[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1229},["ShallowReactive",2],{"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy":3,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy-related":285,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy-langs":1226},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":267,"date":268,"description":269,"draft":270,"extension":271,"meta":272,"navigation":273,"path":274,"related":275,"seo":280,"stem":281,"term":282,"updated":283,"__hash__":284},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy.md","什么是期望值？公式、示例与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":259},"minimark",[9,13,17,28,36,39,45,48,51,60,68,76,79,93,111,130,134,149,195,215,218,252],[10,11,12],"p",{},"期望值就是一笔交易的平均结果，可以用货币或点数表示：账户每开一笔仓位，平均能赚多少。它由胜率、平均盈利、亏损率、平均亏损四个数字算出，回答的是“这套系统每做一笔到底赚不赚钱”，而且结果可以直接乘以交易笔数。正期望值重复得足够多，就是一门生意；负期望值则是在倒数计时。",[14,15,16],"h2",{"id":16},"工作原理",[18,19,24],"pre",{"className":20,"code":22,"language":23},[21],"language-text","期望值 = (胜率 × 平均盈利) − (亏损率 × 平均亏损)\n\n亏损率 = 1 − 胜率\n","text",[25,26,22],"code",{"__ignoreMap":27},"",[10,29,30,31,35],{},"假设一个系统胜率 40%，每笔盈利单赚 $300，每笔亏损单亏 $100：(0.40 × $300) − (0.60 × $100) = $120 − $60 = ",[32,33,34],"strong",{},"每笔交易 +$60","。一年做四百笔，预期结果就是 $24,000，这还没考虑仓位大小的变化，也没算上任何意外。",[10,37,38],{},"把同一个公式改用 R 倍数来写（R 即一笔平均亏损），账户货币的影响就去掉了，不同系统也能放在一起比较：",[18,40,43],{"className":41,"code":42,"language":23},[21],"期望值 (R) = (胜率 × 盈亏比) − (1 − 胜率)\n\n盈亏比 = 平均盈利 \u002F 平均亏损\n",[25,44,42],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,46,47],{},"算出来的数字有没有意义，取决于两点。第一，输入里必须已经扣除成本：点差、佣金和库存费每笔都要付，盈利单因此变小，亏损单因此变大。第二，平均值背后要有足够多的交易，不能让某一笔特别大的结果单独左右它。",[14,49,50],{"id":50},"为什么重要",[10,52,53,54,59],{},"统计数字要变成交易计划，靠的就是期望值。",[55,56,58],"a",{"href":57},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","盈利因子","告诉您赚的钱和亏的钱之比；期望值告诉您再多做一笔交易值多少钱，把它乘以交易频率，就能得出一个月的预期结果。",[10,61,62,63,67],{},"胜率掩盖的取舍，也会在期望值里暴露出来。胜率只是优势的一半，另一半是",[55,64,66],{"href":65},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio","风险回报比","，期望值正是两者的交汇点。动其中任何一个，结果都会跟着变；两个都不动，故事讲得再好，结果也不会变。",[10,69,70,71,75],{},"期望值还划出了成本的底线。如果一个策略每笔的期望是 +$8，而一个来回的",[55,72,74],{"href":73},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","点差","加佣金就要 $7，剩下的那点东西已经算不上策略了。",[14,77,78],{"id":78},"数据显示了什么",[10,80,81,82,85,86,85,89,92],{},"以下数字描述的是 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月）取中间水平：",[32,83,84],{},"胜率中位数 68.8%","，",[32,87,88],{},"盈利因子中位数 1.28",[32,90,91],{},"已平仓交易数中位数 171 笔","。",[10,94,95,96,99,100,103,104,92],{},"有了这几个数字，这个“中间账户”的期望值就能算出来。把盈利因子公式反推回去，平均盈利约为平均亏损的 ",[32,97,98],{},"0.58 倍","；剩下的用 R 形式一算便知：(0.688 × 0.58) − 0.312 = ",[32,101,102],{},"+0.087R","。也就是说，每做一笔交易，只赚到一笔平均亏损的百分之九。171 笔交易下来，全部利润加起来大约只相当于十五笔平均亏损，所以尽管近七成交易以盈利平仓，",[32,105,106,110],{},[55,107,109],{"href":108},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","时间加权收益率","的中位数也只有 +3.2%",[10,112,113,114,117,118,121,122,125,126,129],{},"优势薄到这个程度，成本就不是可以忽略的零头了。已发布账户累计支付了 ",[32,115,116],{},"$4,782,670 佣金","和 ",[32,119,120],{},"$862,547 库存费","；在产生过库存费的账户中，",[32,123,124],{},"86.3%"," 的净库存费为负。持仓时间中位数只有 ",[32,127,128],{},"2.4 小时","，在这种节奏下，0.087R 的优势要想保住，一个来回的成本相对平均亏损就必须足够小。",[14,131,133],{"id":132},"在-showmytrades-上的位置","在 ShowMyTrades 上的位置",[10,135,136,137,140,141,144,145,148],{},"每个已发布账户页面的",[32,138,139],{},"高级统计","模块里都有",[32,142,143],{},"期望值","这一行，位于",[32,146,147],{},"表现指标","分组。它在同一行里给出两种单位（先点数，后账户货币）：点数便于在不同品种之间比较，货币金额便于在不同仓位大小之间比较，单看哪一个都不完整。",[10,150,151,152,155,156,159,160,159,163,166,167,170,171,177,178,166,181,184,185,159,188,166,191,194],{},"它的四个输入在同一模块的",[32,153,154],{},"交易","分组里：",[32,157,158],{},"胜率","、",[32,161,162],{},"平均盈利",[32,164,165],{},"平均亏损","和",[32,168,169],{},"总交易数","，旁边还有",[55,172,174],{"href":173},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-average-trade-length",[32,175,176],{},"平均持仓时间","，能看出这点薄薄的单笔优势是几小时赚到的，还是几周才赚到的。已经扣除的成本显示在",[32,179,180],{},"佣金合计",[32,182,183],{},"已付库存费合计","两行，每笔交易的明细则在交易表格的",[32,186,187],{},"盈利（毛额）",[32,189,190],{},"库存费",[32,192,193],{},"佣金","列。",[10,196,197,198,204,205,159,208,166,211,214],{},"想检验一个期望值到底是一种优势，还是几种优势平均出来的，可以打开",[55,199,201],{"href":200},"\u002Fguides\u002Fcustom-analysis-and-filter-presets",[32,202,203],{},"自定义分析","侧边面板：按品种、魔术号、方向、日期范围、星期或小时筛选出子集，整个区块就会重新计算。高级统计还提供",[32,206,207],{},"星期",[32,209,210],{},"小时",[32,212,213],{},"持续时间","视图，不用筛选就能把同一结果拆开来看。",[14,216,217],{"id":217},"常见误解",[219,220,221,234,240,246],"ul",{},[222,223,224,225,228,229,233],"li",{},"“",[32,226,227],{},"正期望值就意味着我会赚钱。","”它只说明平均每笔交易是盈利的。仓位定错了，正期望值的系统照样会亏光：能不能活下来，是",[55,230,232],{"href":231},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理","的问题，不是期望值的问题。",[222,235,224,236,239],{},[32,237,238],{},"期望值就是我的平均每笔交易。","”前提是平均值按净额计算。按毛利润算就漏掉了佣金和库存费，而薄优势恰恰是在这里消失的。",[222,241,224,242,245],{},[32,243,244],{},"高胜率就意味着正期望值。","”单看胜率说明不了任何问题。盈亏比为 0.58 时，60% 的胜率是个亏钱的系统。",[222,247,224,248,251],{},[32,249,250],{},"这个数字很稳定。","”只有几百笔交易时并不稳定。一笔特别大的盈利单就能把整个记录的期望值抬上去，把它去掉再算一遍，是个公平的检验。",[10,253,254,255,92],{},"哪些指标值得长期追踪、该按什么顺序看，请参阅",[55,256,258],{"href":257},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftracking-trading-performance","交易表现追踪完全指南",{"title":27,"searchDepth":260,"depth":260,"links":261},2,[262,263,264,265,266],{"id":16,"depth":260,"text":16},{"id":50,"depth":260,"text":50},{"id":78,"depth":260,"text":78},{"id":132,"depth":260,"text":133},{"id":217,"depth":260,"text":217},"指标","2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","期望值是单笔交易的平均盈亏：(胜率 × 平均盈利) − (亏损率 × 平均亏损)。本文给出公式、完整算例和公开账户的真实数据。",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy",[276,277,278,279],"what-is-a-profit-factor","what-is-risk-reward-ratio","what-is-position-sizing","what-is-drawdown",{"title":5,"description":269},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy","期望值 (Expectancy)","2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z","4gLLgYBgHrrvWKTKFixk2tUfM9kXODaMx4LcyeirnhQ",[286,549,751,960],{"id":287,"title":288,"body":289,"category":267,"date":268,"description":539,"draft":270,"extension":271,"meta":540,"navigation":273,"path":541,"related":542,"seo":545,"stem":546,"term":547,"updated":268,"__hash__":548},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor.md","什么是盈利因子？公式、合理数值与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":290,"toc":532},[291,294,296,302,305,308,314,317,384,386,389,397,404,406,420,427,430,436,447,449,470,491,493,527],[10,292,293],{},"盈利因子就是总盈利除以总亏损：所有盈利交易赚的钱加起来，除以所有亏损交易亏的钱。盈利因子 1.50，意思是账户每亏 $1.00，就赚回 $1.50。低于 1.00，不管胜率多高，账户从结构上就注定亏钱。",[14,295,16],{"id":16},[18,297,300],{"className":298,"code":299,"language":23},[21],"盈利因子 = 总盈利 \u002F |总亏损|\n",[25,301,299],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,303,304],{},"注意这个公式没有考虑什么：账户交易了多久、用了多少资金、中途跌得有多深。",[10,306,307],{},"它也可以用胜率、平均盈利和平均亏损来写，这样写就能拿来诊断问题：",[18,309,312],{"className":310,"code":311,"language":23},[21],"盈利因子 = (胜率 × 平均盈利) \u002F ((1 − 胜率) × 平均亏损)\n",[25,313,311],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,315,316],{},"两个截然不同的系统，可能算出同一个数值。胜率 30%、盈利单平均是亏损单的四倍，结果是 1.71。胜率 80%、盈利单只有亏损单的一半，结果是 2.00。两者都能赚钱，但出问题的方式不同，做起来的感受也完全两样。",[318,319,320,332],"table",{},[321,322,323],"thead",{},[324,325,326,329],"tr",{},[327,328,58],"th",{},[327,330,331],{},"解读",[333,334,335,344,352,360,368,376],"tbody",{},[324,336,337,341],{},[338,339,340],"td",{},"低于 1.00",[338,342,343],{},"亏钱，而且是结构性的，不是差一点",[324,345,346,349],{},[338,347,348],{},"1.00 – 1.10",[338,350,351],{},"还在噪声范围内，一周行情不好就没了",[324,353,354,357],{},[338,355,356],{},"1.10 – 1.30",[338,358,359],{},"优势很薄但真实存在，前提是样本够大",[324,361,362,365],{},[338,363,364],{},"1.30 – 2.00",[338,366,367],{},"策略有效",[324,369,370,373],{},[338,371,372],{},"2.00 – 3.00",[338,374,375],{},"很强。请核对交易笔数，以及成本是否算全",[324,377,378,381],{},[338,379,380],{},"高于 3.00",[338,382,383],{},"在长期历史里很少见：通常是样本太短、靠几笔超大盈利撑着，或者还有亏损单没平仓",[14,385,50],{"id":50},[10,387,388],{},"要回答“这个系统到底赚不赚钱”，盈利因子是最干净的单一指标。它也比胜率难包装得多，因为每一笔亏损都按全额计入分母。",[10,390,391,392,396],{},"但它不是风险指标。盈利因子不管顺序：一个账户一个月赚够全部利润、另外十一个月一直失血，和一个每周稳步上涨的账户，数值可以一模一样。所以要和",[55,393,395],{"href":394},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","最大回撤","一起看，否则只看到了终点，没看到过程。",[10,398,399,403],{},[55,400,402],{"href":401},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-backtesting","回测","给出的盈利因子同样要小心：优化器追求的就是把这个比值做到最大，所以回测里的高数值，往往反映的是拟合做得多好，而不是策略本身多好。",[14,405,78],{"id":78},[10,407,408,409,85,412,419],{},"以下数字只描述在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。截至 2026 年 8 月，有交易历史的已发布账户中，",[32,410,411],{},"盈利因子中位数为 1.28",[32,413,414,418],{},[55,415,417],{"href":416},"\u002Fguides\u002Fwin-rate-is-not-an-edge","胜率中位数","为 68.8%","。两个数字都是扣除成本后的：每笔交易先计入库存费和佣金，再判定是盈利单还是亏损单，所以 1.28 是净值，不是毛值。",[10,421,422],{},[423,424],"img",{"alt":425,"src":426},"ShowMyTrades 公开账户的中位数：68.8% 的胜率与 1.28 的盈利因子并列","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fwin-rate-vs-payoff.svg",[10,428,429],{},"同一组数据的两个中位数：胜率看着很高，背后的优势却很薄。",[10,431,432,433,435],{},"要看的正是这两个数放在一起。中位数账户里，将近七成的交易以盈利平仓，可整体优势也只是每亏 $1.00 赚 $1.28。拿一个两项都正好处在中位数的账户，把公式倒推回去：它的平均盈利只有平均亏损的约 ",[32,434,98],{},"。赢得多和赚得多是两回事，前者要容易制造得多：亏损单扛着不平，盈利单早早落袋，胜率就往上走，盈利因子却往下掉。",[10,437,438,439,442,443,446],{},"同一组账户的夏普比率中位数是 ",[32,440,441],{},"0.05","，中位数账户有 ",[32,444,445],{},"171 笔已平仓交易","。样本这么小，盈利因子高于 3.00 并不能证明系统更强，只能说明样本还太少，最差的那笔交易还没出现。",[14,448,133],{"id":132},[10,450,136,451,140,453,455,456,159,458,159,460,159,462,159,464,166,466,469],{},[32,452,139],{},[32,454,58],{},"，旁边是能解释它的几个数字：",[32,457,158],{},[32,459,162],{},[32,461,165],{},[32,463,143],{},[32,465,169],{},[32,467,468],{},"夏普比率","。这六个数字合起来，能说清单一比值说不清的事。",[10,471,472,473,480,481,166,483,485,486,490],{},"有两个产品细节值得注意。第一，已经算进比值的成本会另外逐项列出：交易表格有",[32,474,187,475,193],{},[32,476,477,478,166],{},"列，",[32,479,190],{},"各占一列；高级统计还汇总了",[32,482,180],{},[32,484,183],{},"，可以看出净值数字里扣掉了多少成本。在所有已发布账户中，这两项合计分别是佣金 $4,782,670、库存费 $862,547。第二，",[55,487,488],{"href":200},[32,489,203],{},"可以先筛选（按日期范围、品种、魔术号、方向或手数），再对子集重算整个统计区块。用它可以检验：去掉表现最好的那个季度，或者去掉最赚钱的那个品种，盈利因子是否依然站得住。",[14,492,217],{"id":217},[219,494,495,506,515,521],{},[222,496,224,497,500,501,505],{},[32,498,499],{},"盈利因子高于 1，就说明我在赚钱。","”前提是成本已经算进比值。如果没有，一个毛值 1.05 的高频系统，",[55,502,504],{"href":503},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-cost-percentage","计入佣金和库存费之后","可能持平甚至亏损。",[222,507,224,508,511,512,514],{},[32,509,510],{},"盈利因子高，风险就低。","”它反映不了回撤、仓位大小和盈亏顺序。马丁格尔式逐级加仓的",[55,513,232],{"href":231},"方案，可以一直显示 4.00，直到哪天突然失灵。",[222,516,224,517,520],{},[32,518,519],{},"不同时间周期之间可以直接比。","”不能，它没有年化。剥头皮交易者 20,000 笔交易得出的 1.20，和波段交易者 60 笔交易得出的 1.20，说的不是一回事。",[222,522,224,523,526],{},[32,524,525],{},"未平仓的交易不影响它。","”会影响，恰恰因为它们不在里面。一直不平的浮动亏损完全不计入总亏损，在平仓之前会一直把比值抬高。",[10,528,529,530,92],{},"该长期追踪哪些指标、按什么顺序看，请参阅",[55,531,258],{"href":257},{"title":27,"searchDepth":260,"depth":260,"links":533},[534,535,536,537,538],{"id":16,"depth":260,"text":16},{"id":50,"depth":260,"text":50},{"id":78,"depth":260,"text":78},{"id":132,"depth":260,"text":133},{"id":217,"depth":260,"text":217},"盈利因子是总盈利除以总亏损，低于 1.0 的账户注定亏损。本文给出各数值区间的解读，以及数千个账户的中位数 1.28。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor",[279,543,278,544],"what-is-maximum-drawdown","what-is-backtesting",{"title":288,"description":539},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","盈利因子 (Profit Factor)","OLz2UdKZBQ-s3NM0RQISYNe6Jrhtmy0tM84z39S0Thk",{"id":550,"title":551,"body":552,"category":267,"date":268,"description":742,"draft":270,"extension":271,"meta":743,"navigation":273,"path":744,"related":745,"seo":747,"stem":748,"term":749,"updated":268,"__hash__":750},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown.md","什么是回撤？定义、公式与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":553,"toc":735},[554,557,559,562,568,571,574,606,608,611,617,620,623,633,635,641,654,657,659,681,696,698,728],[10,555,556],{},"回撤是账户价值从此前的峰值跌到之后低点的幅度，用峰值的百分比表示。它衡量的是账户离自己最好的时候跌了多少，而不是某一笔交易亏了多少。回撤是累积的，所以 20% 的回撤，可能来自四十笔小亏损，也可能来自一次巨亏。",[14,558,16],{"id":16},[10,560,561],{},"每个账户都有一条随时更新的高水位线，也就是它曾经达到的最高价值。回撤就是任意时刻账户低于这条线的距离。",[18,563,566],{"className":564,"code":565,"language":23},[21],"回撤 % = (峰值 − 当前值) \u002F 峰值 × 100\n",[25,567,565],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,569,570],{},"这条线只升不降。账户一创新高，高水位线就移到新高，回撤归零。在那之前，只要低于峰值，每一天都算在回撤中，不管账户是在下跌还是在横盘磨蹭。",[10,572,573],{},"这个数字到底是什么意思，要看三组区分：",[219,575,576,586,592],{},[222,577,578,581,582,585],{},[32,579,580],{},"相对回撤与绝对回撤","。相对回撤就是上面的百分比。MetaTrader 报告的绝对回撤，是账户低于",[32,583,584],{},"初始入金","的金额，这是完全不同的数字：一个当前比峰值低 40% 的账户，绝对回撤可能显示为 0%。",[222,587,588,591],{},[32,589,590],{},"净值回撤与余额回撤","。净值回撤包含持仓的浮动亏损。余额回撤只看已平仓交易，所以一笔亏损只要不兑现，就永远不会出现在里面。",[222,593,594,597,598,600,601,605],{},[32,595,596],{},"当前回撤与最大回撤","。当前回撤是账户今天的位置。历史上最差的那一次是",[55,599,395],{"href":394},"，大多数",[55,602,604],{"href":603},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-track-record","业绩记录","引用的就是它。",[14,607,50],{"id":50},[10,609,610],{},"一个策略值不值得投资，回撤是硬约束，因为亏损和盈利的复利效果并不对称。跌 20%，要涨 25% 才能回本；跌 50%，要涨 100%。",[10,612,613],{},[423,614],{"alt":615,"src":616},"亏损 10% 需要 11.1% 的盈利才能弥补，25% 需要 33.3%，50% 需要 100%，70% 需要 233%","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Frecovery-asymmetry.svg",[10,618,619],{},"跌幅一旦超过 50%，回本所需的涨幅就比亏损本身还大。",[10,621,622],{},"让人离开市场的，也是这个数字。几乎没有人会在急速暴跌中放弃，那时心里还抱着希望。人们是在不温不火的回升熬到第九个月时放弃的。深度只占一半，另一半是持续时间，而它在收益图上根本看不出来。",[10,624,625,626,166,628,632],{},"另外，回撤主要取决于",[55,627,232],{"href":231},[55,629,631],{"href":630},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","止损","纪律，远远超过入场质量。两位交易者信号完全一样、手数不同，胜率会一模一样，生存能力却天差地别。",[14,634,78],{"id":78},[10,636,637,638,92],{},"以下数字只描述在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的账户，并不是对全体交易者的调查。截至 2026 年 8 月，根据 15,436,464 笔已同步交易，有交易历史的已发布账户，历史最深回撤中位数为 ",[32,639,640],{},"9.7%",[10,642,643,644,646,647,85,650,653],{},"再看同一批账户赚了多少。",[55,645,109],{"href":108},"中位数为 ",[32,648,649],{},"+3.2%",[32,651,652],{},"63.0%"," 的账户长期为正。也就是说，处在中位数的账户，一路上回吐的幅度，大约是最终收益的三倍：承受的风险比得到的结果大，而且大出的是倍数，不是一星半点。",[10,655,656],{},"让回撤数字有意义的，是这个比值，而不是回撤本身有多深。宣称收益很高、回撤却只有百分之二三的账户并非不可能，但它处在这个分布的最边缘，这种极端情况要靠账户页面上的其余内容来证明。",[14,658,133],{"id":132},[10,660,661,662,665,666,669,670,673,674,680],{},"在每个已发布账户页面上，",[32,663,664],{},"账户统计","面板在",[32,667,668],{},"月均 %"," 下方连续两行显示两个数字：",[32,671,672],{},"回撤","，基于净值计算，包含持仓的浮动亏损；以及",[55,675,677],{"href":676},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown-on-balance",[32,678,679],{},"余额回撤","，只基于已平仓结果。两者都是历史最大值，不是今天的读数，而且都来自经纪商的数据，不是账户所有者自己填的。",[10,682,683,684,686,687,690,691,695],{},"图表模块有一个",[32,685,672],{},"视图，用柱状图画出账户整个生命周期的每日回撤。下跌",[32,688,689],{},"持续了多久","，在这里直接就能看出来，不用靠推测，这是任何一个醒目的百分比都表达不了的。",[55,692,694],{"href":693},"\u002Ftools\u002Fdrawdown-calculator","回撤计算器","可以用您自己的余额算出回本需要多少涨幅。",[14,697,217],{"id":217},[219,699,700,706,712,722],{},[222,701,224,702,705],{},[32,703,704],{},"回撤就是我亏得最多的那一笔。","”不是。它是一条从峰值到谷底的累积路径，中间可能有几百笔交易，盈利单也包括在内。",[222,707,224,708,711],{},[32,709,710],{},"回本之后，我的回撤又回到零了。","”当前回撤是这样。最大回撤按设计永远不会降：这样，一个好季度就抹不掉一个坏季度。",[222,713,224,714,717,718,92],{},[32,715,716],{},"回撤低，说明风险低。","”新账户回撤低，通常只说明还没经受考验。这里已发布账户的已平仓交易数中位数是 171 笔；不到几百笔时，",[55,719,721],{"href":720},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-much-history-a-track-record-needs","回撤小反映的是样本量，而不是风险特征",[222,723,224,724,727],{},[32,725,726],{},"余额回撤才是真正的回撤。","”它只是更好看的那个。网格和摊平加仓类系统正是靠死扛亏损单不平，才让余额回撤一直很小。",[10,729,730,731,92],{},"回撤如何和账户页面上的其他数字对照着看，请参阅",[55,732,734],{"href":733},"\u002Fguides\u002Freading-a-trading-account-dashboard","如何读懂交易账户控制台",{"title":27,"searchDepth":260,"depth":260,"links":736},[737,738,739,740,741],{"id":16,"depth":260,"text":16},{"id":50,"depth":260,"text":50},{"id":78,"depth":260,"text":78},{"id":132,"depth":260,"text":133},{"id":217,"depth":260,"text":217},"回撤是账户价值从峰值到谷底的跌幅，用百分比表示。本文介绍公式、它为什么是累积的，以及数千个真实交易账户的数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown",[543,278,746,276],"what-is-a-stop-loss",{"title":551,"description":742},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","回撤 (Drawdown)","tI3oDk8FJPfBVP8sboa1RV13uVvVqDQQ3BpyQp8BpuI",{"id":752,"title":753,"body":754,"category":950,"date":268,"description":951,"draft":270,"extension":271,"meta":952,"navigation":273,"path":953,"related":954,"seo":956,"stem":957,"term":958,"updated":268,"__hash__":959},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing.md","什么是仓位管理？公式与手数计算",{"type":7,"value":755,"toc":943},[756,763,765,768,774,777,783,789,792,812,818,821,823,826,833,835,849,852,866,868,875,903,905,936],[10,757,758,759,762],{},"仓位管理（position sizing）决定一笔交易开多大，依据是这笔交易失败时您愿意亏掉账户的多少。它用两个数把风险百分比换算成手数：到止损的距离，以及这个手数下一个点值多少钱。账户的",[55,760,672],{"href":761},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","特征就由这一个变量决定，而且它是在交易前选定的，不是交易后才发现的。",[14,764,16],{"id":16},[10,766,767],{},"分三步，按顺序来。",[18,769,772],{"className":770,"code":771,"language":23},[21],"1. 风险金额   = 账户余额 × 风险 %\n2. 点值　　   = 合约规模 × 以报价货币计的一个点 × 换算为账户货币的汇率\n3. 仓位大小   = 风险金额 \u002F (止损距离点数 × 每手点值)\n",[25,773,771],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,775,776],{},"举个例子：$10,000 的账户，每笔交易风险 1%，EUR\u002FUSD 止损 50 点，一标准手每点 $10：",[18,778,781],{"className":779,"code":780,"language":23},[21],"风险金额   = 10,000 × 0.01      = $100\n仓位大小   = 100 \u002F (50 × 10)    = 0.20 手\n",[25,782,780],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,784,785,786,788],{},"止损放宽到 100 点，同样 $100 的风险就只能开 0.10 手。风险不变，手数跟着调整。整个思路就在这种反向关系里，也正因为如此，仓位管理和",[55,787,631],{"href":630},"位置不能分开决定。",[10,790,791],{},"实践中最常用的有三种方法：",[219,793,794,800,806],{},[222,795,796,799],{},[32,797,798],{},"固定手数","。不管止损多远、余额多少，永远 0.10 手。简单，但止损和余额一变，单笔风险就跟着漂移。",[222,801,802,805],{},[32,803,804],{},"百分比风险（固定比例）","。也就是上面的公式。风险始终与账户成比例，账户缩水时，按金额计的亏损也随之变小，回本在算术上才有可能。",[222,807,808,811],{},[32,809,810],{},"马丁格尔递增","。亏损后加大手数，想把亏损扳回来。盈利频繁而且每笔都小，净值曲线漂亮得无可挑剔，但结果的分布有一条很厚的左尾，而且会一下子全部兑现。",[10,813,814],{},[423,815],{"alt":816,"src":817},"每次亏损后手数加倍，对比按净值固定比例下单：胜率相同，市场相同，结局相反","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Flot-progression.svg",[10,819,820],{},"一个账户用的是哪一种，光看手数就能看出来。",[14,822,50],{"id":50},[10,824,825],{},"入场决定您能不能赢，仓位管理决定您还能不能留下来做下一笔。两个交易者用同样的信号、同样的止损，胜率一模一样，账户却天差地别，因为一个每笔只冒 0.5% 的风险，另一个冒 8%。",[10,827,828,832],{},[55,829,831],{"href":830},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-leverage","杠杆","真正造成伤害，也是通过仓位管理。高杠杆本身不是风险，只是允许您去冒险。风险来自用这份许可开出的仓位：按它的止损距离，一笔亏损大到账户连亏两次都扛不住。",[14,834,78],{"id":78},[10,836,837,838,841,842,85,845,848],{},"仓位管理会在回撤的尾部留下痕迹。在 ShowMyTrades 上有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月；统计对象是在本站公开的账户，并不代表所有交易者），",[32,839,840],{},"38.2%"," 曾",[55,843,844],{"href":394},"回撤超过 20%",[32,846,847],{},"17.6%"," 亏掉了峰值的一半以上。",[10,850,851],{},"规模定得合理的固定比例账户，很少会落到最后这一档。按每笔 1% 的风险亏掉 50%，大约要连亏 69 次。落在这条尾部里的账户，一般另有原因：亏损后不断加码，或者定手数时根本没考虑止损。",[10,853,854,855,85,858,861,862,865],{},"再看看仓位大小是谁定的：这些账户自动交易占比的中位数为 ",[32,856,857],{},"99%",[32,859,860],{},"53.9%"," 的账户自动化程度超过 90%，低于 10% 的则有 ",[32,863,864],{},"42.2%","。在一半以上的已发布账户上，仓位大小只是 EA 设置里的一行，设好一次，余额怎么变都不再调整。",[14,867,133],{"id":132},[10,869,870,874],{},[55,871,873],{"href":872},"\u002Ftools\u002Fposition-size-calculator","仓位计算器","用实时价格、以您的账户货币套用上面的公式，风险可以按百分比或固定金额设定，止损可以用价格或点数表示。",[10,876,877,878,881,882,885,886,888,889,892,893,895,896,902],{},"在已发布账户的页面上，仓位管理可以实际核查，不必凭空猜测。",[32,879,880],{},"交易表格","有一列",[32,883,884],{},"交易量","，列出每笔交易的手数，每亏一次就加一级的手数一眼就能看出来。",[32,887,203],{},"提供",[32,890,891],{},"手数","的最小\u002F最大筛选：把下限设在账户正常手数之上，看看剩下的交易是不是都紧跟在亏损之后出现，这就是马丁格尔的特征。",[32,894,139],{},"模块里的",[55,897,899],{"href":898},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftrading-volume-analysis",[32,900,901],{},"总手数","给出汇总值；所有已发布账户累计交易了 1,724,575 手。",[14,904,217],{"id":217},[219,906,907,913,924,930],{},[222,908,224,909,912],{},[32,910,911],{},"风险 2%，就是动用账户的 2%。","”不是。2% 是止损被触发时的亏损。仓位占用的保证金是另一个完全不同的数字，由杠杆决定。",[222,914,224,915,918,919,923],{},[32,916,917],{},"我每笔只冒 1% 的风险，所以最坏也就亏 1%。","”只有同时只开一个仓位时才成立。",[55,920,922],{"href":921},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-correlation-risk","五个相关的仓位","各占 1%，其实是一笔换了装扮的 5% 交易，而相关的货币对偏偏在最伤人的时候同涨同跌。",[222,925,224,926,929],{},[32,927,928],{},"不设止损，就没有风险要算。","”没有止损，仓位大小公式就没有分母：风险不是很小，而是根本无法定义，它的真实数值就是追加保证金通知。",[222,931,224,932,935],{},[32,933,934],{},"复利就是不断加仓。","”固定比例的仓位管理是双向调整的。赢了加手数、亏了却不减，这不是复利，而是一个慢慢收紧的棘轮，把账户推向一场您定仓位时从未考虑过的回撤。",[10,937,938,939,92],{},"全套风险与仓位管理工具，以及各自适用的场景，请参阅",[55,940,942],{"href":941},"\u002Fguides\u002Fforex-calculators-guide","外汇计算器指南",{"title":27,"searchDepth":260,"depth":260,"links":944},[945,946,947,948,949],{"id":16,"depth":260,"text":16},{"id":50,"depth":260,"text":50},{"id":78,"depth":260,"text":78},{"id":132,"depth":260,"text":133},{"id":217,"depth":260,"text":217},"风险","仓位管理就是根据止损距离和点值，把风险百分比换算成手数。本文介绍公式、三种常见方法，以及仓位定错的代价。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing",[279,543,746,955],"what-is-leverage",{"title":753,"description":951},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理 (Position Sizing)","5hi2OmhGtFDhESyalituW-Nh51a9wIit5SKZxEMEQyk",{"id":961,"title":962,"body":963,"category":950,"date":268,"description":1217,"draft":270,"extension":271,"meta":1218,"navigation":273,"path":1219,"related":1220,"seo":1222,"stem":1223,"term":1224,"updated":283,"__hash__":1225},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio.md","什么是风险回报比？盈亏平衡对照表",{"type":7,"value":964,"toc":1210},[965,971,973,979,982,988,1049,1052,1055,1057,1060,1069,1071,1086,1096,1109,1111,1132,1165,1173,1175,1204],[10,966,967,968,970],{},"风险回报比（risk-reward ratio）是一笔交易可能赚到的和可能亏掉的之比，目标距离是止损距离的两倍时，写作 1:2。它首先是计划，其次才是结果：风险是到",[55,969,631],{"href":630},"的距离，回报是到目标的距离。它真正的用处只有一个：确定您需要多高的胜率才能盈亏平衡。",[14,972,16],{"id":16},[18,974,977],{"className":975,"code":976,"language":23},[21],"风险回报比 = 每笔交易的回报 \u002F 每笔交易的风险\n",[25,978,976],{"__ignoreMap":27},[10,980,981],{},"止损 $100、目标 $250，就是 1:2.5。这个比率可以直接换算成所需的胜率：",[18,983,986],{"className":984,"code":985,"language":23},[21],"盈亏平衡胜率 = 1 \u002F (1 + 风险回报比)\n",[25,987,985],{"__ignoreMap":27},[318,989,990,999],{},[321,991,992],{},[324,993,994,996],{},[327,995,66],{},[327,997,998],{},"盈亏平衡胜率",[333,1000,1001,1009,1017,1025,1033,1041],{},[324,1002,1003,1006],{},[338,1004,1005],{},"1:0.5",[338,1007,1008],{},"66.7%",[324,1010,1011,1014],{},[338,1012,1013],{},"1:1",[338,1015,1016],{},"50.0%",[324,1018,1019,1022],{},[338,1020,1021],{},"1:1.5",[338,1023,1024],{},"40.0%",[324,1026,1027,1030],{},[338,1028,1029],{},"1:2",[338,1031,1032],{},"33.3%",[324,1034,1035,1038],{},[338,1036,1037],{},"1:3",[338,1039,1040],{},"25.0%",[324,1042,1043,1046],{},[338,1044,1045],{},"1:5",[338,1047,1048],{},"16.7%",[10,1050,1051],{},"这张表正反都要看。1:3 时，四次错三次，账户依然持平。1:0.5 时（大多数“快速止盈”系统都是这个形态），三笔里要赢两笔，才开始赚到第一美元。",[10,1053,1054],{},"计划中的比率要做两处修正才算实在。成本要从回报里扣掉、再加到风险上，所以纸面上的 1:2，止损较紧时更接近 1:1.8。而且止损必须真的执行，这个比率才成立：跳空时被跳过的止损，代表的风险数字从来就不是真的。",[14,1056,50],{"id":50},[10,1058,1059],{},"风险回报比是交易者能直接掌控的变量。胜率很大程度上是市场给的；盈亏比在下单时就已确定，它决定了您有多少犯错的余地。",[10,1061,1062,1063,166,1066,1068],{},"它还能暴露一种舒服却亏钱的习惯。盈利单早早平掉、亏损单留足空间，会让胜率上升，同时让盈亏比下降。屏幕上越来越好看，账户却越来越差。这一点从胜率上看不出来，在",[55,1064,143],{"href":1065},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy",[55,1067,58],{"href":57},"上却一目了然。",[14,1070,78],{"id":78},[10,1072,1073,1074,159,1076,1078,1079,1081,1082,1085],{},"以下数据描述的是在 ShowMyTrades 上公开的账户，并不代表所有交易者。典型已发布账户的实际盈亏比恰恰是倒过来的。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月），",[32,1075,88],{},[32,1077,84],{},"，意味着平均盈利单约为平均亏损单的 ",[32,1080,98],{},"：盈亏比约为 ",[32,1083,1084],{},"1:0.58","，和通常讲的风险回报比正好颠倒。",[10,1087,1088,1089,1092,1093,92],{},"这个盈亏比对应的盈亏平衡胜率是 ",[32,1090,1091],{},"63.3%","。中位账户的胜率为 68.8%，比一分钱都不赚的那条线只高出约 ",[32,1094,1095],{},"5.5 个百分点",[10,1097,1098,1099,1104,1105,1108],{},"全部余量就这么多。这就解释了，为什么十笔交易赢近七笔的账户，",[32,1100,1101,1103],{},[55,1102,109],{"href":108},"的中位数只有 +3.2%","；也解释了为什么",[32,1106,1107],{},"最深回撤的中位数为 9.7%","，约为最终收益的三倍。盈亏比这么薄，胜率就得一直保持在 70% 附近，而一串再普通不过的亏损，就足以让它在一个季度里跌破 63.3%。",[14,1110,133],{"id":132},[10,1112,1113,1114,166,1116,1118,1119,1121,1122,1124,1125,159,1127,166,1129,1131],{},"虽然没有哪一行叫“风险回报比”，但每个已发布账户的页面上都有实际盈亏比：",[32,1115,162],{},[32,1117,165],{},"并排放在",[32,1120,139],{},"模块的",[32,1123,154],{},"分组里，两者之比就是账户实际做到的盈亏比，而不是原本打算的那个。",[32,1126,158],{},[32,1128,143],{},[32,1130,58],{},"也在同一模块，随便拿一个账户，几秒钟就能把上面的盈亏平衡算一遍。",[10,1133,1134,1135,1137,1138,166,1140,1143,1144,159,1147,1151,1152,1156,1157,1160,1161,1164],{},"每笔交易计划中的比率，在",[32,1136,880],{},"里：",[32,1139,631],{},[32,1141,1142],{},"止盈","两列显示止损和目标设在哪里，旁边还有",[32,1145,1146],{},"点数",[32,1148,187,1149,213],{},[32,1150,166],{},"。一个账户的止盈总是比止损近，等于事先就亮出了自己的盈亏比。如果账户主人选择了",[55,1153,1155],{"href":1154},"\u002Fguides\u002Fpublic-profile-and-custom-slugs","在公开页面上隐藏这些列","，高级统计里的",[32,1158,1159],{},"最佳交易（点）"," 和",[32,1162,1163],{},"最差交易（点）"," 依然能框出分布的范围。",[10,1166,1167,1168,1172],{},"想检验一个盈亏比离开最有利的条件后还站不站得住，",[55,1169,1170],{"href":200},[32,1171,203],{},"侧边面板可以在筛选后的子集上重新计算平均盈利、平均亏损和期望值：只看一个品种、一个魔术号或一个方向。",[14,1174,217],{"id":217},[219,1176,1177,1183,1189,1198],{},[222,1178,224,1179,1182],{},[32,1180,1181],{},"风险回报比越高越好。","”这是有代价的。目标越远，被触及的次数越少，所以 1:5 的胜率即使低于 17% 也没问题，可大多数交易者熬不住这样的过程。",[222,1184,224,1185,1188],{},[32,1186,1187],{},"我的风险回报比是 1:3，因为我下单就是这么设的。","”那是计划中的比率。实际比率要看平均盈利和平均亏损，而手动平仓、部分平仓和滑点，每一次都会让它变。",[222,1190,224,1191,1194,1195,1197],{},[32,1192,1193],{},"风险回报比衡量的是风险。","”它衡量的是单笔交易的形态。账户风险来自",[55,1196,232],{"href":231},"和各笔持仓之间的相关性，与这个比率无关。",[222,1199,224,1200,1203],{},[32,1201,1202],{},"亏钱的系统，把目标拉远就能救回来。","”前提是价格真能走到那里。没有依据就拉远目标，胜率会刚好降到让期望值原地不动的程度。",[10,1205,1206,1207,92],{},"68.8% 与 1.28 之间差距背后的完整算术，以及如何在自己的账户上算一遍，请参阅",[55,1208,1209],{"href":416},"为什么胜率并不是优势",{"title":27,"searchDepth":260,"depth":260,"links":1211},[1212,1213,1214,1215,1216],{"id":16,"depth":260,"text":16},{"id":50,"depth":260,"text":50},{"id":78,"depth":260,"text":78},{"id":132,"depth":260,"text":133},{"id":217,"depth":260,"text":217},"风险回报比是每冒一单位风险能换来多少回报，它决定了您需要多高的胜率才能盈亏平衡。本文附对照表、公式，以及 ShowMyTrades 公开账户的实际数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio",[1221,746,276,278],"what-is-expectancy",{"title":962,"description":1217},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio","风险回报比 (Risk-Reward Ratio)","2c7Tn3WEKmW9Z79On7sD35TS9bptGebWuBCCCJ5xxkY",[1227,1228],{"path":1065},{"path":274},1793898059176]