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",[28,378,313],{},"，而且留在站点地图中。",[165,381,167,382,385],{},[41,383,384],{},"设为不公开列出会让我嵌入的小组件失效。","”不会。小组件服务的是已发布的账户，而不公开列出的账户就是已发布的。设为私密，小组件才会失效。",[165,387,167,388,391],{},[41,389,390],{},"再也没人能看到它了。","”原来的关注者仍然可以，收到转发链接的人也可以。",[10,393,394,395,135],{},"关于可见性、链接标识和公开主页如何配合，请参阅",[35,396,398],{"href":397},"\u002Fguides\u002Fpublic-profile-and-custom-slugs","公开主页与自定义链接标识指南",{"title":30,"searchDepth":203,"depth":203,"links":400},[401,402,403,404,405],{"id":16,"depth":203,"text":16},{"id":62,"depth":203,"text":62},{"id":76,"depth":203,"text":76},{"id":114,"depth":203,"text":115},{"id":160,"depth":203,"text":160},"验证","不公开列出是第三种可见性状态：持有链接的人都能打开账户页面，但它不会出现在探索、搜索和您的公开主页上。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-unlisted-account",[411,412,413,414],"what-is-a-trading-widget","what-is-a-verified-track-record","what-is-a-trading-portfolio","what-is-a-prop-firm",{"title":231,"description":407},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-unlisted-account","不公开列出的账户 (Unlisted Account)","aMUxd11AWHJR0x8XswbHBo9C1ZfhZaLddC5NP1gfdlU",{"id":420,"title":421,"body":422,"category":726,"date":211,"description":727,"draft":213,"extension":214,"meta":728,"navigation":216,"path":729,"related":730,"seo":735,"stem":736,"term":737,"updated":738,"__hash__":739},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-correlation-risk.md","什么是相关性风险？分散投资为何失效",{"type":7,"value":423,"toc":719},[424,427,429,437,443,446,513,516,519,560,563,565,573,581,588,590,606,614,628,630,680,682,713],[10,425,426],{},"相关性风险（correlation risk）是指：一些仓位或账户看起来互不相干，背后却受同一个因素驱动，于是一起亏损。这就是为什么看似分散的持仓，到头来只出现一次毫不分散的回撤：风险是按仓位一个个算的，来的时候却是一齐到来。",[14,428,16],{"id":16},[10,430,431,432,436],{},"两个货币对之间的相关系数，属于",[35,433,435],{"href":434},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-forex-pair-correlation","外汇货币对相关性","的话题。放到整个持仓上，要看的是最后实际剩下几个独立的赌注。",[21,438,441],{"className":439,"code":440,"language":26},[24],"独立赌注数 = n ÷ ( 1 + (n − 1) × ρ )\n\nn = 仓位数量\nρ = 仓位之间的平均相关系数\n",[28,442,440],{"__ignoreMap":30},[10,444,445],{},"三个仓位，每个承担账户 1% 的风险：",[447,448,449,465],"table",{},[450,451,452],"thead",{},[453,454,455,459,462],"tr",{},[456,457,458],"th",{},"平均相关系数",[456,460,461],{},"合计风险",[456,463,464],{},"独立赌注数",[466,467,468,480,491,502],"tbody",{},[453,469,470,474,477],{},[471,472,473],"td",{},"ρ = 0",[471,475,476],{},"1.73%",[471,478,479],{},"3.0",[453,481,482,485,488],{},[471,483,484],{},"ρ = 0.7",[471,486,487],{},"2.68%",[471,489,490],{},"1.25",[453,492,493,496,499],{},[471,494,495],{},"ρ = 1",[471,497,498],{},"3.00%",[471,500,501],{},"1.0",[453,503,504,507,510],{},[471,505,506],{},"ρ = −0.5（三个仓位时的下限）",[471,508,509],{},"≈ 0%",[471,511,512],{},"—",[10,514,515],{},"交易者以为自己冒了三次 1% 的风险。ρ = 1 时，其实是一次冒了 3%。平台上没有任何提示会告诉您这个差别。",[10,517,518],{},"相关的风险敞口有五个来源，大多数持仓同时占了好几个：",[162,520,521,527,537,543,554],{},[165,522,523,526],{},[41,524,525],{},"共同的货币腿","。同时做多 EUR\u002FUSD、GBP\u002FUSD 和 AUD\u002FUSD，其实是换了三身行头的同一个做空美元仓位。",[165,528,529,532,533,536],{},[41,530,531],{},"一个策略跑多个品种","。一个 ",[35,534,535],{"href":105},"EA（智能交易系统）","交易十二个货币对，同一个信号条件就生成十二个仓位。",[165,538,539,542],{},[41,540,541],{},"一个策略跑多个账户","。同一个 EA 复制到四个账户上，就是把一个赌注放大了四倍；要看的是承担风险的资金总额，而不是每个账户各有多少。",[165,544,545,548,549,553],{},[41,546,547],{},"依赖同一种市场状态","。持仓里所有",[35,550,552],{"href":551},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-trend-following","趋势跟踪","系统，不管交易什么，遇到震荡行情都会一起吃亏。",[165,555,556,559],{},[41,557,558],{},"同一个交易场所","。同一家经纪商、同一个报价源、同一套执行。报价源一中断，或者来一波重新报价，所有仓位同时受影响。",[10,561,562],{},"而且 ρ 不是常数：市场平静时，各个仓位各走各的，持仓看上去确实分散；一旦出现流动性事件，它们就会向 1 靠拢。",[14,564,62],{"id":62},[10,566,567,568,572],{},"相关性风险会让",[35,569,571],{"href":570},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理","赖以成立的算术失效。“每笔交易 1%”的规则是对最坏情况的承诺，但前提是交易彼此独立。十个相关仓位各押 1%，规则一丝不差地执行，一天照样可能亏掉 10%。",[10,574,575,576,580],{},"对",[35,577,579],{"href":578},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-margin-level","保证金比例","的冲击也是同样道理：相关的仓位会一起陷入浮亏，整个账户的净值一齐下滑，已用保证金却纹丝不动，强平线逼近的速度比逐个分析仓位时预想的快得多。",[10,582,583,584,587],{},"它还会让业绩记录误导人。四个账户各自只有不大的",[35,585,193],{"href":586},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","，可能全都发生在同样的三天里：分开看是四个数据点，实际上只有一个。",[14,589,76],{"id":76},[10,591,592,593,98,596,599,600,98,603,605],{},"在 ShowMyTrades 上（2026 年 8 月），",[41,594,595],{},"699 名用户运行不止一个账户",[41,597,598],{},"429 名用户在不止一家经纪商开有账户","。在有交易历史的公开账户中，自动交易占比的中位数为 ",[41,601,602],{},"99%",[41,604,101],{},"。统计对象是在本站公开的账户，并不代表全体交易者。",[10,607,608,609,613],{},"这些数字说明了规模。超过一半的用户持有多个账户，约三分之一把账户分散在不同的经纪商，通常是为了不依赖单一交易对手。但这分散的是交易对手，不是策略：如果两边跑的是同一个自动化系统，",[35,610,612],{"href":611},"\u002Fguides\u002Fsame-strategy-different-brokers","两家经纪商只是把同一条净值曲线交出两遍","；而自动交易占比几乎是百分之百，这种情况就成了常态。",[10,615,616,617,620,621,623,624,627],{},"结果也印证了这一点。",[35,618,619],{"href":192},"最深回撤的中位数","为 ",[41,622,110],{},"，但 ",[41,625,626],{},"17.6% 的账户超过了 50%","。这么深的跌幅，很少是某一个仓位出了错，而是一组仓位到头来被证明是同一个仓位。",[14,629,115],{"id":114},[162,631,632,647,660,667,674],{},[165,633,634,637,638,641,642,646],{},[41,635,636],{},"分类统计","模块里的",[41,639,640],{},"按魔术号","标签页，按策略而不是按交易品种拆分记录。两个",[35,643,645],{"href":644},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-magic-number","魔术号","如果好时段、坏时段都一样，就是同一个系统贴了两个标签。",[165,648,649,653,654,343,657,659],{},[35,650,651],{"href":141},[41,652,144],{},"可以按",[41,655,656],{},"品种",[41,658,645],{},"筛选。排除一个魔术号后重新计算各项数字，就能看出这份记录有多少是靠它撑着的。已保存的预设列表在公开页面上不显示，筛选功能则照常可用。",[165,661,662,663,666],{},"图表模块的",[41,664,665],{},"增长","视图，打开两个账户页面对照着看。两条曲线如果在相同日期出现相同的高峰和低谷，不管叫什么名字，都是同一个策略。",[165,668,669,673],{},[35,670,671],{"href":286},[41,672,287],{},"把多个账户合并成一个汇总视图：净值曲线、统计和指标全都合在一起。相关性风险针对的是这个总数，而不是每个账户各自的数字。",[165,675,676,679],{},[41,677,678],{},"交易表格","里的魔术号和注释两列，能看出哪个系统在什么时候开了什么仓。",[14,681,160],{"id":160},[162,683,684,690,696,702],{},[165,685,167,686,689],{},[41,687,688],{},"我交易八个货币对，已经分散了。","”如果其中七个都以美元报价，您手里其实是一个放大了八倍的美元仓位。",[165,691,167,692,695],{},[41,693,694],{},"用不同的经纪商，风险就分散了。","”分散的是交易对手和执行，这确实有价值。但同一个策略在两边一模一样地跑，策略本身的风险并没有分散。",[165,697,167,698,701],{},[41,699,700],{},"相关性够稳定，可以拿来做计划。","”它是在正常行情下测出来的，而在造成大幅回撤的行情里，它会向 1 靠拢。",[165,703,167,704,707,708,712],{},[41,705,706],{},"做多一个货币对、同时做空一个相关的货币对，风险就抵消了。","”这只是把方向性赌注换成了交叉赌注，而持有它要付两份",[35,709,711],{"href":710},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","点差","和两份库存费。",[10,714,715,716,135],{},"想看到合并后的整体风险敞口，而不是四个分开的页面，请阅读",[35,717,718],{"href":200},"在投资组合中追踪多个账户",{"title":30,"searchDepth":203,"depth":203,"links":720},[721,722,723,724,725],{"id":16,"depth":203,"text":16},{"id":62,"depth":203,"text":62},{"id":76,"depth":203,"text":76},{"id":114,"depth":203,"text":115},{"id":160,"depth":203,"text":160},"风险","相关性风险，是指几个仓位或账户看似各自独立，实际押的是同一注。本文讲解相关的风险敞口如何放大回撤，并附数千名交易者的数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-correlation-risk",[731,732,733,734],"what-is-forex-pair-correlation","what-is-drawdown","what-is-position-sizing","what-is-margin-level",{"title":421,"description":727},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-correlation-risk","相关性风险 (Correlation Risk)","2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z","O47Vu9WYin37xzzy2BkP-7d68-Yw2EaPgPLKtMpFkVw",{"id":741,"title":742,"body":743,"category":210,"date":211,"description":1048,"draft":213,"extension":214,"meta":1049,"navigation":216,"path":1050,"related":1051,"seo":1053,"stem":1054,"term":1055,"updated":211,"__hash__":1056},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown.md","什么是最大回撤？公式与回本计算",{"type":7,"value":744,"toc":1041},[745,752,754,757,763,766,816,822,841,843,846,908,911,918,920,926,933,936,946,973,975,991,1006,1008,1034],[10,746,747,748,751],{},"最大回撤是账户整个历史上出现过的最大一次",[35,749,750],{"href":586},"从峰值到谷底的跌幅","，以峰值的百分比表示。它是策略实际造成过的最大亏损，而不是账户主人心里预期的最大亏损。它只增不减：一旦出现 34% 的最大回撤，此后无论再创多少次新高，它都停在 34%。",[14,753,16],{"id":16},[10,755,756],{},"沿着净值曲线逐点往前看，同时记下到目前为止的最高值。每到一个点，就量一量它比这个最高值低了多少。全程找到的最深跌幅，就是最大回撤。",[21,758,761],{"className":759,"code":760,"language":26},[24],"最大回撤 % = 对所有 t 取最大值 [ (峰值(0..t) − 数值(t)) \u002F 峰值(0..t) ] × 100\n",[28,762,760],{"__ignoreMap":30},[10,764,765],{},"结果完全取决于用的是哪条曲线，ShowMyTrades 两条都公布。",[447,767,768,783],{},[450,769,770],{},[453,771,772,774,777,780],{},[456,773,210],{},[456,775,776],{},"计算基础",[456,778,779],{},"是否计入持仓？",[456,781,782],{},"说明了什么",[466,784,785,800],{},[453,786,787,791,794,797],{},[471,788,789],{},[41,790,193],{},[471,792,793],{},"净值（余额 + 浮动盈亏）",[471,795,796],{},"是",[471,798,799],{},"账户在那一刻实际价值的真实跌幅",[453,801,802,807,810,813],{},[471,803,804],{},[41,805,806],{},"余额回撤",[471,808,809],{},"仅已平仓余额",[471,811,812],{},"否",[471,814,815],{},"已实现结果的跌幅",[10,817,818,821],{},[35,819,806],{"href":820},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown-on-balance","的数字更好看，而且这是计算方式决定的：未实现的亏损它根本看不到。网格、马丁格尔和摊平加仓类系统正是利用了这一点：亏损单永远不平，余额曲线自然一直平滑。",[10,823,824,825,339,828,831,832,835,836,840],{},"所以，一个账户显示",[41,826,827],{},"回撤 41%",[41,829,830],{},"余额回撤 6%","，并不是数据出了问题。它曾经比峰值低 41%，已平仓的结果却只承认有过一段 6% 的低谷。净值那个数字才是诚实的，而",[41,833,834],{},"两者之间的差距","本身就说明了策略是怎么做的。如果两个数字很接近，说明仓位基本是在亏损出现的地方附近就平掉了，这正是",[35,837,839],{"href":838},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","止损","的用处。",[14,842,62],{"id":62},[10,844,845],{},"回本是不对称的：亏损是在较大的基数上亏掉的，盈利却得在变小了的基数上靠复利赚回来。",[447,847,848,858],{},[450,849,850],{},[453,851,852,855],{},[456,853,854],{},"最大回撤",[456,856,857],{},"回到原峰值所需涨幅",[466,859,860,868,876,884,892,900],{},[453,861,862,865],{},[471,863,864],{},"10%",[471,866,867],{},"11.1%",[453,869,870,873],{},[471,871,872],{},"20%",[471,874,875],{},"25.0%",[453,877,878,881],{},[471,879,880],{},"30%",[471,882,883],{},"42.9%",[453,885,886,889],{},[471,887,888],{},"50%",[471,890,891],{},"100.0%",[453,893,894,897],{},[471,895,896],{},"70%",[471,898,899],{},"233.3%",[453,901,902,905],{},[471,903,904],{},"90%",[471,906,907],{},"900.0%",[10,909,910],{},"回撤在 20% 以内，这种不对称只是有点麻烦。超过 50%，它就成了这个账户压倒一切的事实：您得靠刚刚让资金腰斩的同一套策略，把资金翻倍。",[10,912,913,914,917],{},"最大回撤还决定了您实际能用的杠杆上限。一个系统历史上回撤过 30%，用两倍的",[35,915,916],{"href":570},"仓位大小","去跑，就意味着 60% 的回撤，而没有任何证据表明您扛得住。",[14,919,76],{"id":76},[10,921,922,923,925],{},"这里的数字来自 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月），最深回撤的中位数是 ",[41,924,110],{},"，但无论往高还是往低，分布都很散。",[10,927,928],{},[929,930],"img",{"alt":931,"src":932},"ShowMyTrades 公开账户的最深回撤：38.5% 低于 5%，23.3% 在 5% 到 20% 之间，20.6% 在 20% 到 50% 之间，17.6% 超过 50%","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fdrawdown-distribution.svg",[10,934,935],{},"中位数 9.7%，尾部却比多数公开宣传估计的更长。",[10,937,938,939,98,942,945],{},"在最差的一端，",[41,940,941],{},"17.6% 的账户曾比峰值低 50% 以上",[41,943,944],{},"38.2% 的账户曾回撤超过 20%","。换句话说，大约每六个账户就有一个碰上过上面回本表里 50% 那一行：光是回到原来的水平，就需要 100% 的涨幅。",[10,947,948,949,952,953,98,956,960,961,964,965,969,970,972],{},"最好的一端同样值得怀疑：",[41,950,951],{},"38.5%"," 的账户最大回撤不到 5%。其中有些确实稳健保守，但很多只是资历太浅。中位数水平的已发布账户有 ",[41,954,955],{},"171 笔已平仓交易",[35,957,959],{"href":958},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-average-trade-length","持仓时间","中位数 ",[41,962,963],{},"2.4 小时","；样本就这么大，最大回撤小，记录的只是“还没发生”，而不是“不会发生”。最大回撤说的是分布的尾部，而",[35,966,968],{"href":967},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-much-history-a-track-record-needs","尾部需要足够长的历史来支撑","，所以这个数字只有在",[35,971,156],{"href":155},"上才真正有分量。",[14,974,115],{"id":114},[10,976,977,978,981,982,343,984,986,987,990],{},"每个已发布账户页面的",[41,979,980],{},"账户统计","面板里，",[41,983,193],{},[41,985,806],{},"紧挨着排在",[41,988,989],{},"月均 %"," 下方，两者都来自经纪商的数据，而非自行填报。先把这两个数字对比一下：它们之间的差距，是整个页面上最快的判断依据。",[10,992,993,994,996,997,1000,1001,1005],{},"图表模块里有一个专门的",[41,995,193],{},"视图，用柱状图画出每日回撤，回答了醒目百分比回答不了的问题：账户在高水位线下方待了",[41,998,999],{},"多久","。七周内就收复的 25% 回撤，和十四个月后仍未收复的 25% 回撤，显示的是同一个数字，却完全不是同一种账户。",[35,1002,1004],{"href":1003},"\u002Ftools\u002Fdrawdown-calculator","回撤计算器","可以拿您自己的余额套用上面的回本表。",[14,1007,160],{"id":160},[162,1009,1010,1016,1022,1028],{},[165,1011,167,1012,1015],{},[41,1013,1014],{},"我的最大回撤今年改善了。","”它不可能改善。它是历史最大值，一年业绩再好也抹不掉。",[165,1017,167,1018,1021],{},[41,1019,1020],{},"两个回撤数字应该一致。","”只有仓位在亏损附近就平掉时，两者才会一致。差距大是死扛亏损单的标志，不是数据出错。",[165,1023,167,1024,1027],{},[41,1025,1026],{},"最大回撤小，风险就低。","”历史短的话就不一定。把它当风险指标之前，先问问它是多少笔交易、多少个月得出来的。",[165,1029,167,1030,1033],{},[41,1031,1032],{},"百分比回撤和金额回撤可以互相替代。","”$2,000 的账户和 $200,000 的账户各跌 30%，风险特征相同，感受却天差地别；但能在账户之间比较的，只有百分比。",[10,1035,1036,1037,135],{},"想在实时账户页面上把最大回撤和其他指标放在一起看，请阅读",[35,1038,1040],{"href":1039},"\u002Fguides\u002Freading-a-trading-account-dashboard","如何读懂交易账户控制台",{"title":30,"searchDepth":203,"depth":203,"links":1042},[1043,1044,1045,1046,1047],{"id":16,"depth":203,"text":16},{"id":62,"depth":203,"text":62},{"id":76,"depth":203,"text":76},{"id":114,"depth":203,"text":115},{"id":160,"depth":203,"text":160},"最大回撤是账户有史以来从峰值到谷底的最深跌幅。本文介绍计算公式、回本对照表，以及数千个账户的真实分布。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown",[732,733,412,1052],"what-is-a-profit-factor",{"title":742,"description":1048},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","最大回撤 (Maximum Drawdown)","H1pMHY5DcM__vxubkgaLVDhrp8FNU0EbYexdvdzrV1o",{"id":1058,"title":1059,"body":1060,"category":210,"date":211,"description":1265,"draft":213,"extension":214,"meta":1266,"navigation":216,"path":1267,"related":1268,"seo":1271,"stem":1272,"term":1273,"updated":1274,"__hash__":1275},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return.md","什么是时间加权收益率（TWR）？",{"type":7,"value":1061,"toc":1258},[1062,1068,1070,1073,1079,1082,1089,1095,1098,1108,1114,1117,1119,1122,1133,1135,1145,1166,1179,1181,1199,1220,1222,1251],[10,1063,1064,1065,1067],{},"时间加权收益率（TWR）只衡量交易决策本身带来的收益，入金和出金都不算在内。做法是在每一笔资金进出的地方把账户历史切开，每一段单独计算，再把各段复利相乘。ShowMyTrades 账户页面上的",[41,1066,665],{},"，就是这个数字。",[14,1069,16],{"id":16},[10,1071,1072],{},"钱转进转出，余额就会变，跟交易毫无关系。TWR 的办法是：资金进出一律不进入收益计算。",[21,1074,1077],{"className":1075,"code":1076,"language":26},[24],"TWR = [(1 + r₁) × (1 + r₂) × … × (1 + rₙ)] − 1\n\nrᵢ = 第 i 期的盈利 \u002F 第 i 期开始时的余额\n",[28,1078,1076],{"__ignoreMap":30},[10,1080,1081],{},"每一期都夹在两次资金进出之间。一笔入金结束上一期，下一期从入金后更大的余额开始；入金本身永远不会出现在分子里。在 ShowMyTrades 上，子期间按天划分：每天的收益以当天开始时的余额为基准，扣除当天产生的成本，再把每天的收益复利相乘。",[10,1083,1084,1085,1088],{},"举个直白的例子。用 $10,000 开户，赚了 $2,000：第一期收益 20%。再入金 $10,000，余额变成 $22,000，又赚了 $2,000：第二期收益是 9.1%，因为基数变大了。看余额，是投入 $20,000 赚了 +$4,000；看 TWR，则是 (1 + 0.20) × (1 + 0.091) − 1 = ",[41,1086,1087],{},"+30.9%","。入金本身一分钱也没赚到。",[10,1090,1091],{},[929,1092],{"alt":1093,"src":1094},"一笔 $10,000 入金让余额线跳上一个台阶，时间加权收益率线却纹丝不动","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fdeposit-vs-twr.svg",[10,1096,1097],{},"钱到账那天，余额跳了上去，增长却没动。",[10,1099,1100,1101,1107],{},"这就是它和同一面板上另一个百分比",[35,1102,1104],{"href":1103},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-absolute-gain",[41,1105,1106],{},"绝对增长","的区别：",[21,1109,1112],{"className":1110,"code":1111,"language":26},[24],"绝对增长 = 已平仓净盈亏 \u002F 入金总额 × 100\n",[28,1113,1111],{"__ignoreMap":30},[10,1115,1116],{},"绝对增长回答的是：投进去的钱，账户赚回了多少；TWR 回答的是：这些钱交易得好不好。两者都很诚实，但只有 TWR 能在规模不同、资金进出方式不同的账户之间比较。",[14,1118,62],{"id":62},[10,1120,1121],{},"业绩记录之所以能拿来比较，靠的就是 TWR。没有它，百分比可以靠在回撤中入金来美化：$10,000 的账户亏掉 $5,000，是 −50%；第二天补进 $10,000，同一个还没填上的窟窿，按新余额算就只剩 −33%。",[10,1123,1124,1125,1129,1130,1132],{},"反过来也一样，所以它是公平的数字，而不是讨好人的数字。出金抬不高 TWR，赶在好月份之前恰到好处地入金也抬不高。剩下的，就是交易决策本身的",[35,1126,1128],{"href":1127},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve","净值曲线","，这也是",[35,1131,156],{"href":155},"的读者唯一能让交易者负责的部分。",[14,1134,76],{"id":76},[10,1136,1137,1138,1141,1142,135],{},"以下数字描述的是 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月），",[41,1139,1140],{},"时间加权收益率中位数为 +3.2%","，按时间加权计算为正的账户占 ",[41,1143,1144],{},"63.0%",[10,1146,1147,1148,1154,1155,1158,1159,98,1162,1165],{},"由此能读出两点。第一，按这个标准，多数已发布账户确实在赚钱，并不像网上说的那样一片狼藉。第二，分布的中间值很小：+3.2%，而",[41,1149,1150,1151,1153],{},"最深",[35,1152,193],{"href":586},"的中位数为 9.7%","，也就是说，典型账户一路上回吐的幅度，大约是最终收益的三倍。同一批账户中，",[41,1156,1157],{},"38.2%"," 曾",[35,1160,1161],{"href":192},"回撤超过 20%",[41,1163,1164],{},"17.6%"," 曾回撤超过 50%。",[10,1167,1168,1169,1171,1172,1175,1176,135],{},"这里的中位数账户有 ",[41,1170,955],{},"，样本总共 ",[41,1173,1174],{},"15,436,464 笔已同步交易","。历史很短的账户 TWR 再高，",[35,1177,1178],{"href":967},"说明的也只是几周的表现，而不是一套方法",[14,1180,115],{"id":114},[10,1182,977,1183,1185,1186,1188,1189,1191,1192,1195,1196,1198],{},[41,1184,980],{},"面板中，第一行、也是最醒目的一行就是",[41,1187,665],{},"，它就是 TWR。",[41,1190,1106],{},"紧挨在它下面，受资金进出影响的数字和不受影响的数字，始终放在一起。再往下两行的",[41,1193,1194],{},"日均 %"," 和",[41,1197,989],{},"，也都出自同一条时间加权序列。",[10,1200,1201,1202,1204,1205,1208,1209,1212,1213,1219],{},"图表模块是一个可以切换视图的面板，而不是一摞图表，它用两种方式画出 TWR。",[41,1203,665],{},"视图显示账户整个历史上按日复利的 TWR；",[41,1206,1207],{},"逐笔交易增长","把同一条序列按交易序号而不是日期来画，交易频率就一目了然：两个都是 +40% 的账户，按日历看一模一样，可如果一个只做了 90 笔、另一个做了 9,000 笔，按交易序号看就完全不同。",[41,1210,1211],{},"余额","视图显示原始金额，入金出金都在里面，这正是 TWR 要纠正的那幅画面。",[35,1214,1216],{"href":1215},"\u002Fguides\u002Fmonthly-returns-table-explained",[41,1217,1218],{},"月度收益表","则把同一条时间加权序列按月、按年拆开。",[14,1221,160],{"id":160},[162,1223,1224,1230,1239,1245],{},[165,1225,167,1226,1229],{},[41,1227,1228],{},"TWR 就是我赚了多少钱。","”它不是金额。一个账户如果大部分时间都用很小的仓位交易，TWR 可以是 +80%，利润却很少。",[165,1231,167,1232,1235,1236,135],{},[41,1233,1234],{},"我的入金拉低了增长。","”不可能。一笔入金只是结束一个计算期、开始下一个，对收益没有任何正面或负面的贡献。人们通常注意到的，其实是入金没能像余额图那样把百分比",[41,1237,1238],{},"抬高",[165,1240,167,1241,1244],{},[41,1242,1243],{},"TWR 和绝对增长应该一致。","”只有只入金一次、从未出金的账户，两者才会一致。出现差异，说明的是资金进出的情况，不是数据出错。",[165,1246,167,1247,1250],{},[41,1248,1249],{},"它是年度数字。","”它是从账户第一笔交易起的累计值，没有年化。三年 +3.2% 和三个月 +3.2%，是完全不同的结果。",[10,1252,1253,1254,135],{},"想看具体算例，包括入金如何掩盖回撤，请参阅",[35,1255,1257],{"href":1256},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftime-weighted-return-explained","时间加权收益率详解",{"title":30,"searchDepth":203,"depth":203,"links":1259},[1260,1261,1262,1263,1264],{"id":16,"depth":203,"text":16},{"id":62,"depth":203,"text":62},{"id":76,"depth":203,"text":76},{"id":114,"depth":203,"text":115},{"id":160,"depth":203,"text":160},"时间加权收益率把各子期间的收益复利相乘，入金和出金因此不影响结果。本文介绍公式、它与绝对增长率的区别，以及公开账户的数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return",[1269,732,412,1270],"what-is-an-equity-curve","what-is-expectancy",{"title":1059,"description":1265},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","时间加权收益率 (Time-Weighted Return)","2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z","F3XPVDAsdwIkxdhz7jxOdVqNAqaclnEAOAx0877XIQI",[1277,1278],{"path":286},{"path":217},1793898059151]