[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1176},["ShallowReactive",2],{"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-pip":3,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-pip-related":297,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-pip-langs":1173},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":279,"date":280,"description":281,"draft":282,"extension":283,"meta":284,"navigation":285,"path":286,"related":287,"seo":292,"stem":293,"term":294,"updated":295,"__hash__":296},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-pip.md","外汇中的点（Pip）是什么？点、point 与微点的区别",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":271},"minimark",[9,13,17,28,39,42,45,54,62,70,73,84,101,112,116,232,235,263],[10,11,12],"p",{},"点（pip）是货币对价格变动的标准单位：多数货币对是 0.0001，日元货币对是 0.01。点衡量的是距离，不是钱。一个点值多少钱，要看合约规模、手数和账户的计价货币。所以两个账户可能都显示 +3,000 点，实际金额却差了上千倍。",[14,15,16],"h2",{"id":16},"工作原理",[18,19,24],"pre",{"className":20,"code":22,"language":23},[21],"language-text","点的大小 = 0.0001            大多数货币对\n         = 0.01              日元货币对\n微点     = 0.1 点            第 5 位（或第 3 位）小数\n\n点值 = 点的大小 x 合约规模 x 手数     -> 以报价货币计\n       再按当前汇率换算为账户货币\n\nEUR\u002FUSD，USD 账户，1.00 手：  0.0001 x 100,000 x 1.00 = 每点 $10.00\nEUR\u002FUSD，USD 账户，0.01 手：  0.0001 x 100,000 x 0.01 = 每点 $0.10\n","text",[25,26,22],"code",{"__ignoreMap":27},"",[10,29,30,34,35,38],{},[31,32,33],"strong",{},"点、point 与微点","。多数经纪商的报价会精确到点的小数位，所以 EUR\u002FUSD 显示五位小数（1.08432），最后一位就是微点（pipette），即十分之一个点。MetaTrader 用 ",[31,36,37],{},"point"," 计数，point 是报价能变动的最小单位。五位小数报价下，10 point 等于 1 点。EA（智能交易系统）里止损设成 200 point，实际是 20 点；同样的参数放到四位小数报价的服务器上，止损就成了 200 点。这一个换算看错，在零售交易里是代价不小的配置错误。",[10,40,41],{},"出了外汇市场，“点”这个说法就不太靠得住了。黄金、指数和加密货币 CFD 的合约规模和最小变动价位都由经纪商自定，平台上显示什么，大家就随口叫它“点”。这些品种唯一可靠的依据，是该服务器上该品种的合约规格。",[14,43,44],{"id":44},"为什么重要",[10,46,47,48,53],{},"止损距离要换算成风险金额，靠的就是点值，所以它是",[49,50,52],"a",{"href":51},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理","的核心输入：风险金额 = 止损点数 × 点值 × 手数。这个换算做对了，手数就是一道算术题，不用再凭习惯。",[10,55,56,57,61],{},"但拿点数比较不同账户，完全行不通。同样的点数，手数不同、报价货币不同、品种不同，代表的金额都不一样；放在",[49,58,60],{"href":59},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-cent-account","美分账户","上，只相当于表面数字的百分之一。点数也看不出为了赚这些点投入了多少资本，而两个结果能不能相比，恰恰只取决于这一点。",[10,63,64,65,69],{},"百分比没有这个问题。",[49,66,68],{"href":67},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","时间加权收益率","天生就能在不同规模的账户之间比较，点数永远做不到。",[14,71,72],{"id":72},"数据显示了什么",[10,74,75,76,79,80,83],{},"截至 2026 年 8 月，ShowMyTrades 上有交易历史的公开账户共交易了 ",[31,77,78],{},"1,724,575 手","，同步了 ",[31,81,82],{},"15,436,464 笔交易","。这些账户的仓位规模相差好几个数量级，所以不能把两个账户的点数摆在一起排高低。",[10,85,86,87,90,91,90,94,90,97,100],{},"经得起比较的是标准化之后的数字：",[31,88,89],{},"TWR 中位数 +3.2%","、",[31,92,93],{},"63.0% 的账户长期为正",[31,95,96],{},"最深回撤中位数 9.7%",[31,98,99],{},"已平仓交易中位数 171 笔","。账户里是 $500 还是 $500,000，这些数字的含义都一样。",[10,102,103,104,107,108,111],{},"成本也是同样的道理，只是方向反过来。这些账户在 1,724,575 手上共付了 ",[31,105,106],{},"$4,782,670 佣金","，约合",[31,109,110],{},"每手 $2.77","。这个数字能比，是因为它按交易量做了除法；原始总额就没法比。",[14,113,115],{"id":114},"在-showmytrades-上的位置","在 ShowMyTrades 上的位置",[117,118,119,180,190,211,225],"ul",{},[120,121,122,125,126,129,130,90,133,136,137,140,141,90,144,150,151,157,158,90,164,90,167,90,170,90,173,136,176,179],"li",{},[31,123,124],{},"高级统计","（",[31,127,128],{},"表格","视图；同一面板还能切换到",[31,131,132],{},"星期",[31,134,135],{},"小时","和",[31,138,139],{},"持续时间","）里有",[31,142,143],{},"总点数",[31,145,146,147,149],{},"最佳交易（点）",[31,148,136],{},"最差交易（点）","，还有",[49,152,154],{"href":153},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy",[31,155,156],{},"期望值","，同时以点数和账户货币显示。旁边是",[49,159,161],{"href":160},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-lot-in-forex",[31,162,163],{},"总手数",[31,165,166],{},"总交易数",[31,168,169],{},"胜率",[31,171,172],{},"平均持仓时间",[31,174,175],{},"佣金合计",[31,177,178],{},"已付库存费合计","。点数一定要和手数一起看，单看没有意义。",[120,181,182,185,186,189],{},[31,183,184],{},"分类统计","的",[31,187,188],{},"按品种","标签页按品种列出做多、做空和合计点数，能看出价格变动究竟来自哪些货币对。",[120,191,192,195,196,199,200,203,204,136,207,210],{},[31,193,194],{},"交易历史与余额变化","下的",[31,197,198],{},"已平仓交易","表格，每个订单都有一列",[31,201,202],{},"点数","，由",[31,205,206],{},"开仓价",[31,208,209],{},"平仓价","按该品种的小数位规则算出。",[120,212,213,216,217,220,221,224],{},[31,214,215],{},"账户统计","面板第一行是",[31,218,219],{},"增长","（即时间加权收益率），紧接着下一行是",[31,222,223],{},"绝对增长","。和别人比较时，该引用的是这两个数字。",[120,226,227,231],{},[49,228,230],{"href":229},"\u002Ftools\u002Fpip-calculator","点值计算器","能按具体的货币对、手数和账户货币，把一个点换算成金额。",[14,233,234],{"id":234},"常见误解",[236,237,238,245,251,257],"ol",{},[120,239,240,241,244],{},"“",[31,242,243],{},"一个点就是 $10。","”只有在 USD 账户上交易 1 标准手、以 USD 报价的货币对时才成立。三个条件变了任何一个，数字都会变。",[120,246,240,247,250],{},[31,248,249],{},"point 和点是一回事。","”在五位和三位小数报价下，10 point 才等于 1 点。止损和止盈参数通常以 point 为单位。",[120,252,240,253,256],{},[31,254,255],{},"点数越多，交易者越厉害。","” 0.01 手赚一千点是 $100，5.00 手赚一百点是 $5,000。",[120,258,240,259,262],{},[31,260,261],{},"点数衡量风险。","”点数衡量的是距离。风险是把这段距离换算成金额，再除以净值。",[10,264,265,266,270],{},"想把点数、手数和保证金换算成您自己账户的数字，请看",[49,267,269],{"href":268},"\u002Fguides\u002Fforex-calculators-guide","外汇计算器指南","。",{"title":27,"searchDepth":272,"depth":272,"links":273},2,[274,275,276,277,278],{"id":16,"depth":272,"text":16},{"id":44,"depth":272,"text":44},{"id":72,"depth":272,"text":72},{"id":114,"depth":272,"text":115},{"id":234,"depth":272,"text":234},"指标","2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","点是外汇价格变动的标准单位，通常是 0.0001。本文讲清点值与手数、报价货币的关系，以及为什么只看点数合计会被误导。",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-pip",[288,289,290,291],"what-is-position-sizing","what-is-a-spread","what-is-expectancy","what-is-time-weighted-return",{"title":5,"description":281},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-pip","点 (Pip)","2026-08-29T00:00:00.000Z","1_YeQ3O2ZxSOQ1N8tH-laXoVIwxJNp-cqTiWCkGcdYo",[298,510,745,955],{"id":299,"title":300,"body":301,"category":497,"date":280,"description":498,"draft":282,"extension":283,"meta":499,"navigation":285,"path":500,"related":501,"seo":506,"stem":507,"term":508,"updated":280,"__hash__":509},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread.md","外汇中的点差（Spread）是什么？定义与真实成本",{"type":7,"value":302,"toc":490},[303,306,308,311,317,325,336,352,354,362,365,367,374,381,384,390,397,399,449,451,485],[10,304,305],{},"点差是卖出价（bid，您卖出时的价格）和买入价（ask，您买入时的价格）之间的差额。这是经纪商为您成交订单收取的费用，不管这笔交易是赚是亏，每一笔都要付。在大多数零售账户上，点差是最大的单项交易成本，也是唯一一项从不在对账单上单独列出的成本。",[14,307,16],{"id":16},[10,309,310],{},"假设 EUR\u002FUSD 报价 1.08432 \u002F 1.08442，点差就是 1.0 点。买入按买入价（ask），卖出按卖出价（bid），所以仓位一开出来，就带着一笔与点差相等的浮亏。价格得先走完这段距离，交易才能回到不赚不亏。",[18,312,315],{"className":313,"code":314,"language":23},[21],"点差（点）   = (买入价 − 卖出价) \u002F 点的大小\n每笔交易成本 = 点差（点） × 点值 × 手数\n",[25,316,314],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,318,319,320,324],{},"EUR\u002FUSD 一个标准手的",[49,321,323],{"href":322},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-pip","点值","是 $10，所以 1.0 点的点差，每手成本就是 $10，一开一平只收一次。",[10,326,327,328,331,332,335],{},"经纪商的定价方式有两种。",[31,329,330],{},"纯点差","账户把报价拉宽，此外不收任何费用，成本就藏在您的成交价里。",[31,333,334],{},"原始点差加佣金","账户的报价贴近银行间价格，差额单独收取。两种方式的总成本可能完全一样，但只有第二种让成本看得见。",[10,337,338,339,342,343,346,347,351],{},"点差分",[31,340,341],{},"固定点差","（不变，通常较宽，由做市商报价）和",[31,344,345],{},"浮动点差","（随真实流动性变化）。伦敦和纽约时段重叠时，主要货币对的浮动点差接近于零；而在经济数据公布时、每日展期（rollover）前后流动性稀薄的那一小时，以及周日开盘时，点差会急剧扩大。偏偏这些时候，也是您的",[49,348,350],{"href":349},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","止损","最容易被打到的时候。",[14,353,44],{"id":44},[10,355,356,357,361],{},"点差随交易频率增长，跟交易水平无关。每笔目标 5 点的系统，1 点的点差就吃掉了",[49,358,360],{"href":359},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-cost-percentage","毛优势的 20%","；目标 200 点的系统，只被吃掉 0.5%。同一套逻辑的策略，在一家经纪商活得下来，在另一家却活不下去，往往就取决于这一个比例。",[10,363,364],{},"而且它在看不见的地方不断累积。ShowMyTrades 上已发布账户的已平仓交易中位数是 171 笔。171 个标准手，每手多 1 点点差，就是 $1,710。这笔钱不会出现在任何地方，只会让净值曲线稍微差一点。",[14,366,72],{"id":72},[10,368,369,370,373],{},"截至 2026 年 8 月，ShowMyTrades 上有交易历史的公开账户共支付了 ",[31,371,372],{},"$4,782,670 的佣金","。这只是执行成本中看得见的那一半；点差没法用同样的方式汇总，因为它包含在成交价里，而不是单独收取。",[10,375,376],{},[377,378],"img",{"alt":379,"src":380},"经纪商的三项成本：点差在每次开仓和平仓时收取，在盈亏列中看不见；佣金逐笔列出；库存费按持仓时间收取：ShowMyTrades 公开账户共支付 $4,782,670 佣金和 $862,547 库存费","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fwhere-costs-hide.svg",[10,382,383],{},"三项成本里，只有一项会带着数字出现。",[10,385,386,387,389],{},"看不见的这一半有多大，不难估算。这些账户共交易了 ",[31,388,78],{},"。在每点 $10 的品种上，这么大的交易量，平均点差哪怕只差 0.2 点，也大约是 340 万美元，超过平台上有记录以来全部佣金的三分之二。",[10,391,392,393,396],{},"而且各家的交易条件确实不一样：这些账户连接了 ",[31,394,395],{},"703 个不同的经纪商服务器","，还有 429 位用户特意在多家经纪商开户，就是为了相互比较。",[14,398,115],{"id":114},[117,400,401,418,428,443],{},[120,402,403,405,406,90,408,136,410,412,413,417],{},[31,404,124],{},"显示",[31,407,175],{},[31,409,163],{},[31,411,143],{},"。用第一项除以第二项，就得到",[49,414,416],{"href":415},"\u002Fguides\u002Fbroker-cost-audit","该账户每手的真实佣金","，经纪商很少用可比较的形式公布这个数字。",[120,419,420,421,423,424,270],{},"最有用的检查，是把",[31,422,143],{},"和净利润放在一起看。账户按点数是赚的，按金额却持平甚至亏损，说明执行成本正在吃掉优势。",[49,425,427],{"href":426},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftrading-cost-percentage","这个差距就是点差和佣金的账单",[120,429,430,195,432,199,434,437,438,136,440,442],{},[31,431,194],{},[31,433,198],{},[31,435,436],{},"佣金","，旁边是",[31,439,206],{},[31,441,209],{},"，每一笔成交实际花了多少钱，一看便知。",[120,444,445,448],{},[31,446,447],{},"账户头部","显示经纪商标识（提示框里有交易服务器名称），旁边是账户货币和杠杆。正因为有这些信息，运行同一策略的两个账户才谈得上比较。",[14,450,234],{"id":234},[236,452,453,459,465,471],{},[120,454,455,458],{},[31,456,457],{},"“零点差”不等于免费","。零点差或原始点差账户只是把成本挪到了佣金上。要比总成本，别看宣传口号。",[120,460,461,464],{},[31,462,463],{},"广告上的点差是最理想的情况","。经纪商报的是流动性充足时段测得的典型点差或最低点差。利率决议期间您拿到的成交价，完全是另一回事。",[120,466,467,470],{},[31,468,469],{},"点差不在对账单上，于是人们以为自己没付","。其实它在开仓时就扣掉了，那时这笔交易还没成为表格里的一行。",[120,472,473,270,476,136,480,484],{},[31,474,475],{},"光看点差，排不出经纪商的高下",[49,477,479],{"href":478},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-swap-in-forex","库存费",[49,481,483],{"href":482},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-slippage","滑点","也要放进同一个比较里；点差窄但执行差，反而更贵。",[10,486,487,488,270],{},"想用您自己的品种和手数算出真实数字，请参阅",[49,489,269],{"href":268},{"title":27,"searchDepth":272,"depth":272,"links":491},[492,493,494,495,496],{"id":16,"depth":272,"text":16},{"id":44,"depth":272,"text":44},{"id":72,"depth":272,"text":72},{"id":114,"depth":272,"text":115},{"id":234,"depth":272,"text":234},"成本","点差是买入价与卖出价之间的差距，也就是您开仓要付的成本。本文介绍点差的原理、每手成本，以及各家经纪商为何不同。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread",[502,503,504,505],"what-is-a-swap-in-forex","what-is-slippage","what-is-a-regulated-broker","what-is-a-profit-factor",{"title":300,"description":498},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","点差 (Spread)","pmILRTUEL-hRknwSO9zZZssKW8sK6YY1FwEoFE5VfCc",{"id":511,"title":512,"body":513,"category":279,"date":280,"description":734,"draft":282,"extension":283,"meta":735,"navigation":285,"path":736,"related":737,"seo":740,"stem":741,"term":742,"updated":743,"__hash__":744},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy.md","什么是期望值？公式、示例与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":514,"toc":727},[515,518,520,526,533,536,542,545,547,555,563,571,573,586,602,620,622,635,672,689,691,720],[10,516,517],{},"期望值就是一笔交易的平均结果，可以用货币或点数表示：账户每开一笔仓位，平均能赚多少。它由胜率、平均盈利、亏损率、平均亏损四个数字算出，回答的是“这套系统每做一笔到底赚不赚钱”，而且结果可以直接乘以交易笔数。正期望值重复得足够多，就是一门生意；负期望值则是在倒数计时。",[14,519,16],{"id":16},[18,521,524],{"className":522,"code":523,"language":23},[21],"期望值 = (胜率 × 平均盈利) − (亏损率 × 平均亏损)\n\n亏损率 = 1 − 胜率\n",[25,525,523],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,527,528,529,532],{},"假设一个系统胜率 40%，每笔盈利单赚 $300，每笔亏损单亏 $100：(0.40 × $300) − (0.60 × $100) = $120 − $60 = ",[31,530,531],{},"每笔交易 +$60","。一年做四百笔，预期结果就是 $24,000，这还没考虑仓位大小的变化，也没算上任何意外。",[10,534,535],{},"把同一个公式改用 R 倍数来写（R 即一笔平均亏损），账户货币的影响就去掉了，不同系统也能放在一起比较：",[18,537,540],{"className":538,"code":539,"language":23},[21],"期望值 (R) = (胜率 × 盈亏比) − (1 − 胜率)\n\n盈亏比 = 平均盈利 \u002F 平均亏损\n",[25,541,539],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,543,544],{},"算出来的数字有没有意义，取决于两点。第一，输入里必须已经扣除成本：点差、佣金和库存费每笔都要付，盈利单因此变小，亏损单因此变大。第二，平均值背后要有足够多的交易，不能让某一笔特别大的结果单独左右它。",[14,546,44],{"id":44},[10,548,549,550,554],{},"统计数字要变成交易计划，靠的就是期望值。",[49,551,553],{"href":552},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","盈利因子","告诉您赚的钱和亏的钱之比；期望值告诉您再多做一笔交易值多少钱，把它乘以交易频率，就能得出一个月的预期结果。",[10,556,557,558,562],{},"胜率掩盖的取舍，也会在期望值里暴露出来。胜率只是优势的一半，另一半是",[49,559,561],{"href":560},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio","风险回报比","，期望值正是两者的交汇点。动其中任何一个，结果都会跟着变；两个都不动，故事讲得再好，结果也不会变。",[10,564,565,566,570],{},"期望值还划出了成本的底线。如果一个策略每笔的期望是 +$8，而一个来回的",[49,567,569],{"href":568},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","点差","加佣金就要 $7，剩下的那点东西已经算不上策略了。",[14,572,72],{"id":72},[10,574,575,576,579,580,579,583,270],{},"以下数字描述的是 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月）取中间水平：",[31,577,578],{},"胜率中位数 68.8%","，",[31,581,582],{},"盈利因子中位数 1.28",[31,584,585],{},"已平仓交易数中位数 171 笔",[10,587,588,589,592,593,596,597,270],{},"有了这几个数字，这个“中间账户”的期望值就能算出来。把盈利因子公式反推回去，平均盈利约为平均亏损的 ",[31,590,591],{},"0.58 倍","；剩下的用 R 形式一算便知：(0.688 × 0.58) − 0.312 = ",[31,594,595],{},"+0.087R","。也就是说，每做一笔交易，只赚到一笔平均亏损的百分之九。171 笔交易下来，全部利润加起来大约只相当于十五笔平均亏损，所以尽管近七成交易以盈利平仓，",[31,598,599,601],{},[49,600,68],{"href":67},"的中位数也只有 +3.2%",[10,603,604,605,607,608,611,612,615,616,619],{},"优势薄到这个程度，成本就不是可以忽略的零头了。已发布账户累计支付了 ",[31,606,106],{},"和 ",[31,609,610],{},"$862,547 库存费","；在产生过库存费的账户中，",[31,613,614],{},"86.3%"," 的净库存费为负。持仓时间中位数只有 ",[31,617,618],{},"2.4 小时","，在这种节奏下，0.087R 的优势要想保住，一个来回的成本相对平均亏损就必须足够小。",[14,621,115],{"id":114},[10,623,624,625,627,628,630,631,634],{},"每个已发布账户页面的",[31,626,124],{},"模块里都有",[31,629,156],{},"这一行，位于",[31,632,633],{},"表现指标","分组。它在同一行里给出两种单位（先点数，后账户货币）：点数便于在不同品种之间比较，货币金额便于在不同仓位大小之间比较，单看哪一个都不完整。",[10,636,637,638,641,642,90,644,90,647,136,650,652,653,658,659,136,661,663,664,90,667,136,669,671],{},"它的四个输入在同一模块的",[31,639,640],{},"交易","分组里：",[31,643,169],{},[31,645,646],{},"平均盈利",[31,648,649],{},"平均亏损",[31,651,166],{},"，旁边还有",[49,654,656],{"href":655},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-average-trade-length",[31,657,172],{},"，能看出这点薄薄的单笔优势是几小时赚到的，还是几周才赚到的。已经扣除的成本显示在",[31,660,175],{},[31,662,178],{},"两行，每笔交易的明细则在交易表格的",[31,665,666],{},"盈利（毛额）",[31,668,479],{},[31,670,436],{},"列。",[10,673,674,675,681,682,90,684,136,686,688],{},"想检验一个期望值到底是一种优势，还是几种优势平均出来的，可以打开",[49,676,678],{"href":677},"\u002Fguides\u002Fcustom-analysis-and-filter-presets",[31,679,680],{},"自定义分析","侧边面板：按品种、魔术号、方向、日期范围、星期或小时筛选出子集，整个区块就会重新计算。高级统计还提供",[31,683,132],{},[31,685,135],{},[31,687,139],{},"视图，不用筛选就能把同一结果拆开来看。",[14,690,234],{"id":234},[117,692,693,702,708,714],{},[120,694,240,695,698,699,701],{},[31,696,697],{},"正期望值就意味着我会赚钱。","”它只说明平均每笔交易是盈利的。仓位定错了，正期望值的系统照样会亏光：能不能活下来，是",[49,700,52],{"href":51},"的问题，不是期望值的问题。",[120,703,240,704,707],{},[31,705,706],{},"期望值就是我的平均每笔交易。","”前提是平均值按净额计算。按毛利润算就漏掉了佣金和库存费，而薄优势恰恰是在这里消失的。",[120,709,240,710,713],{},[31,711,712],{},"高胜率就意味着正期望值。","”单看胜率说明不了任何问题。盈亏比为 0.58 时，60% 的胜率是个亏钱的系统。",[120,715,240,716,719],{},[31,717,718],{},"这个数字很稳定。","”只有几百笔交易时并不稳定。一笔特别大的盈利单就能把整个记录的期望值抬上去，把它去掉再算一遍，是个公平的检验。",[10,721,722,723,270],{},"哪些指标值得长期追踪、该按什么顺序看，请参阅",[49,724,726],{"href":725},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftracking-trading-performance","交易表现追踪完全指南",{"title":27,"searchDepth":272,"depth":272,"links":728},[729,730,731,732,733],{"id":16,"depth":272,"text":16},{"id":44,"depth":272,"text":44},{"id":72,"depth":272,"text":72},{"id":114,"depth":272,"text":115},{"id":234,"depth":272,"text":234},"期望值是单笔交易的平均盈亏：(胜率 × 平均盈利) − (亏损率 × 平均亏损)。本文给出公式、完整算例和公开账户的真实数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy",[505,738,288,739],"what-is-risk-reward-ratio","what-is-drawdown",{"title":512,"description":734},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy","期望值 (Expectancy)","2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z","4gLLgYBgHrrvWKTKFixk2tUfM9kXODaMx4LcyeirnhQ",{"id":746,"title":747,"body":748,"category":943,"date":280,"description":944,"draft":282,"extension":283,"meta":945,"navigation":285,"path":946,"related":947,"seo":951,"stem":952,"term":953,"updated":280,"__hash__":954},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing.md","什么是仓位管理？公式与手数计算",{"type":7,"value":749,"toc":936},[750,758,760,763,769,772,778,784,787,807,813,816,818,821,828,830,845,848,862,864,871,898,900,931],[10,751,752,753,757],{},"仓位管理（position sizing）决定一笔交易开多大，依据是这笔交易失败时您愿意亏掉账户的多少。它用两个数把风险百分比换算成手数：到止损的距离，以及这个手数下一个点值多少钱。账户的",[49,754,756],{"href":755},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","回撤","特征就由这一个变量决定，而且它是在交易前选定的，不是交易后才发现的。",[14,759,16],{"id":16},[10,761,762],{},"分三步，按顺序来。",[18,764,767],{"className":765,"code":766,"language":23},[21],"1. 风险金额   = 账户余额 × 风险 %\n2. 点值　　   = 合约规模 × 以报价货币计的一个点 × 换算为账户货币的汇率\n3. 仓位大小   = 风险金额 \u002F (止损距离点数 × 每手点值)\n",[25,768,766],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,770,771],{},"举个例子：$10,000 的账户，每笔交易风险 1%，EUR\u002FUSD 止损 50 点，一标准手每点 $10：",[18,773,776],{"className":774,"code":775,"language":23},[21],"风险金额   = 10,000 × 0.01      = $100\n仓位大小   = 100 \u002F (50 × 10)    = 0.20 手\n",[25,777,775],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,779,780,781,783],{},"止损放宽到 100 点，同样 $100 的风险就只能开 0.10 手。风险不变，手数跟着调整。整个思路就在这种反向关系里，也正因为如此，仓位管理和",[49,782,350],{"href":349},"位置不能分开决定。",[10,785,786],{},"实践中最常用的有三种方法：",[117,788,789,795,801],{},[120,790,791,794],{},[31,792,793],{},"固定手数","。不管止损多远、余额多少，永远 0.10 手。简单，但止损和余额一变，单笔风险就跟着漂移。",[120,796,797,800],{},[31,798,799],{},"百分比风险（固定比例）","。也就是上面的公式。风险始终与账户成比例，账户缩水时，按金额计的亏损也随之变小，回本在算术上才有可能。",[120,802,803,806],{},[31,804,805],{},"马丁格尔递增","。亏损后加大手数，想把亏损扳回来。盈利频繁而且每笔都小，净值曲线漂亮得无可挑剔，但结果的分布有一条很厚的左尾，而且会一下子全部兑现。",[10,808,809],{},[377,810],{"alt":811,"src":812},"每次亏损后手数加倍，对比按净值固定比例下单：胜率相同，市场相同，结局相反","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Flot-progression.svg",[10,814,815],{},"一个账户用的是哪一种，光看手数就能看出来。",[14,817,44],{"id":44},[10,819,820],{},"入场决定您能不能赢，仓位管理决定您还能不能留下来做下一笔。两个交易者用同样的信号、同样的止损，胜率一模一样，账户却天差地别，因为一个每笔只冒 0.5% 的风险，另一个冒 8%。",[10,822,823,827],{},[49,824,826],{"href":825},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-leverage","杠杆","真正造成伤害，也是通过仓位管理。高杠杆本身不是风险，只是允许您去冒险。风险来自用这份许可开出的仓位：按它的止损距离，一笔亏损大到账户连亏两次都扛不住。",[14,829,72],{"id":72},[10,831,832,833,836,837,579,841,844],{},"仓位管理会在回撤的尾部留下痕迹。在 ShowMyTrades 上有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月；统计对象是在本站公开的账户，并不代表所有交易者），",[31,834,835],{},"38.2%"," 曾",[49,838,840],{"href":839},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","回撤超过 20%",[31,842,843],{},"17.6%"," 亏掉了峰值的一半以上。",[10,846,847],{},"规模定得合理的固定比例账户，很少会落到最后这一档。按每笔 1% 的风险亏掉 50%，大约要连亏 69 次。落在这条尾部里的账户，一般另有原因：亏损后不断加码，或者定手数时根本没考虑止损。",[10,849,850,851,579,854,857,858,861],{},"再看看仓位大小是谁定的：这些账户自动交易占比的中位数为 ",[31,852,853],{},"99%",[31,855,856],{},"53.9%"," 的账户自动化程度超过 90%，低于 10% 的则有 ",[31,859,860],{},"42.2%","。在一半以上的已发布账户上，仓位大小只是 EA 设置里的一行，设好一次，余额怎么变都不再调整。",[14,863,115],{"id":114},[10,865,866,870],{},[49,867,869],{"href":868},"\u002Ftools\u002Fposition-size-calculator","仓位计算器","用实时价格、以您的账户货币套用上面的公式，风险可以按百分比或固定金额设定，止损可以用价格或点数表示。",[10,872,873,874,877,878,881,882,884,885,888,889,891,892,897],{},"在已发布账户的页面上，仓位管理可以实际核查，不必凭空猜测。",[31,875,876],{},"交易表格","有一列",[31,879,880],{},"交易量","，列出每笔交易的手数，每亏一次就加一级的手数一眼就能看出来。",[31,883,680],{},"提供",[31,886,887],{},"手数","的最小\u002F最大筛选：把下限设在账户正常手数之上，看看剩下的交易是不是都紧跟在亏损之后出现，这就是马丁格尔的特征。",[31,890,124],{},"模块里的",[49,893,895],{"href":894},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftrading-volume-analysis",[31,896,163],{},"给出汇总值；所有已发布账户累计交易了 1,724,575 手。",[14,899,234],{"id":234},[117,901,902,908,919,925],{},[120,903,240,904,907],{},[31,905,906],{},"风险 2%，就是动用账户的 2%。","”不是。2% 是止损被触发时的亏损。仓位占用的保证金是另一个完全不同的数字，由杠杆决定。",[120,909,240,910,913,914,918],{},[31,911,912],{},"我每笔只冒 1% 的风险，所以最坏也就亏 1%。","”只有同时只开一个仓位时才成立。",[49,915,917],{"href":916},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-correlation-risk","五个相关的仓位","各占 1%，其实是一笔换了装扮的 5% 交易，而相关的货币对偏偏在最伤人的时候同涨同跌。",[120,920,240,921,924],{},[31,922,923],{},"不设止损，就没有风险要算。","”没有止损，仓位大小公式就没有分母：风险不是很小，而是根本无法定义，它的真实数值就是追加保证金通知。",[120,926,240,927,930],{},[31,928,929],{},"复利就是不断加仓。","”固定比例的仓位管理是双向调整的。赢了加手数、亏了却不减，这不是复利，而是一个慢慢收紧的棘轮，把账户推向一场您定仓位时从未考虑过的回撤。",[10,932,933,934,270],{},"全套风险与仓位管理工具，以及各自适用的场景，请参阅",[49,935,269],{"href":268},{"title":27,"searchDepth":272,"depth":272,"links":937},[938,939,940,941,942],{"id":16,"depth":272,"text":16},{"id":44,"depth":272,"text":44},{"id":72,"depth":272,"text":72},{"id":114,"depth":272,"text":115},{"id":234,"depth":272,"text":234},"风险","仓位管理就是根据止损距离和点值，把风险百分比换算成手数。本文介绍公式、三种常见方法，以及仓位定错的代价。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing",[739,948,949,950],"what-is-maximum-drawdown","what-is-a-stop-loss","what-is-leverage",{"title":747,"description":944},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理 (Position Sizing)","5hi2OmhGtFDhESyalituW-Nh51a9wIit5SKZxEMEQyk",{"id":956,"title":957,"body":958,"category":279,"date":280,"description":1163,"draft":282,"extension":283,"meta":1164,"navigation":285,"path":1165,"related":1166,"seo":1169,"stem":1170,"term":1171,"updated":743,"__hash__":1172},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return.md","什么是时间加权收益率（TWR）？",{"type":7,"value":959,"toc":1156},[960,966,968,971,977,980,987,993,996,1005,1011,1014,1016,1019,1032,1034,1044,1061,1076,1078,1097,1118,1120,1149],[10,961,962,963,965],{},"时间加权收益率（TWR）只衡量交易决策本身带来的收益，入金和出金都不算在内。做法是在每一笔资金进出的地方把账户历史切开，每一段单独计算，再把各段复利相乘。ShowMyTrades 账户页面上的",[31,964,219],{},"，就是这个数字。",[14,967,16],{"id":16},[10,969,970],{},"钱转进转出，余额就会变，跟交易毫无关系。TWR 的办法是：资金进出一律不进入收益计算。",[18,972,975],{"className":973,"code":974,"language":23},[21],"TWR = [(1 + r₁) × (1 + r₂) × … × (1 + rₙ)] − 1\n\nrᵢ = 第 i 期的盈利 \u002F 第 i 期开始时的余额\n",[25,976,974],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,978,979],{},"每一期都夹在两次资金进出之间。一笔入金结束上一期，下一期从入金后更大的余额开始；入金本身永远不会出现在分子里。在 ShowMyTrades 上，子期间按天划分：每天的收益以当天开始时的余额为基准，扣除当天产生的成本，再把每天的收益复利相乘。",[10,981,982,983,986],{},"举个直白的例子。用 $10,000 开户，赚了 $2,000：第一期收益 20%。再入金 $10,000，余额变成 $22,000，又赚了 $2,000：第二期收益是 9.1%，因为基数变大了。看余额，是投入 $20,000 赚了 +$4,000；看 TWR，则是 (1 + 0.20) × (1 + 0.091) − 1 = ",[31,984,985],{},"+30.9%","。入金本身一分钱也没赚到。",[10,988,989],{},[377,990],{"alt":991,"src":992},"一笔 $10,000 入金让余额线跳上一个台阶，时间加权收益率线却纹丝不动","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fdeposit-vs-twr.svg",[10,994,995],{},"钱到账那天，余额跳了上去，增长却没动。",[10,997,998,999,1004],{},"这就是它和同一面板上另一个百分比",[49,1000,1002],{"href":1001},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-absolute-gain",[31,1003,223],{},"的区别：",[18,1006,1009],{"className":1007,"code":1008,"language":23},[21],"绝对增长 = 已平仓净盈亏 \u002F 入金总额 × 100\n",[25,1010,1008],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,1012,1013],{},"绝对增长回答的是：投进去的钱，账户赚回了多少；TWR 回答的是：这些钱交易得好不好。两者都很诚实，但只有 TWR 能在规模不同、资金进出方式不同的账户之间比较。",[14,1015,44],{"id":44},[10,1017,1018],{},"业绩记录之所以能拿来比较，靠的就是 TWR。没有它，百分比可以靠在回撤中入金来美化：$10,000 的账户亏掉 $5,000，是 −50%；第二天补进 $10,000，同一个还没填上的窟窿，按新余额算就只剩 −33%。",[10,1020,1021,1022,1026,1027,1031],{},"反过来也一样，所以它是公平的数字，而不是讨好人的数字。出金抬不高 TWR，赶在好月份之前恰到好处地入金也抬不高。剩下的，就是交易决策本身的",[49,1023,1025],{"href":1024},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve","净值曲线","，这也是",[49,1028,1030],{"href":1029},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","经验证的业绩记录","的读者唯一能让交易者负责的部分。",[14,1033,72],{"id":72},[10,1035,1036,1037,1040,1041,270],{},"以下数字描述的是 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月），",[31,1038,1039],{},"时间加权收益率中位数为 +3.2%","，按时间加权计算为正的账户占 ",[31,1042,1043],{},"63.0%",[10,1045,1046,1047,1053,1054,836,1056,579,1058,1060],{},"由此能读出两点。第一，按这个标准，多数已发布账户确实在赚钱，并不像网上说的那样一片狼藉。第二，分布的中间值很小：+3.2%，而",[31,1048,1049,1050,1052],{},"最深",[49,1051,756],{"href":755},"的中位数为 9.7%","，也就是说，典型账户一路上回吐的幅度，大约是最终收益的三倍。同一批账户中，",[31,1055,835],{},[49,1057,840],{"href":839},[31,1059,843],{}," 曾回撤超过 50%。",[10,1062,1063,1064,1067,1068,1071,1072,270],{},"这里的中位数账户有 ",[31,1065,1066],{},"171 笔已平仓交易","，样本总共 ",[31,1069,1070],{},"15,436,464 笔已同步交易","。历史很短的账户 TWR 再高，",[49,1073,1075],{"href":1074},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-much-history-a-track-record-needs","说明的也只是几周的表现，而不是一套方法",[14,1077,115],{"id":114},[10,1079,624,1080,1082,1083,1085,1086,1088,1089,1092,1093,1096],{},[31,1081,215],{},"面板中，第一行、也是最醒目的一行就是",[31,1084,219],{},"，它就是 TWR。",[31,1087,223],{},"紧挨在它下面，受资金进出影响的数字和不受影响的数字，始终放在一起。再往下两行的",[31,1090,1091],{},"日均 %"," 和",[31,1094,1095],{},"月均 %","，也都出自同一条时间加权序列。",[10,1098,1099,1100,1102,1103,1106,1107,1110,1111,1117],{},"图表模块是一个可以切换视图的面板，而不是一摞图表，它用两种方式画出 TWR。",[31,1101,219],{},"视图显示账户整个历史上按日复利的 TWR；",[31,1104,1105],{},"逐笔交易增长","把同一条序列按交易序号而不是日期来画，交易频率就一目了然：两个都是 +40% 的账户，按日历看一模一样，可如果一个只做了 90 笔、另一个做了 9,000 笔，按交易序号看就完全不同。",[31,1108,1109],{},"余额","视图显示原始金额，入金出金都在里面，这正是 TWR 要纠正的那幅画面。",[49,1112,1114],{"href":1113},"\u002Fguides\u002Fmonthly-returns-table-explained",[31,1115,1116],{},"月度收益表","则把同一条时间加权序列按月、按年拆开。",[14,1119,234],{"id":234},[117,1121,1122,1128,1137,1143],{},[120,1123,240,1124,1127],{},[31,1125,1126],{},"TWR 就是我赚了多少钱。","”它不是金额。一个账户如果大部分时间都用很小的仓位交易，TWR 可以是 +80%，利润却很少。",[120,1129,240,1130,1133,1134,270],{},[31,1131,1132],{},"我的入金拉低了增长。","”不可能。一笔入金只是结束一个计算期、开始下一个，对收益没有任何正面或负面的贡献。人们通常注意到的，其实是入金没能像余额图那样把百分比",[31,1135,1136],{},"抬高",[120,1138,240,1139,1142],{},[31,1140,1141],{},"TWR 和绝对增长应该一致。","”只有只入金一次、从未出金的账户，两者才会一致。出现差异，说明的是资金进出的情况，不是数据出错。",[120,1144,240,1145,1148],{},[31,1146,1147],{},"它是年度数字。","”它是从账户第一笔交易起的累计值，没有年化。三年 +3.2% 和三个月 +3.2%，是完全不同的结果。",[10,1150,1151,1152,270],{},"想看具体算例，包括入金如何掩盖回撤，请参阅",[49,1153,1155],{"href":1154},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftime-weighted-return-explained","时间加权收益率详解",{"title":27,"searchDepth":272,"depth":272,"links":1157},[1158,1159,1160,1161,1162],{"id":16,"depth":272,"text":16},{"id":44,"depth":272,"text":44},{"id":72,"depth":272,"text":72},{"id":114,"depth":272,"text":115},{"id":234,"depth":272,"text":234},"时间加权收益率把各子期间的收益复利相乘，入金和出金因此不影响结果。本文介绍公式、它与绝对增长率的区别，以及公开账户的数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return",[1167,739,1168,290],"what-is-an-equity-curve","what-is-a-verified-track-record",{"title":957,"description":1163},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","时间加权收益率 (Time-Weighted Return)","F3XPVDAsdwIkxdhz7jxOdVqNAqaclnEAOAx0877XIQI",[1174,1175],{"path":322},{"path":286},1793898058605]