the slope",[214,524,525,528],{},[14,526,527],{},"A clean climb that ends abruptly."," The classic single-blow-up shape: many small wins funding one loss large enough to end the account.",[19,530,83],{"id":82},[10,532,533,534,536],{},"The curve is where duration becomes visible. A headline number tells you the worst ",[66,535,124],{"href":123}," was 18%; only the curve tells you it lasted nine months, which is the part people actually quit over.",[10,538,539],{},"It is also the fastest lie detector on a track record. Claims are made about returns, rarely about shape, and the shape is much harder to manufacture — a balance line that has never had a bad week either did not trade through one or is not closing its bad trades.",[19,541,103],{"id":102},[10,543,106,544,547,548,551,552,554,555,557],{},[14,545,546],{},"median deepest drawdown is 9.7%"," measured on equity. ",[14,549,550],{},"38.5%"," of accounts have never been more than 5% below their own peak, ",[14,553,129],{}," have been more than 20% below it, and ",[14,556,138],{}," more than 50% below.",[10,559,560,561,564,565,569,570,572],{},"Set that beside a ",[14,562,563],{},"median time-weighted return of +3.2%"," and the honest shape appears: modest slope, real dents, and ",[66,566,568],{"href":567},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-recovery-factor","a worst dent several times larger than the eventual gain",". The median account arrived there over ",[14,571,145],{},", which is the context every smooth-looking curve has to be read against — the fewer trades behind a curve, the less its smoothness can mean.",[10,574,575,576,579,580,583],{},"The equity-versus-balance gap is measurable too. Every account carries both a ",[14,577,578],{},"Drawdown"," figure on equity and a ",[14,581,582],{},"DD on Balance"," figure on closed results only. A wide gap between the two is the numeric version of the straight-diagonal warning: the balance line is being kept tidy by positions that are still open.",[19,585,159],{"id":158},[10,587,182,588,590,591,291,593,291,595,291,598,175,600,602],{},[14,589,185],{}," on every published account page is a single panel that switches between five views — ",[14,592,189],{},[14,594,197],{},[14,596,597],{},"Profit",[14,599,193],{},[14,601,578],{}," — rather than a stack of separate charts.",[10,604,605,607,608,175,610,613,614,616,617,619,620,623],{},[14,606,197],{}," is the equity curve proper. It draws two named series, ",[14,609,197],{},[14,611,612],{},"Equity",", with a legend, so the floating gap is visible rather than inferred; deposits and withdrawals are marked on the line, so a jump reads as funding rather than trading. ",[14,615,189],{}," replots the same account as compounded time-weighted return, with cash flows removed. ",[14,618,578],{}," plots the daily distance below the high-water mark as bars, which is where the ",[57,621,622],{},"length"," of a decline is readable.",[10,625,626,627,629,630,291,632,634,635,638,639,175,641,643,644,646],{},"The numeric anchors are in the ",[14,628,167],{}," panel: ",[14,631,197],{},[14,633,612],{}," — printed as a percentage of balance alongside the amount, so a large floating loss is obvious at a glance — and ",[14,636,637],{},"Highest $",", the peak the account has ever reached. ",[14,640,578],{},[14,642,582],{}," sit on the two rows below ",[14,645,178],{}," in the same panel.",[19,648,209],{"id":208},[211,650,651,660,666,675],{},[214,652,653,656,657,155],{},[14,654,655],{},"\"A smooth equity curve means low risk.\""," It often means the opposite. Smoothness on the balance line is the signature of never realising a loss, and the risk is sitting in the equity line and in ",[66,658,659],{"href":133},"maximum drawdown",[214,661,662,665],{},[14,663,664],{},"\"The equity curve is the balance chart.\""," Balance is closed trades only. Equity includes open ones, and the difference is exactly the amount not yet accounted for.",[214,667,668,671,672,674],{},[14,669,670],{},"\"The curve rose, so the trading worked.\""," Not until deposits are removed. That is why Gain on our pages is time-weighted and ",[66,673,69],{"href":68}," is shown separately.",[214,676,677,680],{},[14,678,679],{},"\"A new high means the account recovered.\""," It means balance recovered. If it was reached by increasing position size after a loss, the account did not recover — it doubled down and got away with it.",[10,682,683,684,155],{},"For how a curve's shape gives away a manufactured result, see ",[66,685,687],{"href":686},"\u002Fguides\u002Fspotting-fake-ea-results","spotting fake EA results",{"title":36,"searchDepth":250,"depth":250,"links":689},[690,691,692,693,694],{"id":21,"depth":250,"text":22},{"id":82,"depth":250,"text":83},{"id":102,"depth":250,"text":103},{"id":158,"depth":250,"text":159},{"id":208,"depth":250,"text":209},"An equity curve plots account value over time. The gap between the balance line and the equity line is where hidden losses live. What public accounts show.",{},[698,266,699,700],"what-is-time-weighted-return","what-is-maximum-drawdown","what-is-a-profit-factor",{"title":463,"description":695},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve","Equity Curve","oMmcx1zz2Z_azfQbvDq8VzDwHBifFJwBHIMfz8JKzFc",{"id":706,"title":707,"body":708,"category":257,"date":258,"description":893,"draft":452,"extension":261,"meta":894,"navigation":260,"path":123,"related":895,"seo":898,"stem":899,"term":578,"updated":258,"__hash__":900},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown.md","What Is Drawdown? Definition, Formula and Real Numbers",{"type":7,"value":709,"toc":886},[710,713,715,718,724,727,730,762,764,767,773,778,781,793,795,800,810,813,815,833,848,850,879],[10,711,712],{},"Drawdown is the decline in an account's value from a previous peak down to a subsequent low, expressed as a percentage of that peak. It measures how far the account fell from its own best point, not how much it lost on any single trade. Because it accumulates, a 20% drawdown can be built out of forty small losses just as easily as out of one disaster.",[19,714,22],{"id":21},[10,716,717],{},"Every account carries a running high-water mark: the highest value it has ever reached. Drawdown is the distance below that mark at any given moment.",[27,719,722],{"className":720,"code":721,"language":32},[30],"Drawdown % = (Peak value − Current value) \u002F Peak value × 100\n",[34,723,721],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,725,726],{},"The mark only moves up. When a new high is printed, the high-water mark resets to it and drawdown returns to zero. Until then, every day below the peak is a day in drawdown, whether the account is falling or grinding sideways.",[10,728,729],{},"Three distinctions decide what the number actually means:",[211,731,732,742,748],{},[214,733,734,737,738,741],{},[14,735,736],{},"Relative vs absolute."," Relative drawdown is the percentage above. Absolute drawdown, as MetaTrader reports it, is the fall below the ",[57,739,740],{},"initial deposit"," in currency — a completely different figure that can read 0% on an account currently 40% below its peak.",[214,743,744,747],{},[14,745,746],{},"Equity vs balance."," Equity drawdown counts floating losses on open positions. Balance drawdown counts only closed trades, so a loss that is never realised never appears in it.",[214,749,750,753,754,756,757,761],{},[14,751,752],{},"Current vs maximum."," Current drawdown is where the account sits today. The historical worst is ",[66,755,659],{"href":133},", and it is the figure most ",[66,758,760],{"href":759},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-track-record","track records"," quote.",[19,763,83],{"id":82},[10,765,766],{},"Drawdown is the constraint that decides whether a strategy is investable, because losses and gains do not compound symmetrically. A 20% fall needs a 25% gain to get back to even. A 50% fall needs 100%.",[10,768,769],{},[50,770],{"alt":771,"src":772},"A 10% loss needs an 11.1% gain to undo it, 25% needs 33.3%, 50% needs 100%, 70% needs 233%","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Frecovery-asymmetry.svg",[10,774,775],{},[57,776,777],{},"Past 50%, the recovery is a bigger job than the loss that caused it.",[10,779,780],{},"It is also the number that removes people from the market. Almost nobody quits during a fast, violent fall — the emotion there is hope. They quit in month nine of a flat recovery. Depth is only half of it; duration is the other half, and it is invisible on a returns chart.",[10,782,783,784,175,788,792],{},"And drawdown is the direct output of ",[66,785,787],{"href":786},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","position sizing",[66,789,791],{"href":790},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","stop-loss"," discipline, far more than of entry quality. Two traders with identical signals and different lot sizes produce identical win rates and completely different survivability.",[19,794,103],{"id":102},[10,796,797,798,155],{},"The figures below describe accounts published on ShowMyTrades. They are not a survey of traders in general. Across the published accounts that have trading history (August 2026), drawn from 15,436,464 synchronised trades, the median deepest drawdown ever reached is ",[14,799,366],{},[10,801,802,803,359,805,110,807,809],{},"Set that against what the same accounts earned. The median ",[66,804,358],{"href":263},[14,806,362],{},[14,808,113],{}," of them are positive over time. The middle account here therefore gave up roughly three times its eventual return in peak-to-trough decline along the way: the risk absorbed is larger than the result, and larger by a multiple rather than a margin.",[10,811,812],{},"That ratio, not the raw depth, is what makes a drawdown figure readable. A published claim of large gains beside a two- or three-percent drawdown is not impossible, but it sits at the outer edge of this distribution, and the rest of the account page is where an edge case has to be justified.",[19,814,159],{"id":158},[10,816,817,818,820,821,823,824,826,827,832],{},"On every published account page, the ",[14,819,167],{}," panel carries two figures on consecutive rows, immediately below ",[14,822,178],{},": ",[14,825,578],{},", measured on equity so floating losses on open positions are included, and ",[14,828,829],{},[66,830,582],{"href":831},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown-on-balance",", measured on closed results only. Both are historical maxima rather than today's reading, and both come from the broker feed rather than from the account owner.",[10,834,835,836,838,839,842,843,847],{},"The charts module has a ",[14,837,578],{}," view that plots daily drawdown as bars over the life of the account. That is where the ",[57,840,841],{},"duration"," of a decline becomes readable instead of inferred, which no single headline percentage can convey. The ",[66,844,846],{"href":845},"\u002Ftools\u002Fdrawdown-calculator","drawdown calculator"," runs the recovery arithmetic on your own balance.",[19,849,209],{"id":208},[211,851,852,858,864,873],{},[214,853,854,857],{},[14,855,856],{},"\"Drawdown is my biggest losing trade.\""," It is not. It is a cumulative peak-to-trough path that can contain hundreds of trades, including winners.",[214,859,860,863],{},[14,861,862],{},"\"My drawdown went back to zero after I recovered.\""," Current drawdown did. Maximum drawdown never falls, by design — it stops a good quarter from erasing a bad one.",[214,865,866,869,870,155],{},[14,867,868],{},"\"Low drawdown means low risk.\""," On a young account it usually means untested. The median published account here has 171 closed trades; below a few hundred, ",[66,871,872],{"href":153},"a small drawdown is a sample size, not a risk profile",[214,874,875,878],{},[14,876,877],{},"\"Balance drawdown is the real one.\""," It is the flattering one. Grid and averaging-down systems keep balance drawdown small precisely by refusing to close losers.",[10,880,881,882,155],{},"For how drawdown reads alongside every other number on an account page, see ",[66,883,885],{"href":884},"\u002Fguides\u002Freading-a-trading-account-dashboard","how to read a trading account dashboard",{"title":36,"searchDepth":250,"depth":250,"links":887},[888,889,890,891,892],{"id":21,"depth":250,"text":22},{"id":82,"depth":250,"text":83},{"id":102,"depth":250,"text":103},{"id":158,"depth":250,"text":159},{"id":208,"depth":250,"text":209},"Drawdown is the peak-to-trough fall in an account's value, in percent. Here is the formula, why it is cumulative, and what thousands of real trading accounts show.",{},[699,896,897,700],"what-is-position-sizing","what-is-a-stop-loss",{"title":707,"description":893},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","DMQq_wxULyvtTewFH3EendlyxckASOfp4LLweDXbTKY",{"id":902,"title":903,"body":904,"category":257,"date":258,"description":1137,"draft":260,"extension":261,"meta":1138,"navigation":260,"path":1139,"related":1140,"seo":1142,"stem":1143,"term":1019,"updated":258,"__hash__":1144},"glossary\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy.md","What Is Expectancy? Formula, Example, Real Data",{"type":7,"value":905,"toc":1130},[906,909,911,917,924,927,933,936,938,946,954,962,964,978,996,1013,1015,1029,1072,1092,1094,1123],[10,907,908],{},"Expectancy is the average result of a single trade, expressed in currency or in pips: what the account earns, on average, every time it opens a position. It is built from four numbers — win rate, average win, loss rate, average loss — and it answers \"does this system make money per trade\" in units you can multiply by a trade count. Positive expectancy repeated often enough is a business; negative expectancy is a countdown.",[19,910,22],{"id":21},[27,912,915],{"className":913,"code":914,"language":32},[30],"Expectancy = (Win Rate × Avg Win) − (Loss Rate × Avg Loss)\n\nLoss Rate = 1 − Win Rate\n",[34,916,914],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,918,919,920,923],{},"A system that wins 40% of the time, makes $300 on a winner and loses $100 on a loser: (0.40 × $300) − (0.60 × $100) = $120 − $60 = ",[14,921,922],{},"+$60 per trade",". Four hundred trades a year is $24,000 of expected result, before position size changes and before anything goes wrong.",[10,925,926],{},"The same formula written in R multiples, where R is one average loss, strips out the account currency and makes systems comparable:",[27,928,931],{"className":929,"code":930,"language":32},[30],"Expectancy (R) = (Win Rate × Payoff) − (1 − Win Rate)\n\nPayoff = Avg Win \u002F Avg Loss\n",[34,932,930],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,934,935],{},"Two things decide whether the output means anything. First, costs must already sit inside the inputs: spread, commission and swap come out of every trade, shrinking each winner and enlarging each loser. Second, the averages need enough trades that one outsized result cannot set them.",[19,937,83],{"id":82},[10,939,940,941,945],{},"Expectancy is the bridge between a statistic and a plan. ",[66,942,944],{"href":943},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","Profit factor"," tells you the ratio of money won to money lost; expectancy tells you what one more trade is worth, which is the number you multiply by frequency to get an expected month.",[10,947,948,949,953],{},"It also exposes the trade-off that a win rate hides. A win rate is only half of an edge — the other half is the ",[66,950,952],{"href":951},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio","risk-reward ratio",", and expectancy is where the two meet. Move either one and the result moves; keep both and no amount of narrative changes it.",[10,955,956,957,961],{},"And it sets the cost floor. If a strategy expects +$8 a trade and the round-turn ",[66,958,960],{"href":959},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","spread"," and commission cost $7, what is left is not a strategy.",[19,963,103],{"id":102},[10,965,966,967,970,971,974,975,155],{},"The figures below describe accounts published on ShowMyTrades, not traders in general. Take the middle of the published accounts that have trading history (August 2026): a ",[14,968,969],{},"median win rate of 68.8%",", a ",[14,972,973],{},"median profit factor of 1.28"," and a ",[14,976,977],{},"median of 171 closed trades",[10,979,980,981,984,985,988,989,995],{},"Those numbers pin the expectancy of that middle account. Inverting the profit factor formula gives an average winner worth about ",[14,982,983],{},"0.58×"," its average loser, and the R form turns the rest into arithmetic: (0.688 × 0.58) − 0.312 = ",[14,986,987],{},"+0.087R",". Nine hundredths of one average losing trade, per trade taken. Over 171 trades the entire record adds up to roughly fifteen average losses' worth of profit — which is why the ",[14,990,991,992,994],{},"median ",[66,993,358],{"href":263}," is only +3.2%"," despite nearly seven trades in ten closing green.",[10,997,998,999,175,1002,110,1005,1008,1009,1012],{},"Costs are not a rounding error at that thickness. Published accounts have paid ",[14,1000,1001],{},"$4,782,670 in commissions",[14,1003,1004],{},"$862,547 in swap",[14,1006,1007],{},"86.3%"," of the accounts that carry swap at all pay net negative swap. At a ",[14,1010,1011],{},"median trade length of 2.4 hours",", an edge of 0.087R survives only if the cost of a round turn stays small against the average loss.",[19,1014,159],{"id":158},[10,1016,1017,1020,1021,1024,1025,1028],{},[14,1018,1019],{},"Expectancy"," is a row in the ",[14,1022,1023],{},"Advanced Statistics"," module on every published account page, inside the ",[57,1026,1027],{},"Performance Metrics"," group. It prints both units on one line — pips first, then account currency — because a pip figure travels between symbols and a currency figure travels between position sizes, and neither alone is complete.",[10,1030,1031,1032,1035,1036,291,1039,291,1042,175,1045,1048,1049,1055,1056,175,1059,1062,1063,291,1066,175,1069,155],{},"Its four inputs are in the ",[57,1033,1034],{},"Trades"," group of the same module: ",[14,1037,1038],{},"Win Rate",[14,1040,1041],{},"Avg. Win",[14,1043,1044],{},"Avg. Loss",[14,1046,1047],{},"Total Trades",", next to ",[14,1050,1051],{},[66,1052,1054],{"href":1053},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-average-trade-length","Avg. Trade Length",", which says whether a thin per-trade edge is being earned in hours or in weeks. The costs already deducted appear as ",[14,1057,1058],{},"Total Commissions",[14,1060,1061],{},"Total Swap Paid",", with the per-trade detail in the trades table under ",[14,1064,1065],{},"Profit (Gross)",[14,1067,1068],{},"Swap",[14,1070,1071],{},"Commission",[10,1073,1074,1075,1081,1082,291,1085,175,1088,1091],{},"To test whether an expectancy is one edge or an average of several, the ",[14,1076,1077],{},[66,1078,1080],{"href":1079},"\u002Fguides\u002Fcustom-analysis-and-filter-presets","Custom Analysis"," slideover recomputes the whole block on a filtered subset — by symbol, magic number, direction, date range, weekday or hour — and Advanced Statistics adds ",[57,1083,1084],{},"Weekday",[57,1086,1087],{},"Hourly",[57,1089,1090],{},"Duration"," views that split the same result without any filtering.",[19,1093,209],{"id":208},[211,1095,1096,1105,1111,1117],{},[214,1097,1098,1101,1102,1104],{},[14,1099,1100],{},"\"Positive expectancy means I will make money.\""," It means the average trade is profitable. Size the positions wrong and a positive-expectancy system still ends at zero: survival is a ",[66,1103,787],{"href":786}," question, not an expectancy one.",[214,1106,1107,1110],{},[14,1108,1109],{},"\"Expectancy is just my average trade.\""," Only if the average is taken net. Computed on gross profit it ignores commission and swap, which is exactly where thin edges disappear.",[214,1112,1113,1116],{},[14,1114,1115],{},"\"A high win rate implies positive expectancy.\""," It implies nothing on its own. At a 0.58 payoff, a 60% win rate is a losing system.",[214,1118,1119,1122],{},[14,1120,1121],{},"\"The number is stable.\""," On a few hundred trades it is not. One outsized winner can lift a whole record's expectancy, and removing it is a fair test.",[10,1124,1125,1126,155],{},"For the metrics worth tracking over time and the order to read them in, see ",[66,1127,1129],{"href":1128},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftracking-trading-performance","the guide to tracking trading performance",{"title":36,"searchDepth":250,"depth":250,"links":1131},[1132,1133,1134,1135,1136],{"id":21,"depth":250,"text":22},{"id":82,"depth":250,"text":83},{"id":102,"depth":250,"text":103},{"id":158,"depth":250,"text":159},{"id":208,"depth":250,"text":209},"Expectancy is the average profit or loss of one trade: (win rate × avg win) − (loss rate × avg loss). The formula, a worked example, and public accounts.",{},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy",[700,1141,896,266],"what-is-risk-reward-ratio",{"title":903,"description":1137},"5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy","U6yMG7Etb-uidsGFxazRu_6VJh-bM41wGZNqkAU1r7Q",1787415688273]