[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1221},["ShallowReactive",2],{"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown":3,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown-related":364,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown-langs":1218},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":52,"date":348,"description":349,"draft":350,"extension":351,"meta":352,"navigation":353,"path":354,"related":355,"seo":360,"stem":361,"term":362,"updated":348,"__hash__":363},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown.md","什么是最大回撤？公式与回本计算",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":340},"minimark",[9,19,23,26,37,40,99,105,125,128,131,193,196,204,207,214,221,224,235,264,268,285,300,303,332],[10,11,12,13,18],"p",{},"最大回撤是账户整个历史上出现过的最大一次",[14,15,17],"a",{"href":16},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","从峰值到谷底的跌幅","，以峰值的百分比表示。它是策略实际造成过的最大亏损，而不是账户主人心里预期的最大亏损。它只增不减：一旦出现 34% 的最大回撤，此后无论再创多少次新高，它都停在 34%。",[20,21,22],"h2",{"id":22},"工作原理",[10,24,25],{},"沿着净值曲线逐点往前看，同时记下到目前为止的最高值。每到一个点，就量一量它比这个最高值低了多少。全程找到的最深跌幅，就是最大回撤。",[27,28,33],"pre",{"className":29,"code":31,"language":32},[30],"language-text","最大回撤 % = 对所有 t 取最大值 [ (峰值(0..t) − 数值(t)) \u002F 峰值(0..t) ] × 100\n","text",[34,35,31],"code",{"__ignoreMap":36},"",[10,38,39],{},"结果完全取决于用的是哪条曲线，ShowMyTrades 两条都公布。",[41,42,43,62],"table",{},[44,45,46],"thead",{},[47,48,49,53,56,59],"tr",{},[50,51,52],"th",{},"指标",[50,54,55],{},"计算基础",[50,57,58],{},"是否计入持仓？",[50,60,61],{},"说明了什么",[63,64,65,83],"tbody",{},[47,66,67,74,77,80],{},[68,69,70],"td",{},[71,72,73],"strong",{},"回撤",[68,75,76],{},"净值（余额 + 浮动盈亏）",[68,78,79],{},"是",[68,81,82],{},"账户在那一刻实际价值的真实跌幅",[47,84,85,90,93,96],{},[68,86,87],{},[71,88,89],{},"余额回撤",[68,91,92],{},"仅已平仓余额",[68,94,95],{},"否",[68,97,98],{},"已实现结果的跌幅",[10,100,101,104],{},[14,102,89],{"href":103},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown-on-balance","的数字更好看，而且这是计算方式决定的：未实现的亏损它根本看不到。网格、马丁格尔和摊平加仓类系统正是利用了这一点：亏损单永远不平，余额曲线自然一直平滑。",[10,106,107,108,111,112,115,116,119,120,124],{},"所以，一个账户显示",[71,109,110],{},"回撤 41%","、",[71,113,114],{},"余额回撤 6%","，并不是数据出了问题。它曾经比峰值低 41%，已平仓的结果却只承认有过一段 6% 的低谷。净值那个数字才是诚实的，而",[71,117,118],{},"两者之间的差距","本身就说明了策略是怎么做的。如果两个数字很接近，说明仓位基本是在亏损出现的地方附近就平掉了，这正是",[14,121,123],{"href":122},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","止损","的用处。",[20,126,127],{"id":127},"为什么重要",[10,129,130],{},"回本是不对称的：亏损是在较大的基数上亏掉的，盈利却得在变小了的基数上靠复利赚回来。",[41,132,133,143],{},[44,134,135],{},[47,136,137,140],{},[50,138,139],{},"最大回撤",[50,141,142],{},"回到原峰值所需涨幅",[63,144,145,153,161,169,177,185],{},[47,146,147,150],{},[68,148,149],{},"10%",[68,151,152],{},"11.1%",[47,154,155,158],{},[68,156,157],{},"20%",[68,159,160],{},"25.0%",[47,162,163,166],{},[68,164,165],{},"30%",[68,167,168],{},"42.9%",[47,170,171,174],{},[68,172,173],{},"50%",[68,175,176],{},"100.0%",[47,178,179,182],{},[68,180,181],{},"70%",[68,183,184],{},"233.3%",[47,186,187,190],{},[68,188,189],{},"90%",[68,191,192],{},"900.0%",[10,194,195],{},"回撤在 20% 以内，这种不对称只是有点麻烦。超过 50%，它就成了这个账户压倒一切的事实：您得靠刚刚让资金腰斩的同一套策略，把资金翻倍。",[10,197,198,199,203],{},"最大回撤还决定了您实际能用的杠杆上限。一个系统历史上回撤过 30%，用两倍的",[14,200,202],{"href":201},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位大小","去跑，就意味着 60% 的回撤，而没有任何证据表明您扛得住。",[20,205,206],{"id":206},"数据显示了什么",[10,208,209,210,213],{},"这里的数字来自 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月），最深回撤的中位数是 ",[71,211,212],{},"9.7%","，但无论往高还是往低，分布都很散。",[10,215,216],{},[217,218],"img",{"alt":219,"src":220},"ShowMyTrades 公开账户的最深回撤：38.5% 低于 5%，23.3% 在 5% 到 20% 之间，20.6% 在 20% 到 50% 之间，17.6% 超过 50%","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fdrawdown-distribution.svg",[10,222,223],{},"中位数 9.7%，尾部却比多数公开宣传估计的更长。",[10,225,226,227,230,231,234],{},"在最差的一端，",[71,228,229],{},"17.6% 的账户曾比峰值低 50% 以上","，",[71,232,233],{},"38.2% 的账户曾回撤超过 20%","。换句话说，大约每六个账户就有一个碰上过上面回本表里 50% 那一行：光是回到原来的水平，就需要 100% 的涨幅。",[10,236,237,238,241,242,230,245,249,250,253,254,258,259,263],{},"最好的一端同样值得怀疑：",[71,239,240],{},"38.5%"," 的账户最大回撤不到 5%。其中有些确实稳健保守，但很多只是资历太浅。中位数水平的已发布账户有 ",[71,243,244],{},"171 笔已平仓交易",[14,246,248],{"href":247},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-average-trade-length","持仓时间","中位数 ",[71,251,252],{},"2.4 小时","；样本就这么大，最大回撤小，记录的只是“还没发生”，而不是“不会发生”。最大回撤说的是分布的尾部，而",[14,255,257],{"href":256},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-much-history-a-track-record-needs","尾部需要足够长的历史来支撑","，所以这个数字只有在",[14,260,262],{"href":261},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","经验证的业绩记录","上才真正有分量。",[20,265,267],{"id":266},"在-showmytrades-上的位置","在 ShowMyTrades 上的位置",[10,269,270,271,274,275,277,278,280,281,284],{},"每个已发布账户页面的",[71,272,273],{},"账户统计","面板里，",[71,276,73],{},"和",[71,279,89],{},"紧挨着排在",[71,282,283],{},"月均 %"," 下方，两者都来自经纪商的数据，而非自行填报。先把这两个数字对比一下：它们之间的差距，是整个页面上最快的判断依据。",[10,286,287,288,290,291,294,295,299],{},"图表模块里有一个专门的",[71,289,73],{},"视图，用柱状图画出每日回撤，回答了醒目百分比回答不了的问题：账户在高水位线下方待了",[71,292,293],{},"多久","。七周内就收复的 25% 回撤，和十四个月后仍未收复的 25% 回撤，显示的是同一个数字，却完全不是同一种账户。",[14,296,298],{"href":297},"\u002Ftools\u002Fdrawdown-calculator","回撤计算器","可以拿您自己的余额套用上面的回本表。",[20,301,302],{"id":302},"常见误解",[304,305,306,314,320,326],"ul",{},[307,308,309,310,313],"li",{},"“",[71,311,312],{},"我的最大回撤今年改善了。","”它不可能改善。它是历史最大值，一年业绩再好也抹不掉。",[307,315,309,316,319],{},[71,317,318],{},"两个回撤数字应该一致。","”只有仓位在亏损附近就平掉时，两者才会一致。差距大是死扛亏损单的标志，不是数据出错。",[307,321,309,322,325],{},[71,323,324],{},"最大回撤小，风险就低。","”历史短的话就不一定。把它当风险指标之前，先问问它是多少笔交易、多少个月得出来的。",[307,327,309,328,331],{},[71,329,330],{},"百分比回撤和金额回撤可以互相替代。","”$2,000 的账户和 $200,000 的账户各跌 30%，风险特征相同，感受却天差地别；但能在账户之间比较的，只有百分比。",[10,333,334,335,339],{},"想在实时账户页面上把最大回撤和其他指标放在一起看，请阅读",[14,336,338],{"href":337},"\u002Fguides\u002Freading-a-trading-account-dashboard","如何读懂交易账户控制台","。",{"title":36,"searchDepth":341,"depth":341,"links":342},2,[343,344,345,346,347],{"id":22,"depth":341,"text":22},{"id":127,"depth":341,"text":127},{"id":206,"depth":341,"text":206},{"id":266,"depth":341,"text":267},{"id":302,"depth":341,"text":302},"2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","最大回撤是账户有史以来从峰值到谷底的最深跌幅。本文介绍计算公式、回本对照表，以及数千个账户的真实分布。",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown",[356,357,358,359],"what-is-drawdown","what-is-position-sizing","what-is-a-verified-track-record","what-is-a-profit-factor",{"title":5,"description":349},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","最大回撤 (Maximum Drawdown)","H1pMHY5DcM__vxubkgaLVDhrp8FNU0EbYexdvdzrV1o",[365,638,823,1010],{"id":366,"title":367,"body":368,"category":52,"date":348,"description":628,"draft":350,"extension":351,"meta":629,"navigation":353,"path":630,"related":631,"seo":634,"stem":635,"term":636,"updated":348,"__hash__":637},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor.md","什么是盈利因子？公式、合理数值与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":369,"toc":621},[370,373,375,381,384,387,393,396,458,460,463,470,477,479,493,499,502,509,519,521,549,577,579,614],[10,371,372],{},"盈利因子就是总盈利除以总亏损：所有盈利交易赚的钱加起来，除以所有亏损交易亏的钱。盈利因子 1.50，意思是账户每亏 $1.00，就赚回 $1.50。低于 1.00，不管胜率多高，账户从结构上就注定亏钱。",[20,374,22],{"id":22},[27,376,379],{"className":377,"code":378,"language":32},[30],"盈利因子 = 总盈利 \u002F |总亏损|\n",[34,380,378],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,382,383],{},"注意这个公式没有考虑什么：账户交易了多久、用了多少资金、中途跌得有多深。",[10,385,386],{},"它也可以用胜率、平均盈利和平均亏损来写，这样写就能拿来诊断问题：",[27,388,391],{"className":389,"code":390,"language":32},[30],"盈利因子 = (胜率 × 平均盈利) \u002F ((1 − 胜率) × 平均亏损)\n",[34,392,390],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,394,395],{},"两个截然不同的系统，可能算出同一个数值。胜率 30%、盈利单平均是亏损单的四倍，结果是 1.71。胜率 80%、盈利单只有亏损单的一半，结果是 2.00。两者都能赚钱，但出问题的方式不同，做起来的感受也完全两样。",[41,397,398,408],{},[44,399,400],{},[47,401,402,405],{},[50,403,404],{},"盈利因子",[50,406,407],{},"解读",[63,409,410,418,426,434,442,450],{},[47,411,412,415],{},[68,413,414],{},"低于 1.00",[68,416,417],{},"亏钱，而且是结构性的，不是差一点",[47,419,420,423],{},[68,421,422],{},"1.00 – 1.10",[68,424,425],{},"还在噪声范围内，一周行情不好就没了",[47,427,428,431],{},[68,429,430],{},"1.10 – 1.30",[68,432,433],{},"优势很薄但真实存在，前提是样本够大",[47,435,436,439],{},[68,437,438],{},"1.30 – 2.00",[68,440,441],{},"策略有效",[47,443,444,447],{},[68,445,446],{},"2.00 – 3.00",[68,448,449],{},"很强。请核对交易笔数，以及成本是否算全",[47,451,452,455],{},[68,453,454],{},"高于 3.00",[68,456,457],{},"在长期历史里很少见：通常是样本太短、靠几笔超大盈利撑着，或者还有亏损单没平仓",[20,459,127],{"id":127},[10,461,462],{},"要回答“这个系统到底赚不赚钱”，盈利因子是最干净的单一指标。它也比胜率难包装得多，因为每一笔亏损都按全额计入分母。",[10,464,465,466,469],{},"但它不是风险指标。盈利因子不管顺序：一个账户一个月赚够全部利润、另外十一个月一直失血，和一个每周稳步上涨的账户，数值可以一模一样。所以要和",[14,467,139],{"href":468},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","一起看，否则只看到了终点，没看到过程。",[10,471,472,476],{},[14,473,475],{"href":474},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-backtesting","回测","给出的盈利因子同样要小心：优化器追求的就是把这个比值做到最大，所以回测里的高数值，往往反映的是拟合做得多好，而不是策略本身多好。",[20,478,206],{"id":206},[10,480,481,482,230,485,492],{},"以下数字只描述在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。截至 2026 年 8 月，有交易历史的已发布账户中，",[71,483,484],{},"盈利因子中位数为 1.28",[71,486,487,491],{},[14,488,490],{"href":489},"\u002Fguides\u002Fwin-rate-is-not-an-edge","胜率中位数","为 68.8%","。两个数字都是扣除成本后的：每笔交易先计入库存费和佣金，再判定是盈利单还是亏损单，所以 1.28 是净值，不是毛值。",[10,494,495],{},[217,496],{"alt":497,"src":498},"ShowMyTrades 公开账户的中位数：68.8% 的胜率与 1.28 的盈利因子并列","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fwin-rate-vs-payoff.svg",[10,500,501],{},"同一组数据的两个中位数：胜率看着很高，背后的优势却很薄。",[10,503,504,505,508],{},"要看的正是这两个数放在一起。中位数账户里，将近七成的交易以盈利平仓，可整体优势也只是每亏 $1.00 赚 $1.28。拿一个两项都正好处在中位数的账户，把公式倒推回去：它的平均盈利只有平均亏损的约 ",[71,506,507],{},"0.58 倍","。赢得多和赚得多是两回事，前者要容易制造得多：亏损单扛着不平，盈利单早早落袋，胜率就往上走，盈利因子却往下掉。",[10,510,511,512,515,516,518],{},"同一组账户的夏普比率中位数是 ",[71,513,514],{},"0.05","，中位数账户有 ",[71,517,244],{},"。样本这么小，盈利因子高于 3.00 并不能证明系统更强，只能说明样本还太少，最差的那笔交易还没出现。",[20,520,267],{"id":266},[10,522,270,523,526,527,529,530,111,533,111,536,111,539,111,542,277,545,548],{},[71,524,525],{},"高级统计","模块里都有",[71,528,404],{},"，旁边是能解释它的几个数字：",[71,531,532],{},"胜率",[71,534,535],{},"平均盈利",[71,537,538],{},"平均亏损",[71,540,541],{},"期望值",[71,543,544],{},"总交易数",[71,546,547],{},"夏普比率","。这六个数字合起来，能说清单一比值说不清的事。",[10,550,551,552,562,563,277,566,569,570,576],{},"有两个产品细节值得注意。第一，已经算进比值的成本会另外逐项列出：交易表格有",[71,553,554,555,561],{},"盈利（毛额）",[71,556,557,558,277],{},"列，",[71,559,560],{},"库存费","佣金","各占一列；高级统计还汇总了",[71,564,565],{},"佣金合计",[71,567,568],{},"已付库存费合计","，可以看出净值数字里扣掉了多少成本。在所有已发布账户中，这两项合计分别是佣金 $4,782,670、库存费 $862,547。第二，",[14,571,573],{"href":572},"\u002Fguides\u002Fcustom-analysis-and-filter-presets",[71,574,575],{},"自定义分析","可以先筛选（按日期范围、品种、魔术号、方向或手数），再对子集重算整个统计区块。用它可以检验：去掉表现最好的那个季度，或者去掉最赚钱的那个品种，盈利因子是否依然站得住。",[20,578,302],{"id":302},[304,580,581,592,602,608],{},[307,582,309,583,586,587,591],{},[71,584,585],{},"盈利因子高于 1，就说明我在赚钱。","”前提是成本已经算进比值。如果没有，一个毛值 1.05 的高频系统，",[14,588,590],{"href":589},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-cost-percentage","计入佣金和库存费之后","可能持平甚至亏损。",[307,593,309,594,597,598,601],{},[71,595,596],{},"盈利因子高，风险就低。","”它反映不了回撤、仓位大小和盈亏顺序。马丁格尔式逐级加仓的",[14,599,600],{"href":201},"仓位管理","方案，可以一直显示 4.00，直到哪天突然失灵。",[307,603,309,604,607],{},[71,605,606],{},"不同时间周期之间可以直接比。","”不能，它没有年化。剥头皮交易者 20,000 笔交易得出的 1.20，和波段交易者 60 笔交易得出的 1.20，说的不是一回事。",[307,609,309,610,613],{},[71,611,612],{},"未平仓的交易不影响它。","”会影响，恰恰因为它们不在里面。一直不平的浮动亏损完全不计入总亏损，在平仓之前会一直把比值抬高。",[10,615,616,617,339],{},"该长期追踪哪些指标、按什么顺序看，请参阅",[14,618,620],{"href":619},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftracking-trading-performance","交易表现追踪完全指南",{"title":36,"searchDepth":341,"depth":341,"links":622},[623,624,625,626,627],{"id":22,"depth":341,"text":22},{"id":127,"depth":341,"text":127},{"id":206,"depth":341,"text":206},{"id":266,"depth":341,"text":267},{"id":302,"depth":341,"text":302},"盈利因子是总盈利除以总亏损，低于 1.0 的账户注定亏损。本文给出各数值区间的解读，以及数千个账户的中位数 1.28。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor",[356,632,357,633],"what-is-maximum-drawdown","what-is-backtesting",{"title":367,"description":628},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","盈利因子 (Profit Factor)","OLz2UdKZBQ-s3NM0RQISYNe6Jrhtmy0tM84z39S0Thk",{"id":639,"title":640,"body":641,"category":812,"date":348,"description":813,"draft":350,"extension":351,"meta":814,"navigation":353,"path":815,"related":816,"seo":819,"stem":820,"term":821,"updated":348,"__hash__":822},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record.md","什么是经验证的业绩记录？定义与核查",{"type":7,"value":642,"toc":805},[643,646,648,671,677,680,686,689,691,701,704,706,716,731,733,755,766,768,798],[10,644,645],{},"经验证的业绩记录，是通过只读连接直接从经纪商持续传来的交易结果记录，整条链路上没有任何一个环节能让发布者编辑、删除或调整顺序。这正是“说法”和“证据”的区别。这个词里其实藏着两个不同的问题，关于验证的争论，大多源于把两者混为一谈。",[20,647,22],{"id":22},[10,649,650,651,655,656,660,661,665,666,670],{},"第一个问题：数据是不是真的。这由连接本身来回答：通道只能读取账户，永远不能写入，而且不间断地运行，所以记录是持续积累起来的，而不是挑个方便的时候导出来的。在 ShowMyTrades 上，这条通道是以下四种之一：安装在 MetaTrader 4 或 5 中的 EA（智能交易系统）、使用 ",[14,652,654],{"href":653},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-mt4-investor-password","MT4 投资者密码","的直接连接、",[14,657,659],{"href":658},"\u002Fctrader-account-tracking","cTrader OAuth2 授权","，或 ",[14,662,664],{"href":663},"\u002Ftradelocker-tracking","TradeLocker REST API","。这四种方式都不能下单、改单或平仓。只读凭据是行业里实现这一点的通用机制，",[14,667,669],{"href":668},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-myfxbook","Myfxbook"," 等第三方追踪工具也是这样连接 MetaTrader 账户的。",[27,672,675],{"className":673,"code":674,"language":32},[30],"经纪商服务器 → 只读连接 → ShowMyTrades → 公开页面\n　　　　　　   整条链路中没有任何可编辑的环节\n",[34,676,674],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,678,679],{},"第二个问题：发布页面的人是不是账户的主人。只读数据流能证明交易确实存在，却证明不了交易是谁的，因为投资者密码可以交给任何人。要补上这个缺口，得做一件只有拥有交易权限的人才能做的事：以一个不可能成交的价格挂一笔单，并在注释栏里填上发布者的用户 ID。在 cTrader 上，一次 OAuth 授权就能同时回答这两个问题。",[10,681,682],{},[217,683],{"alt":684,"src":685},"“业绩记录已验证”回答的是：数据是否通过一条无法下单、改单或平仓的通道从经纪商传来；“交易权限已验证”回答的是：发布者是否控制着这个账户","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Ftwo-badges.svg",[10,687,688],{},"一份记录可能过了一关、没过另一关，所以两者分开统计。",[20,690,127],{"id":127},[10,692,693,694,277,696,700],{},"连接之后的一切都只是算术。只要输入能被改动，盈利因子、",[14,695,73],{"href":16},[14,697,699],{"href":698},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve","净值曲线","就全是摆设，页面做得再详细也没用。截图、PDF 对账单和电子表格有着同一个毛病：它们都出自请您信任它们的那个人之手。",[10,702,703],{},"连续性和只读访问同样重要。可以暂停、再恢复的记录，能让一个糟糕的月份凭空消失。数据流连续时，中断本身就会在页面上显示出来，这本身就是信息，而不是信息的缺失。",[20,705,206],{"id":206},[10,707,708,709,230,712,715],{},"验证要自己主动去做，还得花点功夫，数字也说明了这一点。截至 2026 年 8 月，在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的 1 万+ 个账户中，只有 ",[71,710,711],{},"65 个带有“业绩记录已验证”",[71,713,714],{},"264 个带有“交易权限已验证”","。证明所有权的账户比证明数据来源的多，因为挂一笔单，比去经纪商那里改密码容易。",[10,717,718,719,723,724,727,728,730],{},"已验证不等于表现好。在有交易历史的公开账户中，",[14,720,722],{"href":721},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","时间加权收益率","的中位数为 ",[71,725,726],{},"+3.2%","，63.0% 为正，最深回撤的中位数为 ",[71,729,212],{},"，还有 17.6% 的账户曾经亏掉峰值的一半以上。这个分布来自 15,436,464 笔已同步交易，这才是诚实的记录该有的样子，和广告里的那些完全不同。",[20,732,267],{"id":266},[10,734,735,736,739,740,277,743,746,747,750,751,754],{},"两枚徽章都在每个账户页面头部的",[71,737,738],{},"认证","组里，位于各项数字上方：",[71,741,742],{},"业绩记录",[71,744,745],{},"交易权限","，获得时显示绿色，未获得时显示灰色，每枚都有提示框，说明它在该平台上认证的是什么。同一组里还会显示",[71,748,749],{},"真实账户","或",[71,752,753],{},"模拟账户","，这是根据经纪商服务器判断的，不是用户自己填的。",[10,756,757,758,761,762,765],{},"验证在账户设置中管理，",[71,759,760],{},"投资者密码（可选）"," 字段就在那里：清空它并保存，业绩记录徽章当即变灰。",[71,763,764],{},"完整控制台","小组件也会显示这两枚徽章，因为它嵌入了账户头部，所以放在别人网站上的小组件，也带着自己的数据来源。",[20,767,302],{"id":302},[304,769,770,780,786,792],{},[307,771,772,339,775,779],{},[71,773,774],{},"指向某个追踪网站的链接，不等于验证",[14,776,778],{"href":777},"\u002Fguides\u002Fthird-party-verification-explained","任何平台都能托管未经验证的账户","。要看页面上的徽章，而不是网址里的域名。",[307,781,782,785],{},[71,783,784],{},"“业绩记录已验证”证明不了所有权","。它证明的是交易真实存在。转卖别人投资者密码的人，同样能提供真实的数据流，只是那些交易不是他自己的。",[307,787,788,791],{},[71,789,790],{},"已验证不等于盈利","。徽章只认证数据来源，别的一概不管。之后还得把增长率和回撤放在一起看。",[307,793,794,797],{},[71,795,796],{},"经验证的模拟账户，仍然是模拟账户","。偏偏在实盘成交最吃亏的那些时候，模拟成交显得过于乐观。",[10,799,800,801,339],{},"两枚徽章的验证步骤详解：",[14,802,804],{"href":803},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-to-verify-your-account","如何验证您的交易账户",{"title":36,"searchDepth":341,"depth":341,"links":806},[807,808,809,810,811],{"id":22,"depth":341,"text":22},{"id":127,"depth":341,"text":127},{"id":206,"depth":341,"text":206},{"id":266,"depth":341,"text":267},{"id":302,"depth":341,"text":302},"验证","经验证的业绩记录，是通过只读连接直接从经纪商持续获取的业绩数据，发布者无法改动其中任何内容。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record",[817,818,356],"what-is-an-mt4-investor-password","what-is-myfxbook",{"title":640,"description":813},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","经验证的业绩记录 (Verified Track Record)","XXw0XywuXXvGTGPkURwZXnd-tURxBRrjPXvj-rr4h2k",{"id":824,"title":825,"body":826,"category":52,"date":348,"description":1001,"draft":350,"extension":351,"meta":1002,"navigation":353,"path":1003,"related":1004,"seo":1006,"stem":1007,"term":1008,"updated":348,"__hash__":1009},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown.md","什么是回撤？定义、公式与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":827,"toc":994},[828,831,833,836,842,845,848,879,881,884,890,893,896,904,906,911,923,926,928,945,958,960,989],[10,829,830],{},"回撤是账户价值从此前的峰值跌到之后低点的幅度，用峰值的百分比表示。它衡量的是账户离自己最好的时候跌了多少，而不是某一笔交易亏了多少。回撤是累积的，所以 20% 的回撤，可能来自四十笔小亏损，也可能来自一次巨亏。",[20,832,22],{"id":22},[10,834,835],{},"每个账户都有一条随时更新的高水位线，也就是它曾经达到的最高价值。回撤就是任意时刻账户低于这条线的距离。",[27,837,840],{"className":838,"code":839,"language":32},[30],"回撤 % = (峰值 − 当前值) \u002F 峰值 × 100\n",[34,841,839],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,843,844],{},"这条线只升不降。账户一创新高，高水位线就移到新高，回撤归零。在那之前，只要低于峰值，每一天都算在回撤中，不管账户是在下跌还是在横盘磨蹭。",[10,846,847],{},"这个数字到底是什么意思，要看三组区分：",[304,849,850,860,866],{},[307,851,852,855,856,859],{},[71,853,854],{},"相对回撤与绝对回撤","。相对回撤就是上面的百分比。MetaTrader 报告的绝对回撤，是账户低于",[71,857,858],{},"初始入金","的金额，这是完全不同的数字：一个当前比峰值低 40% 的账户，绝对回撤可能显示为 0%。",[307,861,862,865],{},[71,863,864],{},"净值回撤与余额回撤","。净值回撤包含持仓的浮动亏损。余额回撤只看已平仓交易，所以一笔亏损只要不兑现，就永远不会出现在里面。",[307,867,868,871,872,874,875,878],{},[71,869,870],{},"当前回撤与最大回撤","。当前回撤是账户今天的位置。历史上最差的那一次是",[14,873,139],{"href":468},"，大多数",[14,876,742],{"href":877},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-track-record","引用的就是它。",[20,880,127],{"id":127},[10,882,883],{},"一个策略值不值得投资，回撤是硬约束，因为亏损和盈利的复利效果并不对称。跌 20%，要涨 25% 才能回本；跌 50%，要涨 100%。",[10,885,886],{},[217,887],{"alt":888,"src":889},"亏损 10% 需要 11.1% 的盈利才能弥补，25% 需要 33.3%，50% 需要 100%，70% 需要 233%","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Frecovery-asymmetry.svg",[10,891,892],{},"跌幅一旦超过 50%，回本所需的涨幅就比亏损本身还大。",[10,894,895],{},"让人离开市场的，也是这个数字。几乎没有人会在急速暴跌中放弃，那时心里还抱着希望。人们是在不温不火的回升熬到第九个月时放弃的。深度只占一半，另一半是持续时间，而它在收益图上根本看不出来。",[10,897,898,899,277,901,903],{},"另外，回撤主要取决于",[14,900,600],{"href":201},[14,902,123],{"href":122},"纪律，远远超过入场质量。两位交易者信号完全一样、手数不同，胜率会一模一样，生存能力却天差地别。",[20,905,206],{"id":206},[10,907,908,909,339],{},"以下数字只描述在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的账户，并不是对全体交易者的调查。截至 2026 年 8 月，根据 15,436,464 笔已同步交易，有交易历史的已发布账户，历史最深回撤中位数为 ",[71,910,212],{},[10,912,913,914,916,917,230,919,922],{},"再看同一批账户赚了多少。",[14,915,722],{"href":721},"中位数为 ",[71,918,726],{},[71,920,921],{},"63.0%"," 的账户长期为正。也就是说，处在中位数的账户，一路上回吐的幅度，大约是最终收益的三倍：承受的风险比得到的结果大，而且大出的是倍数，不是一星半点。",[10,924,925],{},"让回撤数字有意义的，是这个比值，而不是回撤本身有多深。宣称收益很高、回撤却只有百分之二三的账户并非不可能，但它处在这个分布的最边缘，这种极端情况要靠账户页面上的其余内容来证明。",[20,927,267],{"id":266},[10,929,930,931,933,934,936,937,939,940,944],{},"在每个已发布账户页面上，",[71,932,273],{},"面板在",[71,935,283],{}," 下方连续两行显示两个数字：",[71,938,73],{},"，基于净值计算，包含持仓的浮动亏损；以及",[14,941,942],{"href":103},[71,943,89],{},"，只基于已平仓结果。两者都是历史最大值，不是今天的读数，而且都来自经纪商的数据，不是账户所有者自己填的。",[10,946,947,948,950,951,954,955,957],{},"图表模块有一个",[71,949,73],{},"视图，用柱状图画出账户整个生命周期的每日回撤。下跌",[71,952,953],{},"持续了多久","，在这里直接就能看出来，不用靠推测，这是任何一个醒目的百分比都表达不了的。",[14,956,298],{"href":297},"可以用您自己的余额算出回本需要多少涨幅。",[20,959,302],{"id":302},[304,961,962,968,974,983],{},[307,963,309,964,967],{},[71,965,966],{},"回撤就是我亏得最多的那一笔。","”不是。它是一条从峰值到谷底的累积路径，中间可能有几百笔交易，盈利单也包括在内。",[307,969,309,970,973],{},[71,971,972],{},"回本之后，我的回撤又回到零了。","”当前回撤是这样。最大回撤按设计永远不会降：这样，一个好季度就抹不掉一个坏季度。",[307,975,309,976,979,980,339],{},[71,977,978],{},"回撤低，说明风险低。","”新账户回撤低，通常只说明还没经受考验。这里已发布账户的已平仓交易数中位数是 171 笔；不到几百笔时，",[14,981,982],{"href":256},"回撤小反映的是样本量，而不是风险特征",[307,984,309,985,988],{},[71,986,987],{},"余额回撤才是真正的回撤。","”它只是更好看的那个。网格和摊平加仓类系统正是靠死扛亏损单不平，才让余额回撤一直很小。",[10,990,991,992,339],{},"回撤如何和账户页面上的其他数字对照着看，请参阅",[14,993,338],{"href":337},{"title":36,"searchDepth":341,"depth":341,"links":995},[996,997,998,999,1000],{"id":22,"depth":341,"text":22},{"id":127,"depth":341,"text":127},{"id":206,"depth":341,"text":206},{"id":266,"depth":341,"text":267},{"id":302,"depth":341,"text":302},"回撤是账户价值从峰值到谷底的跌幅，用百分比表示。本文介绍公式、它为什么是累积的，以及数千个真实交易账户的数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown",[632,357,1005,359],"what-is-a-stop-loss",{"title":825,"description":1001},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","回撤 (Drawdown)","tI3oDk8FJPfBVP8sboa1RV13uVvVqDQQ3BpyQp8BpuI",{"id":1011,"title":1012,"body":1013,"category":1208,"date":348,"description":1209,"draft":350,"extension":351,"meta":1210,"navigation":353,"path":1211,"related":1212,"seo":1214,"stem":1215,"term":1216,"updated":348,"__hash__":1217},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing.md","什么是仓位管理？公式与手数计算",{"type":7,"value":1014,"toc":1201},[1015,1021,1023,1026,1032,1035,1041,1047,1050,1070,1076,1079,1081,1084,1091,1093,1107,1110,1124,1126,1133,1161,1163,1194],[10,1016,1017,1018,1020],{},"仓位管理（position sizing）决定一笔交易开多大，依据是这笔交易失败时您愿意亏掉账户的多少。它用两个数把风险百分比换算成手数：到止损的距离，以及这个手数下一个点值多少钱。账户的",[14,1019,73],{"href":16},"特征就由这一个变量决定，而且它是在交易前选定的，不是交易后才发现的。",[20,1022,22],{"id":22},[10,1024,1025],{},"分三步，按顺序来。",[27,1027,1030],{"className":1028,"code":1029,"language":32},[30],"1. 风险金额   = 账户余额 × 风险 %\n2. 点值　　   = 合约规模 × 以报价货币计的一个点 × 换算为账户货币的汇率\n3. 仓位大小   = 风险金额 \u002F (止损距离点数 × 每手点值)\n",[34,1031,1029],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,1033,1034],{},"举个例子：$10,000 的账户，每笔交易风险 1%，EUR\u002FUSD 止损 50 点，一标准手每点 $10：",[27,1036,1039],{"className":1037,"code":1038,"language":32},[30],"风险金额   = 10,000 × 0.01      = $100\n仓位大小   = 100 \u002F (50 × 10)    = 0.20 手\n",[34,1040,1038],{"__ignoreMap":36},[10,1042,1043,1044,1046],{},"止损放宽到 100 点，同样 $100 的风险就只能开 0.10 手。风险不变，手数跟着调整。整个思路就在这种反向关系里，也正因为如此，仓位管理和",[14,1045,123],{"href":122},"位置不能分开决定。",[10,1048,1049],{},"实践中最常用的有三种方法：",[304,1051,1052,1058,1064],{},[307,1053,1054,1057],{},[71,1055,1056],{},"固定手数","。不管止损多远、余额多少，永远 0.10 手。简单，但止损和余额一变，单笔风险就跟着漂移。",[307,1059,1060,1063],{},[71,1061,1062],{},"百分比风险（固定比例）","。也就是上面的公式。风险始终与账户成比例，账户缩水时，按金额计的亏损也随之变小，回本在算术上才有可能。",[307,1065,1066,1069],{},[71,1067,1068],{},"马丁格尔递增","。亏损后加大手数，想把亏损扳回来。盈利频繁而且每笔都小，净值曲线漂亮得无可挑剔，但结果的分布有一条很厚的左尾，而且会一下子全部兑现。",[10,1071,1072],{},[217,1073],{"alt":1074,"src":1075},"每次亏损后手数加倍，对比按净值固定比例下单：胜率相同，市场相同，结局相反","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Flot-progression.svg",[10,1077,1078],{},"一个账户用的是哪一种，光看手数就能看出来。",[20,1080,127],{"id":127},[10,1082,1083],{},"入场决定您能不能赢，仓位管理决定您还能不能留下来做下一笔。两个交易者用同样的信号、同样的止损，胜率一模一样，账户却天差地别，因为一个每笔只冒 0.5% 的风险，另一个冒 8%。",[10,1085,1086,1090],{},[14,1087,1089],{"href":1088},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-leverage","杠杆","真正造成伤害，也是通过仓位管理。高杠杆本身不是风险，只是允许您去冒险。风险来自用这份许可开出的仓位：按它的止损距离，一笔亏损大到账户连亏两次都扛不住。",[20,1092,206],{"id":206},[10,1094,1095,1096,1099,1100,230,1103,1106],{},"仓位管理会在回撤的尾部留下痕迹。在 ShowMyTrades 上有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月；统计对象是在本站公开的账户，并不代表所有交易者），",[71,1097,1098],{},"38.2%"," 曾",[14,1101,1102],{"href":468},"回撤超过 20%",[71,1104,1105],{},"17.6%"," 亏掉了峰值的一半以上。",[10,1108,1109],{},"规模定得合理的固定比例账户，很少会落到最后这一档。按每笔 1% 的风险亏掉 50%，大约要连亏 69 次。落在这条尾部里的账户，一般另有原因：亏损后不断加码，或者定手数时根本没考虑止损。",[10,1111,1112,1113,230,1116,1119,1120,1123],{},"再看看仓位大小是谁定的：这些账户自动交易占比的中位数为 ",[71,1114,1115],{},"99%",[71,1117,1118],{},"53.9%"," 的账户自动化程度超过 90%，低于 10% 的则有 ",[71,1121,1122],{},"42.2%","。在一半以上的已发布账户上，仓位大小只是 EA 设置里的一行，设好一次，余额怎么变都不再调整。",[20,1125,267],{"id":266},[10,1127,1128,1132],{},[14,1129,1131],{"href":1130},"\u002Ftools\u002Fposition-size-calculator","仓位计算器","用实时价格、以您的账户货币套用上面的公式，风险可以按百分比或固定金额设定，止损可以用价格或点数表示。",[10,1134,1135,1136,1139,1140,1143,1144,1146,1147,1150,1151,1153,1154,1160],{},"在已发布账户的页面上，仓位管理可以实际核查，不必凭空猜测。",[71,1137,1138],{},"交易表格","有一列",[71,1141,1142],{},"交易量","，列出每笔交易的手数，每亏一次就加一级的手数一眼就能看出来。",[71,1145,575],{},"提供",[71,1148,1149],{},"手数","的最小\u002F最大筛选：把下限设在账户正常手数之上，看看剩下的交易是不是都紧跟在亏损之后出现，这就是马丁格尔的特征。",[71,1152,525],{},"模块里的",[14,1155,1157],{"href":1156},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftrading-volume-analysis",[71,1158,1159],{},"总手数","给出汇总值；所有已发布账户累计交易了 1,724,575 手。",[20,1162,302],{"id":302},[304,1164,1165,1171,1182,1188],{},[307,1166,309,1167,1170],{},[71,1168,1169],{},"风险 2%，就是动用账户的 2%。","”不是。2% 是止损被触发时的亏损。仓位占用的保证金是另一个完全不同的数字，由杠杆决定。",[307,1172,309,1173,1176,1177,1181],{},[71,1174,1175],{},"我每笔只冒 1% 的风险，所以最坏也就亏 1%。","”只有同时只开一个仓位时才成立。",[14,1178,1180],{"href":1179},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-correlation-risk","五个相关的仓位","各占 1%，其实是一笔换了装扮的 5% 交易，而相关的货币对偏偏在最伤人的时候同涨同跌。",[307,1183,309,1184,1187],{},[71,1185,1186],{},"不设止损，就没有风险要算。","”没有止损，仓位大小公式就没有分母：风险不是很小，而是根本无法定义，它的真实数值就是追加保证金通知。",[307,1189,309,1190,1193],{},[71,1191,1192],{},"复利就是不断加仓。","”固定比例的仓位管理是双向调整的。赢了加手数、亏了却不减，这不是复利，而是一个慢慢收紧的棘轮，把账户推向一场您定仓位时从未考虑过的回撤。",[10,1195,1196,1197,339],{},"全套风险与仓位管理工具，以及各自适用的场景，请参阅",[14,1198,1200],{"href":1199},"\u002Fguides\u002Fforex-calculators-guide","外汇计算器指南",{"title":36,"searchDepth":341,"depth":341,"links":1202},[1203,1204,1205,1206,1207],{"id":22,"depth":341,"text":22},{"id":127,"depth":341,"text":127},{"id":206,"depth":341,"text":206},{"id":266,"depth":341,"text":267},{"id":302,"depth":341,"text":302},"风险","仓位管理就是根据止损距离和点值，把风险百分比换算成手数。本文介绍公式、三种常见方法，以及仓位定错的代价。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing",[356,632,1005,1213],"what-is-leverage",{"title":1012,"description":1209},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理 (Position Sizing)","5hi2OmhGtFDhESyalituW-Nh51a9wIit5SKZxEMEQyk",[1219,1220],{"path":468},{"path":354},1793898068741]