[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1229},["ShallowReactive",2],{"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio":3,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio-related":331,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio-langs":1226},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":313,"date":314,"description":315,"draft":316,"extension":317,"meta":318,"navigation":319,"path":320,"related":321,"seo":326,"stem":327,"term":328,"updated":329,"__hash__":330},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio.md","什么是风险回报比？盈亏平衡对照表",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":305},"minimark",[9,19,23,34,37,43,111,114,117,120,123,136,139,159,170,185,189,215,251,261,264,298],[10,11,12,13,18],"p",{},"风险回报比（risk-reward ratio）是一笔交易可能赚到的和可能亏掉的之比，目标距离是止损距离的两倍时，写作 1:2。它首先是计划，其次才是结果：风险是到",[14,15,17],"a",{"href":16},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","止损","的距离，回报是到目标的距离。它真正的用处只有一个：确定您需要多高的胜率才能盈亏平衡。",[20,21,22],"h2",{"id":22},"工作原理",[24,25,30],"pre",{"className":26,"code":28,"language":29},[27],"language-text","风险回报比 = 每笔交易的回报 \u002F 每笔交易的风险\n","text",[31,32,28],"code",{"__ignoreMap":33},"",[10,35,36],{},"止损 $100、目标 $250，就是 1:2.5。这个比率可以直接换算成所需的胜率：",[24,38,41],{"className":39,"code":40,"language":29},[27],"盈亏平衡胜率 = 1 \u002F (1 + 风险回报比)\n",[31,42,40],{"__ignoreMap":33},[44,45,46,59],"table",{},[47,48,49],"thead",{},[50,51,52,56],"tr",{},[53,54,55],"th",{},"风险回报比",[53,57,58],{},"盈亏平衡胜率",[60,61,62,71,79,87,95,103],"tbody",{},[50,63,64,68],{},[65,66,67],"td",{},"1:0.5",[65,69,70],{},"66.7%",[50,72,73,76],{},[65,74,75],{},"1:1",[65,77,78],{},"50.0%",[50,80,81,84],{},[65,82,83],{},"1:1.5",[65,85,86],{},"40.0%",[50,88,89,92],{},[65,90,91],{},"1:2",[65,93,94],{},"33.3%",[50,96,97,100],{},[65,98,99],{},"1:3",[65,101,102],{},"25.0%",[50,104,105,108],{},[65,106,107],{},"1:5",[65,109,110],{},"16.7%",[10,112,113],{},"这张表正反都要看。1:3 时，四次错三次，账户依然持平。1:0.5 时（大多数“快速止盈”系统都是这个形态），三笔里要赢两笔，才开始赚到第一美元。",[10,115,116],{},"计划中的比率要做两处修正才算实在。成本要从回报里扣掉、再加到风险上，所以纸面上的 1:2，止损较紧时更接近 1:1.8。而且止损必须真的执行，这个比率才成立：跳空时被跳过的止损，代表的风险数字从来就不是真的。",[20,118,119],{"id":119},"为什么重要",[10,121,122],{},"风险回报比是交易者能直接掌控的变量。胜率很大程度上是市场给的；盈亏比在下单时就已确定，它决定了您有多少犯错的余地。",[10,124,125,126,130,131,135],{},"它还能暴露一种舒服却亏钱的习惯。盈利单早早平掉、亏损单留足空间，会让胜率上升，同时让盈亏比下降。屏幕上越来越好看，账户却越来越差。这一点从胜率上看不出来，在",[14,127,129],{"href":128},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy","期望值","和",[14,132,134],{"href":133},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","盈利因子","上却一目了然。",[20,137,138],{"id":138},"数据显示了什么",[10,140,141,142,146,147,150,151,154,155,158],{},"以下数据描述的是在 ShowMyTrades 上公开的账户，并不代表所有交易者。典型已发布账户的实际盈亏比恰恰是倒过来的。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月），",[143,144,145],"strong",{},"盈利因子中位数 1.28","、",[143,148,149],{},"胜率中位数 68.8%","，意味着平均盈利单约为平均亏损单的 ",[143,152,153],{},"0.58 倍","：盈亏比约为 ",[143,156,157],{},"1:0.58","，和通常讲的风险回报比正好颠倒。",[10,160,161,162,165,166,169],{},"这个盈亏比对应的盈亏平衡胜率是 ",[143,163,164],{},"63.3%","。中位账户的胜率为 68.8%，比一分钱都不赚的那条线只高出约 ",[143,167,168],{},"5.5 个百分点","。",[10,171,172,173,180,181,184],{},"全部余量就这么多。这就解释了，为什么十笔交易赢近七笔的账户，",[143,174,175,179],{},[14,176,178],{"href":177},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","时间加权收益率","的中位数只有 +3.2%","；也解释了为什么",[143,182,183],{},"最深回撤的中位数为 9.7%","，约为最终收益的三倍。盈亏比这么薄，胜率就得一直保持在 70% 附近，而一串再普通不过的亏损，就足以让它在一个季度里跌破 63.3%。",[20,186,188],{"id":187},"在-showmytrades-上的位置","在 ShowMyTrades 上的位置",[10,190,191,192,130,195,198,199,202,203,206,207,146,210,130,212,214],{},"虽然没有哪一行叫“风险回报比”，但每个已发布账户的页面上都有实际盈亏比：",[143,193,194],{},"平均盈利",[143,196,197],{},"平均亏损","并排放在",[143,200,201],{},"高级统计","模块的",[143,204,205],{},"交易","分组里，两者之比就是账户实际做到的盈亏比，而不是原本打算的那个。",[143,208,209],{},"胜率",[143,211,129],{},[143,213,134],{},"也在同一模块，随便拿一个账户，几秒钟就能把上面的盈亏平衡算一遍。",[10,216,217,218,221,222,130,224,227,228,146,231,237,238,242,243,246,247,250],{},"每笔交易计划中的比率，在",[143,219,220],{},"交易表格","里：",[143,223,17],{},[143,225,226],{},"止盈","两列显示止损和目标设在哪里，旁边还有",[143,229,230],{},"点数",[143,232,233,234,236],{},"盈利（毛额）",[143,235,130],{},"持续时间","。一个账户的止盈总是比止损近，等于事先就亮出了自己的盈亏比。如果账户主人选择了",[14,239,241],{"href":240},"\u002Fguides\u002Fpublic-profile-and-custom-slugs","在公开页面上隐藏这些列","，高级统计里的",[143,244,245],{},"最佳交易（点）"," 和",[143,248,249],{},"最差交易（点）"," 依然能框出分布的范围。",[10,252,253,254,260],{},"想检验一个盈亏比离开最有利的条件后还站不站得住，",[14,255,257],{"href":256},"\u002Fguides\u002Fcustom-analysis-and-filter-presets",[143,258,259],{},"自定义分析","侧边面板可以在筛选后的子集上重新计算平均盈利、平均亏损和期望值：只看一个品种、一个魔术号或一个方向。",[20,262,263],{"id":263},"常见误解",[265,266,267,275,281,292],"ul",{},[268,269,270,271,274],"li",{},"“",[143,272,273],{},"风险回报比越高越好。","”这是有代价的。目标越远，被触及的次数越少，所以 1:5 的胜率即使低于 17% 也没问题，可大多数交易者熬不住这样的过程。",[268,276,270,277,280],{},[143,278,279],{},"我的风险回报比是 1:3，因为我下单就是这么设的。","”那是计划中的比率。实际比率要看平均盈利和平均亏损，而手动平仓、部分平仓和滑点，每一次都会让它变。",[268,282,270,283,286,287,291],{},[143,284,285],{},"风险回报比衡量的是风险。","”它衡量的是单笔交易的形态。账户风险来自",[14,288,290],{"href":289},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理","和各笔持仓之间的相关性，与这个比率无关。",[268,293,270,294,297],{},[143,295,296],{},"亏钱的系统，把目标拉远就能救回来。","”前提是价格真能走到那里。没有依据就拉远目标，胜率会刚好降到让期望值原地不动的程度。",[10,299,300,301,169],{},"68.8% 与 1.28 之间差距背后的完整算术，以及如何在自己的账户上算一遍，请参阅",[14,302,304],{"href":303},"\u002Fguides\u002Fwin-rate-is-not-an-edge","为什么胜率并不是优势",{"title":33,"searchDepth":306,"depth":306,"links":307},2,[308,309,310,311,312],{"id":22,"depth":306,"text":22},{"id":119,"depth":306,"text":119},{"id":138,"depth":306,"text":138},{"id":187,"depth":306,"text":188},{"id":263,"depth":306,"text":263},"风险","2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","风险回报比是每冒一单位风险能换来多少回报，它决定了您需要多高的胜率才能盈亏平衡。本文附对照表、公式，以及 ShowMyTrades 公开账户的实际数据。",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio",[322,323,324,325],"what-is-expectancy","what-is-a-stop-loss","what-is-a-profit-factor","what-is-position-sizing",{"title":5,"description":315},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio","风险回报比 (Risk-Reward Ratio)","2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z","2c7Tn3WEKmW9Z79On7sD35TS9bptGebWuBCCCJ5xxkY",[332,600,802,1020],{"id":333,"title":334,"body":335,"category":588,"date":314,"description":589,"draft":316,"extension":317,"meta":590,"navigation":319,"path":591,"related":592,"seo":596,"stem":597,"term":598,"updated":314,"__hash__":599},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor.md","什么是盈利因子？公式、合理数值与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":336,"toc":581},[337,340,342,348,351,354,360,363,424,426,429,437,444,446,460,467,470,476,487,489,513,538,540,574],[10,338,339],{},"盈利因子就是总盈利除以总亏损：所有盈利交易赚的钱加起来，除以所有亏损交易亏的钱。盈利因子 1.50，意思是账户每亏 $1.00，就赚回 $1.50。低于 1.00，不管胜率多高，账户从结构上就注定亏钱。",[20,341,22],{"id":22},[24,343,346],{"className":344,"code":345,"language":29},[27],"盈利因子 = 总盈利 \u002F |总亏损|\n",[31,347,345],{"__ignoreMap":33},[10,349,350],{},"注意这个公式没有考虑什么：账户交易了多久、用了多少资金、中途跌得有多深。",[10,352,353],{},"它也可以用胜率、平均盈利和平均亏损来写，这样写就能拿来诊断问题：",[24,355,358],{"className":356,"code":357,"language":29},[27],"盈利因子 = (胜率 × 平均盈利) \u002F ((1 − 胜率) × 平均亏损)\n",[31,359,357],{"__ignoreMap":33},[10,361,362],{},"两个截然不同的系统，可能算出同一个数值。胜率 30%、盈利单平均是亏损单的四倍，结果是 1.71。胜率 80%、盈利单只有亏损单的一半，结果是 2.00。两者都能赚钱，但出问题的方式不同，做起来的感受也完全两样。",[44,364,365,374],{},[47,366,367],{},[50,368,369,371],{},[53,370,134],{},[53,372,373],{},"解读",[60,375,376,384,392,400,408,416],{},[50,377,378,381],{},[65,379,380],{},"低于 1.00",[65,382,383],{},"亏钱，而且是结构性的，不是差一点",[50,385,386,389],{},[65,387,388],{},"1.00 – 1.10",[65,390,391],{},"还在噪声范围内，一周行情不好就没了",[50,393,394,397],{},[65,395,396],{},"1.10 – 1.30",[65,398,399],{},"优势很薄但真实存在，前提是样本够大",[50,401,402,405],{},[65,403,404],{},"1.30 – 2.00",[65,406,407],{},"策略有效",[50,409,410,413],{},[65,411,412],{},"2.00 – 3.00",[65,414,415],{},"很强。请核对交易笔数，以及成本是否算全",[50,417,418,421],{},[65,419,420],{},"高于 3.00",[65,422,423],{},"在长期历史里很少见：通常是样本太短、靠几笔超大盈利撑着，或者还有亏损单没平仓",[20,425,119],{"id":119},[10,427,428],{},"要回答“这个系统到底赚不赚钱”，盈利因子是最干净的单一指标。它也比胜率难包装得多，因为每一笔亏损都按全额计入分母。",[10,430,431,432,436],{},"但它不是风险指标。盈利因子不管顺序：一个账户一个月赚够全部利润、另外十一个月一直失血，和一个每周稳步上涨的账户，数值可以一模一样。所以要和",[14,433,435],{"href":434},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","最大回撤","一起看，否则只看到了终点，没看到过程。",[10,438,439,443],{},[14,440,442],{"href":441},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-backtesting","回测","给出的盈利因子同样要小心：优化器追求的就是把这个比值做到最大，所以回测里的高数值，往往反映的是拟合做得多好，而不是策略本身多好。",[20,445,138],{"id":138},[10,447,448,449,452,453,459],{},"以下数字只描述在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。截至 2026 年 8 月，有交易历史的已发布账户中，",[143,450,451],{},"盈利因子中位数为 1.28","，",[143,454,455,458],{},[14,456,457],{"href":303},"胜率中位数","为 68.8%","。两个数字都是扣除成本后的：每笔交易先计入库存费和佣金，再判定是盈利单还是亏损单，所以 1.28 是净值，不是毛值。",[10,461,462],{},[463,464],"img",{"alt":465,"src":466},"ShowMyTrades 公开账户的中位数：68.8% 的胜率与 1.28 的盈利因子并列","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fwin-rate-vs-payoff.svg",[10,468,469],{},"同一组数据的两个中位数：胜率看着很高，背后的优势却很薄。",[10,471,472,473,475],{},"要看的正是这两个数放在一起。中位数账户里，将近七成的交易以盈利平仓，可整体优势也只是每亏 $1.00 赚 $1.28。拿一个两项都正好处在中位数的账户，把公式倒推回去：它的平均盈利只有平均亏损的约 ",[143,474,153],{},"。赢得多和赚得多是两回事，前者要容易制造得多：亏损单扛着不平，盈利单早早落袋，胜率就往上走，盈利因子却往下掉。",[10,477,478,479,482,483,486],{},"同一组账户的夏普比率中位数是 ",[143,480,481],{},"0.05","，中位数账户有 ",[143,484,485],{},"171 笔已平仓交易","。样本这么小，盈利因子高于 3.00 并不能证明系统更强，只能说明样本还太少，最差的那笔交易还没出现。",[20,488,188],{"id":187},[10,490,491,492,494,495,497,498,146,500,146,502,146,504,146,506,130,509,512],{},"每个已发布账户页面的",[143,493,201],{},"模块里都有",[143,496,134],{},"，旁边是能解释它的几个数字：",[143,499,209],{},[143,501,194],{},[143,503,197],{},[143,505,129],{},[143,507,508],{},"总交易数",[143,510,511],{},"夏普比率","。这六个数字合起来，能说清单一比值说不清的事。",[10,514,515,516,525,526,130,529,532,533,537],{},"有两个产品细节值得注意。第一，已经算进比值的成本会另外逐项列出：交易表格有",[143,517,233,518,524],{},[143,519,520,521,130],{},"列，",[143,522,523],{},"库存费","佣金","各占一列；高级统计还汇总了",[143,527,528],{},"佣金合计",[143,530,531],{},"已付库存费合计","，可以看出净值数字里扣掉了多少成本。在所有已发布账户中，这两项合计分别是佣金 $4,782,670、库存费 $862,547。第二，",[14,534,535],{"href":256},[143,536,259],{},"可以先筛选（按日期范围、品种、魔术号、方向或手数），再对子集重算整个统计区块。用它可以检验：去掉表现最好的那个季度，或者去掉最赚钱的那个品种，盈利因子是否依然站得住。",[20,539,263],{"id":263},[265,541,542,553,562,568],{},[268,543,270,544,547,548,552],{},[143,545,546],{},"盈利因子高于 1，就说明我在赚钱。","”前提是成本已经算进比值。如果没有，一个毛值 1.05 的高频系统，",[14,549,551],{"href":550},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-cost-percentage","计入佣金和库存费之后","可能持平甚至亏损。",[268,554,270,555,558,559,561],{},[143,556,557],{},"盈利因子高，风险就低。","”它反映不了回撤、仓位大小和盈亏顺序。马丁格尔式逐级加仓的",[14,560,290],{"href":289},"方案，可以一直显示 4.00，直到哪天突然失灵。",[268,563,270,564,567],{},[143,565,566],{},"不同时间周期之间可以直接比。","”不能，它没有年化。剥头皮交易者 20,000 笔交易得出的 1.20，和波段交易者 60 笔交易得出的 1.20，说的不是一回事。",[268,569,270,570,573],{},[143,571,572],{},"未平仓的交易不影响它。","”会影响，恰恰因为它们不在里面。一直不平的浮动亏损完全不计入总亏损，在平仓之前会一直把比值抬高。",[10,575,576,577,169],{},"该长期追踪哪些指标、按什么顺序看，请参阅",[14,578,580],{"href":579},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftracking-trading-performance","交易表现追踪完全指南",{"title":33,"searchDepth":306,"depth":306,"links":582},[583,584,585,586,587],{"id":22,"depth":306,"text":22},{"id":119,"depth":306,"text":119},{"id":138,"depth":306,"text":138},{"id":187,"depth":306,"text":188},{"id":263,"depth":306,"text":263},"指标","盈利因子是总盈利除以总亏损，低于 1.0 的账户注定亏损。本文给出各数值区间的解读，以及数千个账户的中位数 1.28。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor",[593,594,325,595],"what-is-drawdown","what-is-maximum-drawdown","what-is-backtesting",{"title":334,"description":589},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","盈利因子 (Profit Factor)","OLz2UdKZBQ-s3NM0RQISYNe6Jrhtmy0tM84z39S0Thk",{"id":601,"title":602,"body":603,"category":313,"date":314,"description":792,"draft":316,"extension":317,"meta":793,"navigation":319,"path":794,"related":795,"seo":797,"stem":798,"term":799,"updated":800,"__hash__":801},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss.md","什么是止损？类型、局限与真实数字",{"type":7,"value":604,"toc":785},[605,608,610,613,639,642,648,656,658,666,677,679,685,690,693,696,703,706,708,749,751,779],[10,606,607],{},"止损（stop loss）是事先挂好的订单，价格到了指定位置就平仓，给这笔交易的亏损封顶。这个决定在开仓之前就已做出，交给经纪商的服务器执行，意义全在于此：离场不必留到您最不愿意离场的那一刻再决定。它封顶的是意图，而不是结果：实际成交价可能比止损位更差。",[20,609,22],{"id":22},[10,611,612],{},"实际在用的止损，几乎都可以归入以下四种。",[265,614,615,621,627,633],{},[268,616,617,620],{},[143,618,619],{},"固定止损","。入场时设好的价位，保存在经纪商的服务器上。停电、终端崩溃、网络断线都不影响它，因为它根本不在您的电脑上。",[268,622,623,626],{},[143,624,625],{},"追踪止损（Trailing Stop）","。价格朝盈利方向走时跟着移动，绝不往回退。它能锁住收益，可在震荡行情中也会把盈利单变成保本单。MetaTrader 内置的追踪止损由终端管理，平台开着才有效，所以 EA 一般改为修改服务器端的止损来实现追踪。",[268,628,629,632],{},[143,630,631],{},"基于波动率的止损","。止损距离按当前的波动幅度来定，通常取 ATR 的倍数，而不是凑个整数。同样是 20 点止损，放在 EUR\u002FUSD 上和放在黄金上，风险完全不同。",[268,634,635,638],{},[143,636,637],{},"时间止损","。不管价格如何，持仓满 N 小时或 N 根 K 线就离场。用的人少，价值被低估了。",[10,640,641],{},"先有止损，再定仓位大小，顺序不能反过来：",[24,643,646],{"className":644,"code":645,"language":29},[27],"仓位大小 = (净值 × 风险 %) ÷ (止损距离点数 × 点值)\n",[31,647,645],{"__ignoreMap":33},[10,649,650,651,655],{},"先定手数，再去找一个保证金扛得住的止损，这是账户出现无底亏损最常见的原因。",[14,652,654],{"href":653},"\u002Ftools\u002Fposition-size-calculator","仓位计算器","会按正确的顺序帮您算。",[20,657,119],{"id":119},[10,659,660,661,665],{},"止损是触发条件，不是价格保证。价格一碰到止损位，订单就变成市价单，按下一个能成交的价格成交。遇到跳空（周一开盘、利率决议出人意料、2015 年 1 月的瑞士法郎），这个价格可能离止损位很远。两者的差额就是",[14,662,664],{"href":663},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-slippage","滑点","，而滑点没有上限。只有部分经纪商收费提供的保证止损，才会按设定价格成交。",[10,667,668,669,671,672,676],{},"更深一层的作用在于约束行为。没有事先定好的离场点，要不要平掉亏损单，就得在拿着它的时候决定，而这恰恰是最糟糕的时刻。后面的一切，包括",[14,670,134],{"href":133},"、回撤，乃至会不会收到",[14,673,675],{"href":674},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-margin-call","追加保证金通知","，都在那一刻定下了。",[20,678,138],{"id":138},[10,680,681,682,684],{},"在 ShowMyTrades 上有交易历史的公开账户中（2026 年 8 月），",[14,683,457],{"href":303},"为 68.8%，盈利因子中位数为 1.28。统计对象是在本站公开的账户，并不代表全体交易者。",[10,686,687],{},[463,688],{"alt":689,"src":466},"ShowMyTrades 公开账户中，胜率中位数 68.8% 与盈利因子中位数 1.28 的对比",[10,691,692],{},"赢得多、赚得少，正是事先定好离场点所要打破的模式。",[10,694,695],{},"这两个数字要放在一起看，分开看都显得漂亮。将近七成的交易以盈利收场，可总盈利只有总亏损的 1.28 倍。两者同时成立，只能是亏损单明显比盈利单大：胜率 68.8%、盈利因子 1.28，意味着平均亏损约为平均盈利的 1.7 倍。（这是两个分布各自的中位数，只作示意，并非某个账户的实测值，但方向毫无疑问。）",[10,697,698,699,702],{},"这就是盈利早早落袋、亏损放任不管的典型特征，也正是止损要防止的。0.05 的",[14,700,511],{"href":701},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-the-sharpe-ratio","中位数再次印证了这一点：每承担一单位波动，收益只比零高一点。中位数账户平仓 171 笔交易，样本并不单薄。",[10,704,705],{},"这也不是手动操作造成的。自动交易占比的中位数为 99%，53.9% 的账户自动化程度超过 90%。对这些账户来说，没有止损就是少写了一行代码，而系统做的每一笔交易都一模一样地缺着它。",[20,707,188],{"id":187},[265,709,710,718,726,734,739],{},[268,711,712,714,715,717],{},[143,713,220],{},"里有一列",[143,716,17],{},"（S\u002FL），显示每个仓位记录的止损价；如果交易确实是被止损平掉的，这个价格会标红。几百行的止损列都是空的，说明这个账户交易时从不预设离场点。",[268,719,720,721,130,723,725],{},"高级统计里的",[143,722,194],{},[143,724,197],{},"。平均亏损如果是平均盈利的好几倍，要么根本没设止损，要么止损被挪过。",[268,727,728,733],{},[143,729,730,731,249],{},"最差交易（盈亏）",[143,732,130],{},"。不管描述里怎么说，账户吃过的最大单笔亏损，才是它真正的止损。",[268,735,736,738],{},[143,737,129],{},"以点数和账户货币显示，是盈亏合在一起后每笔交易的平均结果：这个数字，高胜率美化不了。",[268,740,741,742,748],{},"同一区块里的",[14,743,745],{"href":744},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-average-trade-length",[143,746,747],{},"平均持仓时间","暴露出这种不对称：亏损单一拿就是几天，盈利单几分钟就走。",[20,750,263],{"id":263},[265,752,753,759,767,773],{},[268,754,270,755,758],{},[143,756,757],{},"止损保证了我的最大亏损。","”它管得住触发点，管不住成交价。遇到跳空或订单簿稀薄，成交会更差，有时差得多。",[268,760,270,761,764,765,169],{},[143,762,763],{},"止损越宽越安全。","”手数不变，止损越宽，亏损就越大。距离和规模是同一个决定，不是两个：参见",[14,766,290],{"href":289},[268,768,270,769,772],{},[143,770,771],{},"挪动止损是给交易留点空间。","”把止损往远离价格的方向挪，事先确定的亏损就变成了没有边界的亏损。上面平均亏损和平均盈利之间的差距，正是这一个习惯造成的。",[268,774,270,775,778],{},[143,776,777],{},"我的胜率够高，用不着止损。","”恰恰相反。这里的中位数账户胜率已经有 68.8%，盈利因子却还是只有 1.28。",[10,780,781,782,169],{},"想知道长期来看自己的记录该关注什么，请参阅",[14,783,784],{"href":579},"交易表现追踪指南",{"title":33,"searchDepth":306,"depth":306,"links":786},[787,788,789,790,791],{"id":22,"depth":306,"text":22},{"id":119,"depth":306,"text":119},{"id":138,"depth":306,"text":138},{"id":187,"depth":306,"text":188},{"id":263,"depth":306,"text":263},"止损是事先设好的离场订单，价格到了就平掉亏损的交易。本文介绍止损的类型、它为什么不是保证，以及数千个真实账户的数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss",[325,324,796],"what-is-slippage",{"title":602,"description":792},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","止损 (Stop Loss)","2026-09-24T00:00:00.000Z","GiHGbuQNpH6gFIz2Lq9Y4dIcuHRelVaklEcbYUiG7so",{"id":803,"title":804,"body":805,"category":588,"date":314,"description":1011,"draft":316,"extension":317,"meta":1012,"navigation":319,"path":1013,"related":1014,"seo":1016,"stem":1017,"term":1018,"updated":329,"__hash__":1019},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy.md","什么是期望值？公式、示例与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":806,"toc":1004},[807,810,812,818,825,828,834,837,839,845,852,860,862,872,887,906,908,919,951,968,970,999],[10,808,809],{},"期望值就是一笔交易的平均结果，可以用货币或点数表示：账户每开一笔仓位，平均能赚多少。它由胜率、平均盈利、亏损率、平均亏损四个数字算出，回答的是“这套系统每做一笔到底赚不赚钱”，而且结果可以直接乘以交易笔数。正期望值重复得足够多，就是一门生意；负期望值则是在倒数计时。",[20,811,22],{"id":22},[24,813,816],{"className":814,"code":815,"language":29},[27],"期望值 = (胜率 × 平均盈利) − (亏损率 × 平均亏损)\n\n亏损率 = 1 − 胜率\n",[31,817,815],{"__ignoreMap":33},[10,819,820,821,824],{},"假设一个系统胜率 40%，每笔盈利单赚 $300，每笔亏损单亏 $100：(0.40 × $300) − (0.60 × $100) = $120 − $60 = ",[143,822,823],{},"每笔交易 +$60","。一年做四百笔，预期结果就是 $24,000，这还没考虑仓位大小的变化，也没算上任何意外。",[10,826,827],{},"把同一个公式改用 R 倍数来写（R 即一笔平均亏损），账户货币的影响就去掉了，不同系统也能放在一起比较：",[24,829,832],{"className":830,"code":831,"language":29},[27],"期望值 (R) = (胜率 × 盈亏比) − (1 − 胜率)\n\n盈亏比 = 平均盈利 \u002F 平均亏损\n",[31,833,831],{"__ignoreMap":33},[10,835,836],{},"算出来的数字有没有意义，取决于两点。第一，输入里必须已经扣除成本：点差、佣金和库存费每笔都要付，盈利单因此变小，亏损单因此变大。第二，平均值背后要有足够多的交易，不能让某一笔特别大的结果单独左右它。",[20,838,119],{"id":119},[10,840,841,842,844],{},"统计数字要变成交易计划，靠的就是期望值。",[14,843,134],{"href":133},"告诉您赚的钱和亏的钱之比；期望值告诉您再多做一笔交易值多少钱，把它乘以交易频率，就能得出一个月的预期结果。",[10,846,847,848,851],{},"胜率掩盖的取舍，也会在期望值里暴露出来。胜率只是优势的一半，另一半是",[14,849,55],{"href":850},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio","，期望值正是两者的交汇点。动其中任何一个，结果都会跟着变；两个都不动，故事讲得再好，结果也不会变。",[10,853,854,855,859],{},"期望值还划出了成本的底线。如果一个策略每笔的期望是 +$8，而一个来回的",[14,856,858],{"href":857},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","点差","加佣金就要 $7，剩下的那点东西已经算不上策略了。",[20,861,138],{"id":138},[10,863,864,865,452,867,452,869,169],{},"以下数字描述的是 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月）取中间水平：",[143,866,149],{},[143,868,145],{},[143,870,871],{},"已平仓交易数中位数 171 笔",[10,873,874,875,877,878,881,882,169],{},"有了这几个数字，这个“中间账户”的期望值就能算出来。把盈利因子公式反推回去，平均盈利约为平均亏损的 ",[143,876,153],{},"；剩下的用 R 形式一算便知：(0.688 × 0.58) − 0.312 = ",[143,879,880],{},"+0.087R","。也就是说，每做一笔交易，只赚到一笔平均亏损的百分之九。171 笔交易下来，全部利润加起来大约只相当于十五笔平均亏损，所以尽管近七成交易以盈利平仓，",[143,883,884,886],{},[14,885,178],{"href":177},"的中位数也只有 +3.2%",[10,888,889,890,893,894,897,898,901,902,905],{},"优势薄到这个程度，成本就不是可以忽略的零头了。已发布账户累计支付了 ",[143,891,892],{},"$4,782,670 佣金","和 ",[143,895,896],{},"$862,547 库存费","；在产生过库存费的账户中，",[143,899,900],{},"86.3%"," 的净库存费为负。持仓时间中位数只有 ",[143,903,904],{},"2.4 小时","，在这种节奏下，0.087R 的优势要想保住，一个来回的成本相对平均亏损就必须足够小。",[20,907,188],{"id":187},[10,909,491,910,494,912,914,915,918],{},[143,911,201],{},[143,913,129],{},"这一行，位于",[143,916,917],{},"表现指标","分组。它在同一行里给出两种单位（先点数，后账户货币）：点数便于在不同品种之间比较，货币金额便于在不同仓位大小之间比较，单看哪一个都不完整。",[10,920,921,922,924,925,146,927,146,929,130,931,933,934,938,939,130,941,943,944,146,946,130,948,950],{},"它的四个输入在同一模块的",[143,923,205],{},"分组里：",[143,926,209],{},[143,928,194],{},[143,930,197],{},[143,932,508],{},"，旁边还有",[14,935,936],{"href":744},[143,937,747],{},"，能看出这点薄薄的单笔优势是几小时赚到的，还是几周才赚到的。已经扣除的成本显示在",[143,940,528],{},[143,942,531],{},"两行，每笔交易的明细则在交易表格的",[143,945,233],{},[143,947,523],{},[143,949,524],{},"列。",[10,952,953,954,958,959,146,962,130,965,967],{},"想检验一个期望值到底是一种优势，还是几种优势平均出来的，可以打开",[14,955,956],{"href":256},[143,957,259],{},"侧边面板：按品种、魔术号、方向、日期范围、星期或小时筛选出子集，整个区块就会重新计算。高级统计还提供",[143,960,961],{},"星期",[143,963,964],{},"小时",[143,966,236],{},"视图，不用筛选就能把同一结果拆开来看。",[20,969,263],{"id":263},[265,971,972,981,987,993],{},[268,973,270,974,977,978,980],{},[143,975,976],{},"正期望值就意味着我会赚钱。","”它只说明平均每笔交易是盈利的。仓位定错了，正期望值的系统照样会亏光：能不能活下来，是",[14,979,290],{"href":289},"的问题，不是期望值的问题。",[268,982,270,983,986],{},[143,984,985],{},"期望值就是我的平均每笔交易。","”前提是平均值按净额计算。按毛利润算就漏掉了佣金和库存费，而薄优势恰恰是在这里消失的。",[268,988,270,989,992],{},[143,990,991],{},"高胜率就意味着正期望值。","”单看胜率说明不了任何问题。盈亏比为 0.58 时，60% 的胜率是个亏钱的系统。",[268,994,270,995,998],{},[143,996,997],{},"这个数字很稳定。","”只有几百笔交易时并不稳定。一笔特别大的盈利单就能把整个记录的期望值抬上去，把它去掉再算一遍，是个公平的检验。",[10,1000,1001,1002,169],{},"哪些指标值得长期追踪、该按什么顺序看，请参阅",[14,1003,580],{"href":579},{"title":33,"searchDepth":306,"depth":306,"links":1005},[1006,1007,1008,1009,1010],{"id":22,"depth":306,"text":22},{"id":119,"depth":306,"text":119},{"id":138,"depth":306,"text":138},{"id":187,"depth":306,"text":188},{"id":263,"depth":306,"text":263},"期望值是单笔交易的平均盈亏：(胜率 × 平均盈利) − (亏损率 × 平均亏损)。本文给出公式、完整算例和公开账户的真实数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy",[324,1015,325,593],"what-is-risk-reward-ratio",{"title":804,"description":1011},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy","期望值 (Expectancy)","4gLLgYBgHrrvWKTKFixk2tUfM9kXODaMx4LcyeirnhQ",{"id":1021,"title":1022,"body":1023,"category":313,"date":314,"description":1217,"draft":316,"extension":317,"meta":1218,"navigation":319,"path":1219,"related":1220,"seo":1222,"stem":1223,"term":1224,"updated":314,"__hash__":1225},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing.md","什么是仓位管理？公式与手数计算",{"type":7,"value":1024,"toc":1210},[1025,1033,1035,1038,1044,1047,1053,1059,1062,1082,1088,1091,1093,1096,1103,1105,1119,1122,1136,1138,1143,1170,1172,1203],[10,1026,1027,1028,1032],{},"仓位管理（position sizing）决定一笔交易开多大，依据是这笔交易失败时您愿意亏掉账户的多少。它用两个数把风险百分比换算成手数：到止损的距离，以及这个手数下一个点值多少钱。账户的",[14,1029,1031],{"href":1030},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","回撤","特征就由这一个变量决定，而且它是在交易前选定的，不是交易后才发现的。",[20,1034,22],{"id":22},[10,1036,1037],{},"分三步，按顺序来。",[24,1039,1042],{"className":1040,"code":1041,"language":29},[27],"1. 风险金额   = 账户余额 × 风险 %\n2. 点值　　   = 合约规模 × 以报价货币计的一个点 × 换算为账户货币的汇率\n3. 仓位大小   = 风险金额 \u002F (止损距离点数 × 每手点值)\n",[31,1043,1041],{"__ignoreMap":33},[10,1045,1046],{},"举个例子：$10,000 的账户，每笔交易风险 1%，EUR\u002FUSD 止损 50 点，一标准手每点 $10：",[24,1048,1051],{"className":1049,"code":1050,"language":29},[27],"风险金额   = 10,000 × 0.01      = $100\n仓位大小   = 100 \u002F (50 × 10)    = 0.20 手\n",[31,1052,1050],{"__ignoreMap":33},[10,1054,1055,1056,1058],{},"止损放宽到 100 点，同样 $100 的风险就只能开 0.10 手。风险不变，手数跟着调整。整个思路就在这种反向关系里，也正因为如此，仓位管理和",[14,1057,17],{"href":16},"位置不能分开决定。",[10,1060,1061],{},"实践中最常用的有三种方法：",[265,1063,1064,1070,1076],{},[268,1065,1066,1069],{},[143,1067,1068],{},"固定手数","。不管止损多远、余额多少，永远 0.10 手。简单，但止损和余额一变，单笔风险就跟着漂移。",[268,1071,1072,1075],{},[143,1073,1074],{},"百分比风险（固定比例）","。也就是上面的公式。风险始终与账户成比例，账户缩水时，按金额计的亏损也随之变小，回本在算术上才有可能。",[268,1077,1078,1081],{},[143,1079,1080],{},"马丁格尔递增","。亏损后加大手数，想把亏损扳回来。盈利频繁而且每笔都小，净值曲线漂亮得无可挑剔，但结果的分布有一条很厚的左尾，而且会一下子全部兑现。",[10,1083,1084],{},[463,1085],{"alt":1086,"src":1087},"每次亏损后手数加倍，对比按净值固定比例下单：胜率相同，市场相同，结局相反","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Flot-progression.svg",[10,1089,1090],{},"一个账户用的是哪一种，光看手数就能看出来。",[20,1092,119],{"id":119},[10,1094,1095],{},"入场决定您能不能赢，仓位管理决定您还能不能留下来做下一笔。两个交易者用同样的信号、同样的止损，胜率一模一样，账户却天差地别，因为一个每笔只冒 0.5% 的风险，另一个冒 8%。",[10,1097,1098,1102],{},[14,1099,1101],{"href":1100},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-leverage","杠杆","真正造成伤害，也是通过仓位管理。高杠杆本身不是风险，只是允许您去冒险。风险来自用这份许可开出的仓位：按它的止损距离，一笔亏损大到账户连亏两次都扛不住。",[20,1104,138],{"id":138},[10,1106,1107,1108,1111,1112,452,1115,1118],{},"仓位管理会在回撤的尾部留下痕迹。在 ShowMyTrades 上有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月；统计对象是在本站公开的账户，并不代表所有交易者），",[143,1109,1110],{},"38.2%"," 曾",[14,1113,1114],{"href":434},"回撤超过 20%",[143,1116,1117],{},"17.6%"," 亏掉了峰值的一半以上。",[10,1120,1121],{},"规模定得合理的固定比例账户，很少会落到最后这一档。按每笔 1% 的风险亏掉 50%，大约要连亏 69 次。落在这条尾部里的账户，一般另有原因：亏损后不断加码，或者定手数时根本没考虑止损。",[10,1123,1124,1125,452,1128,1131,1132,1135],{},"再看看仓位大小是谁定的：这些账户自动交易占比的中位数为 ",[143,1126,1127],{},"99%",[143,1129,1130],{},"53.9%"," 的账户自动化程度超过 90%，低于 10% 的则有 ",[143,1133,1134],{},"42.2%","。在一半以上的已发布账户上，仓位大小只是 EA 设置里的一行，设好一次，余额怎么变都不再调整。",[20,1137,188],{"id":187},[10,1139,1140,1142],{},[14,1141,654],{"href":653},"用实时价格、以您的账户货币套用上面的公式，风险可以按百分比或固定金额设定，止损可以用价格或点数表示。",[10,1144,1145,1146,1148,1149,1152,1153,1155,1156,1159,1160,1162,1163,1169],{},"在已发布账户的页面上，仓位管理可以实际核查，不必凭空猜测。",[143,1147,220],{},"有一列",[143,1150,1151],{},"交易量","，列出每笔交易的手数，每亏一次就加一级的手数一眼就能看出来。",[143,1154,259],{},"提供",[143,1157,1158],{},"手数","的最小\u002F最大筛选：把下限设在账户正常手数之上，看看剩下的交易是不是都紧跟在亏损之后出现，这就是马丁格尔的特征。",[143,1161,201],{},"模块里的",[14,1164,1166],{"href":1165},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftrading-volume-analysis",[143,1167,1168],{},"总手数","给出汇总值；所有已发布账户累计交易了 1,724,575 手。",[20,1171,263],{"id":263},[265,1173,1174,1180,1191,1197],{},[268,1175,270,1176,1179],{},[143,1177,1178],{},"风险 2%，就是动用账户的 2%。","”不是。2% 是止损被触发时的亏损。仓位占用的保证金是另一个完全不同的数字，由杠杆决定。",[268,1181,270,1182,1185,1186,1190],{},[143,1183,1184],{},"我每笔只冒 1% 的风险，所以最坏也就亏 1%。","”只有同时只开一个仓位时才成立。",[14,1187,1189],{"href":1188},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-correlation-risk","五个相关的仓位","各占 1%，其实是一笔换了装扮的 5% 交易，而相关的货币对偏偏在最伤人的时候同涨同跌。",[268,1192,270,1193,1196],{},[143,1194,1195],{},"不设止损，就没有风险要算。","”没有止损，仓位大小公式就没有分母：风险不是很小，而是根本无法定义，它的真实数值就是追加保证金通知。",[268,1198,270,1199,1202],{},[143,1200,1201],{},"复利就是不断加仓。","”固定比例的仓位管理是双向调整的。赢了加手数、亏了却不减，这不是复利，而是一个慢慢收紧的棘轮，把账户推向一场您定仓位时从未考虑过的回撤。",[10,1204,1205,1206,169],{},"全套风险与仓位管理工具，以及各自适用的场景，请参阅",[14,1207,1209],{"href":1208},"\u002Fguides\u002Fforex-calculators-guide","外汇计算器指南",{"title":33,"searchDepth":306,"depth":306,"links":1211},[1212,1213,1214,1215,1216],{"id":22,"depth":306,"text":22},{"id":119,"depth":306,"text":119},{"id":138,"depth":306,"text":138},{"id":187,"depth":306,"text":188},{"id":263,"depth":306,"text":263},"仓位管理就是根据止损距离和点值，把风险百分比换算成手数。本文介绍公式、三种常见方法，以及仓位定错的代价。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing",[593,594,323,1221],"what-is-leverage",{"title":1022,"description":1217},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理 (Position Sizing)","5hi2OmhGtFDhESyalituW-Nh51a9wIit5SKZxEMEQyk",[1227,1228],{"path":850},{"path":320},1793898063757]