[{"data":1,"prerenderedAt":1134},["ShallowReactive",2],{"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return":3,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return-related":263,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return-langs":1131},{"id":4,"title":5,"body":6,"category":245,"date":246,"description":247,"draft":248,"extension":249,"meta":250,"navigation":251,"path":252,"related":253,"seo":258,"stem":259,"term":260,"updated":261,"__hash__":262},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return.md","什么是时间加权收益率（TWR）？",{"type":7,"value":8,"toc":237},"minimark",[9,18,22,25,36,39,46,53,56,67,73,76,79,82,95,98,109,134,149,153,174,195,198,230],[10,11,12,13,17],"p",{},"时间加权收益率（TWR）只衡量交易决策本身带来的收益，入金和出金都不算在内。做法是在每一笔资金进出的地方把账户历史切开，每一段单独计算，再把各段复利相乘。ShowMyTrades 账户页面上的",[14,15,16],"strong",{},"增长","，就是这个数字。",[19,20,21],"h2",{"id":21},"工作原理",[10,23,24],{},"钱转进转出，余额就会变，跟交易毫无关系。TWR 的办法是：资金进出一律不进入收益计算。",[26,27,32],"pre",{"className":28,"code":30,"language":31},[29],"language-text","TWR = [(1 + r₁) × (1 + r₂) × … × (1 + rₙ)] − 1\n\nrᵢ = 第 i 期的盈利 \u002F 第 i 期开始时的余额\n","text",[33,34,30],"code",{"__ignoreMap":35},"",[10,37,38],{},"每一期都夹在两次资金进出之间。一笔入金结束上一期，下一期从入金后更大的余额开始；入金本身永远不会出现在分子里。在 ShowMyTrades 上，子期间按天划分：每天的收益以当天开始时的余额为基准，扣除当天产生的成本，再把每天的收益复利相乘。",[10,40,41,42,45],{},"举个直白的例子。用 $10,000 开户，赚了 $2,000：第一期收益 20%。再入金 $10,000，余额变成 $22,000，又赚了 $2,000：第二期收益是 9.1%，因为基数变大了。看余额，是投入 $20,000 赚了 +$4,000；看 TWR，则是 (1 + 0.20) × (1 + 0.091) − 1 = ",[14,43,44],{},"+30.9%","。入金本身一分钱也没赚到。",[10,47,48],{},[49,50],"img",{"alt":51,"src":52},"一笔 $10,000 入金让余额线跳上一个台阶，时间加权收益率线却纹丝不动","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fdeposit-vs-twr.svg",[10,54,55],{},"钱到账那天，余额跳了上去，增长却没动。",[10,57,58,59,66],{},"这就是它和同一面板上另一个百分比",[60,61,63],"a",{"href":62},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-absolute-gain",[14,64,65],{},"绝对增长","的区别：",[26,68,71],{"className":69,"code":70,"language":31},[29],"绝对增长 = 已平仓净盈亏 \u002F 入金总额 × 100\n",[33,72,70],{"__ignoreMap":35},[10,74,75],{},"绝对增长回答的是：投进去的钱，账户赚回了多少；TWR 回答的是：这些钱交易得好不好。两者都很诚实，但只有 TWR 能在规模不同、资金进出方式不同的账户之间比较。",[19,77,78],{"id":78},"为什么重要",[10,80,81],{},"业绩记录之所以能拿来比较，靠的就是 TWR。没有它，百分比可以靠在回撤中入金来美化：$10,000 的账户亏掉 $5,000，是 −50%；第二天补进 $10,000，同一个还没填上的窟窿，按新余额算就只剩 −33%。",[10,83,84,85,89,90,94],{},"反过来也一样，所以它是公平的数字，而不是讨好人的数字。出金抬不高 TWR，赶在好月份之前恰到好处地入金也抬不高。剩下的，就是交易决策本身的",[60,86,88],{"href":87},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve","净值曲线","，这也是",[60,91,93],{"href":92},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","经验证的业绩记录","的读者唯一能让交易者负责的部分。",[19,96,97],{"id":97},"数据显示了什么",[10,99,100,101,104,105,108],{},"以下数字描述的是 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月），",[14,102,103],{},"时间加权收益率中位数为 +3.2%","，按时间加权计算为正的账户占 ",[14,106,107],{},"63.0%","。",[10,110,111,112,120,121,124,125,129,130,133],{},"由此能读出两点。第一，按这个标准，多数已发布账户确实在赚钱，并不像网上说的那样一片狼藉。第二，分布的中间值很小：+3.2%，而",[14,113,114,115,119],{},"最深",[60,116,118],{"href":117},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","回撤","的中位数为 9.7%","，也就是说，典型账户一路上回吐的幅度，大约是最终收益的三倍。同一批账户中，",[14,122,123],{},"38.2%"," 曾",[60,126,128],{"href":127},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-maximum-drawdown","回撤超过 20%","，",[14,131,132],{},"17.6%"," 曾回撤超过 50%。",[10,135,136,137,140,141,144,145,108],{},"这里的中位数账户有 ",[14,138,139],{},"171 笔已平仓交易","，样本总共 ",[14,142,143],{},"15,436,464 笔已同步交易","。历史很短的账户 TWR 再高，",[60,146,148],{"href":147},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-much-history-a-track-record-needs","说明的也只是几周的表现，而不是一套方法",[19,150,152],{"id":151},"在-showmytrades-上的位置","在 ShowMyTrades 上的位置",[10,154,155,156,159,160,162,163,165,166,169,170,173],{},"每个已发布账户页面的",[14,157,158],{},"账户统计","面板中，第一行、也是最醒目的一行就是",[14,161,16],{},"，它就是 TWR。",[14,164,65],{},"紧挨在它下面，受资金进出影响的数字和不受影响的数字，始终放在一起。再往下两行的",[14,167,168],{},"日均 %"," 和",[14,171,172],{},"月均 %","，也都出自同一条时间加权序列。",[10,175,176,177,179,180,183,184,187,188,194],{},"图表模块是一个可以切换视图的面板，而不是一摞图表，它用两种方式画出 TWR。",[14,178,16],{},"视图显示账户整个历史上按日复利的 TWR；",[14,181,182],{},"逐笔交易增长","把同一条序列按交易序号而不是日期来画，交易频率就一目了然：两个都是 +40% 的账户，按日历看一模一样，可如果一个只做了 90 笔、另一个做了 9,000 笔，按交易序号看就完全不同。",[14,185,186],{},"余额","视图显示原始金额，入金出金都在里面，这正是 TWR 要纠正的那幅画面。",[60,189,191],{"href":190},"\u002Fguides\u002Fmonthly-returns-table-explained",[14,192,193],{},"月度收益表","则把同一条时间加权序列按月、按年拆开。",[19,196,197],{"id":197},"常见误解",[199,200,201,209,218,224],"ul",{},[202,203,204,205,208],"li",{},"“",[14,206,207],{},"TWR 就是我赚了多少钱。","”它不是金额。一个账户如果大部分时间都用很小的仓位交易，TWR 可以是 +80%，利润却很少。",[202,210,204,211,214,215,108],{},[14,212,213],{},"我的入金拉低了增长。","”不可能。一笔入金只是结束一个计算期、开始下一个，对收益没有任何正面或负面的贡献。人们通常注意到的，其实是入金没能像余额图那样把百分比",[14,216,217],{},"抬高",[202,219,204,220,223],{},[14,221,222],{},"TWR 和绝对增长应该一致。","”只有只入金一次、从未出金的账户，两者才会一致。出现差异，说明的是资金进出的情况，不是数据出错。",[202,225,204,226,229],{},[14,227,228],{},"它是年度数字。","”它是从账户第一笔交易起的累计值，没有年化。三年 +3.2% 和三个月 +3.2%，是完全不同的结果。",[10,231,232,233,108],{},"想看具体算例，包括入金如何掩盖回撤，请参阅",[60,234,236],{"href":235},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftime-weighted-return-explained","时间加权收益率详解",{"title":35,"searchDepth":238,"depth":238,"links":239},2,[240,241,242,243,244],{"id":21,"depth":238,"text":21},{"id":78,"depth":238,"text":78},{"id":97,"depth":238,"text":97},{"id":151,"depth":238,"text":152},{"id":197,"depth":238,"text":197},"指标","2026-08-19T00:00:00.000Z","时间加权收益率把各子期间的收益复利相乘，入金和出金因此不影响结果。本文介绍公式、它与绝对增长率的区别，以及公开账户的数据。",false,"md",{},true,"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return",[254,255,256,257],"what-is-an-equity-curve","what-is-drawdown","what-is-a-verified-track-record","what-is-expectancy",{"title":5,"description":247},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","时间加权收益率 (Time-Weighted Return)","2026-09-17T00:00:00.000Z","F3XPVDAsdwIkxdhz7jxOdVqNAqaclnEAOAx0877XIQI",[264,449,691,887],{"id":265,"title":266,"body":267,"category":438,"date":246,"description":439,"draft":248,"extension":249,"meta":440,"navigation":251,"path":441,"related":442,"seo":445,"stem":446,"term":447,"updated":246,"__hash__":448},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record.md","什么是经验证的业绩记录？定义与核查",{"type":7,"value":268,"toc":431},[269,272,274,297,303,306,312,315,317,326,329,331,341,357,359,381,392,394,424],[10,270,271],{},"经验证的业绩记录，是通过只读连接直接从经纪商持续传来的交易结果记录，整条链路上没有任何一个环节能让发布者编辑、删除或调整顺序。这正是“说法”和“证据”的区别。这个词里其实藏着两个不同的问题，关于验证的争论，大多源于把两者混为一谈。",[19,273,21],{"id":21},[10,275,276,277,281,282,286,287,291,292,296],{},"第一个问题：数据是不是真的。这由连接本身来回答：通道只能读取账户，永远不能写入，而且不间断地运行，所以记录是持续积累起来的，而不是挑个方便的时候导出来的。在 ShowMyTrades 上，这条通道是以下四种之一：安装在 MetaTrader 4 或 5 中的 EA（智能交易系统）、使用 ",[60,278,280],{"href":279},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-mt4-investor-password","MT4 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授权就能同时回答这两个问题。",[10,307,308],{},[49,309],{"alt":310,"src":311},"“业绩记录已验证”回答的是：数据是否通过一条无法下单、改单或平仓的通道从经纪商传来；“交易权限已验证”回答的是：发布者是否控制着这个账户","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Ftwo-badges.svg",[10,313,314],{},"一份记录可能过了一关、没过另一关，所以两者分开统计。",[19,316,78],{"id":78},[10,318,319,320,322,323,325],{},"连接之后的一切都只是算术。只要输入能被改动，盈利因子、",[60,321,118],{"href":117},"和",[60,324,88],{"href":87},"就全是摆设，页面做得再详细也没用。截图、PDF 对账单和电子表格有着同一个毛病：它们都出自请您信任它们的那个人之手。",[10,327,328],{},"连续性和只读访问同样重要。可以暂停、再恢复的记录，能让一个糟糕的月份凭空消失。数据流连续时，中断本身就会在页面上显示出来，这本身就是信息，而不是信息的缺失。",[19,330,97],{"id":97},[10,332,333,334,129,337,340],{},"验证要自己主动去做，还得花点功夫，数字也说明了这一点。截至 2026 年 8 月，在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的 1 万+ 个账户中，只有 ",[14,335,336],{},"65 个带有“业绩记录已验证”",[14,338,339],{},"264 个带有“交易权限已验证”","。证明所有权的账户比证明数据来源的多，因为挂一笔单，比去经纪商那里改密码容易。",[10,342,343,344,348,349,352,353,356],{},"已验证不等于表现好。在有交易历史的公开账户中，",[60,345,347],{"href":346},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-time-weighted-return","时间加权收益率","的中位数为 ",[14,350,351],{},"+3.2%","，63.0% 为正，最深回撤的中位数为 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字段就在那里：清空它并保存，业绩记录徽章当即变灰。",[14,389,390],{},"完整控制台","小组件也会显示这两枚徽章，因为它嵌入了账户头部，所以放在别人网站上的小组件，也带着自己的数据来源。",[19,393,197],{"id":197},[199,395,396,406,412,418],{},[202,397,398,108,401,405],{},[14,399,400],{},"指向某个追踪网站的链接，不等于验证",[60,402,404],{"href":403},"\u002Fguides\u002Fthird-party-verification-explained","任何平台都能托管未经验证的账户","。要看页面上的徽章，而不是网址里的域名。",[202,407,408,411],{},[14,409,410],{},"“业绩记录已验证”证明不了所有权","。它证明的是交易真实存在。转卖别人投资者密码的人，同样能提供真实的数据流，只是那些交易不是他自己的。",[202,413,414,417],{},[14,415,416],{},"已验证不等于盈利","。徽章只认证数据来源，别的一概不管。之后还得把增长率和回撤放在一起看。",[202,419,420,423],{},[14,421,422],{},"经验证的模拟账户，仍然是模拟账户","。偏偏在实盘成交最吃亏的那些时候，模拟成交显得过于乐观。",[10,425,426,427,108],{},"两枚徽章的验证步骤详解：",[60,428,430],{"href":429},"\u002Fguides\u002Fhow-to-verify-your-account","如何验证您的交易账户",{"title":35,"searchDepth":238,"depth":238,"links":432},[433,434,435,436,437],{"id":21,"depth":238,"text":21},{"id":78,"depth":238,"text":78},{"id":97,"depth":238,"text":97},{"id":151,"depth":238,"text":152},{"id":197,"depth":238,"text":197},"验证","经验证的业绩记录，是通过只读连接直接从经纪商持续获取的业绩数据，发布者无法改动其中任何内容。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record",[443,444,255],"what-is-an-mt4-investor-password","what-is-myfxbook",{"title":266,"description":439},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-verified-track-record","经验证的业绩记录 (Verified Track Record)","XXw0XywuXXvGTGPkURwZXnd-tURxBRrjPXvj-rr4h2k",{"id":450,"title":451,"body":452,"category":245,"date":246,"description":680,"draft":248,"extension":249,"meta":681,"navigation":251,"path":682,"related":683,"seo":687,"stem":688,"term":689,"updated":261,"__hash__":690},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve.md","什么是净值曲线？如何解读它的形状",{"type":7,"value":453,"toc":673},[454,457,459,465,468,474,477,483,486,515,517,523,526,528,544,559,569,571,591,608,631,633,666],[10,455,456],{},"净值曲线是账户价值随时间变化的图。像样的账户页面会画两条线，而不是一条：余额，只算已平仓交易；净值，再加上所有未平仓仓位的浮动盈亏。两条线之间的距离，就是账户还没有认下的那部分故事。",[19,458,21],{"id":21},[26,460,463],{"className":461,"code":462,"language":31},[29],"净值 = 余额 + 持仓的浮动盈亏\n",[33,464,462],{"__ignoreMap":35},[10,466,467],{},"没有持仓时，两条线重合。有持仓时，净值在动，余额不动。一笔亏损仓位只要一直不平，余额线就保持平直，净值线却被往下拉；一旦平仓，余额线就掉下来和净值会合。所以余额图上一笔“突然”的亏损，往往几周前就已经发生了。",[10,469,470],{},[49,471],{"alt":472,"src":473},"一条平滑的余额线，净值线被仍处于亏损中的持仓拉到它的下方","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Fequity-vs-balance.svg",[10,475,476],{},"亏损单不平，余额线就能一直保持整齐。",[10,478,479,480,482],{},"入金和出金会让两条线同时上下移动，期间没有任何交易，所以原始曲线不能当收益来看。",[60,481,347],{"href":346},"就是为了做这个修正。",[10,484,485],{},"曲线的形状和终点一样有信息量：",[199,487,488,494,500,509],{},[202,489,490,493],{},[14,491,492],{},"锯齿状上升，回撤清晰可见","。正常。每个策略都有连亏的时候，没有反而反常。",[202,495,496,499],{},[14,497,498],{},"余额线几乎是一条笔直的斜线","。这是警示，不是夸奖。通常意味着亏损单一直扛着、盈利单及时平掉（网格、逆势加仓摊平或马丁格尔的做法），风险已经转到净值线上，只看余额的图表根本反映不出来。",[202,501,502,505,506,108],{},[14,503,504],{},"长期走平，中间夹着几级垂直台阶","。要么仓位规模变了，要么账户交易很少、每次下得很重。",[60,507,508],{"href":147},"先看交易笔数，再看斜率",[202,510,511,514],{},[14,512,513],{},"一路平稳上升，然后戛然而止","。典型的一次性爆仓形态：许多小额盈利，养着一笔大到足以终结账户的亏损。",[19,516,78],{"id":78},[10,518,519,520,522],{},"持续时间要靠曲线才看得见。一个摘要数字告诉您最大",[60,521,118],{"href":117},"是 18%；只有曲线会告诉您它持续了九个月，而真正让人放弃的，正是这一点。",[10,524,525],{},"它也是检验业绩记录最快的测谎仪。人们宣传的是收益，很少提形状，而形状要难伪造得多：一条从来没有过糟糕一周的余额线，要么根本没经历过那样的行情，要么就是没把亏损单平掉。",[19,527,97],{"id":97},[10,529,530,531,108,534,537,538,540,541,543],{},"以下数字只描述在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。截至 2026 年 8 月，有交易历史的已发布账户中，按净值计算的",[14,532,533],{},"最深回撤中位数为 9.7%",[14,535,536],{},"38.5%"," 的账户从未比自身峰值低过 5% 以上，",[14,539,123],{}," 曾低于峰值 20% 以上，",[14,542,132],{}," 曾低于峰值 50% 以上。",[10,545,546,547,550,551,555,556,558],{},"再对照 ",[14,548,549],{},"+3.2% 的时间加权收益率中位数","，真实的形状就出来了：斜率平缓，凹陷真实存在，而且",[60,552,554],{"href":553},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-recovery-factor","最深的那次凹陷是最终收益的好几倍","。中位数账户走到这一步用了 ",[14,557,139],{},"，任何一条看起来平滑的曲线都要放在这个背景下看：曲线背后的交易越少，平滑就越说明不了问题。",[10,560,561,562,564,565,568],{},"净值和余额之间的差距也能量化。每个账户都同时有基于净值的",[14,563,118],{},"和只基于已平仓结果的",[14,566,567],{},"余额回撤","。两者差得多，就是“笔直斜线”警示的数字版：余额线之所以整齐，是靠那些还没平仓的仓位撑着。",[19,570,152],{"id":151},[10,572,573,574,577,578,580,581,580,583,580,586,322,588,590],{},"每个已发布账户页面上的",[14,575,576],{},"图表模块","是一个面板，可以在五个视图之间切换：",[14,579,16],{},"、",[14,582,186],{},[14,584,585],{},"盈利",[14,587,182],{},[14,589,118],{},"，而不是一堆分开的图表。",[10,592,593,595,596,322,598,601,602,604,605,607],{},[14,594,186],{},"视图才是真正意义上的净值曲线。它画出",[14,597,186],{},[14,599,600],{},"净值","两条带名称的序列，并附有图例，浮动差距直接就能看到，不用推断；入金和出金在线上有标记，所以一次跳升会被看作注资，而不是交易所得。",[14,603,16],{},"视图把同一账户重新画成复利计算的时间加权收益率，去掉了资金进出。",[14,606,118],{},"视图用柱状图画出每天低于历史高点的距离，下跌持续了多久，在这里一看便知。",[10,609,610,611,613,614,580,616,618,619,622,623,322,625,627,628,630],{},"对应的数字在",[14,612,158],{},"面板里：",[14,615,186],{},[14,617,600],{},"（金额旁还显示它占余额的百分比，大额浮亏一眼就能看出）和",[14,620,621],{},"最高余额","，即账户曾经达到的最高点。",[14,624,118],{},[14,626,567],{},"在同一面板",[14,629,172],{}," 下面的两行。",[19,632,197],{"id":197},[199,634,635,645,651,660],{},[202,636,204,637,640,641,644],{},[14,638,639],{},"净值曲线平滑，说明风险低。","”往往正好相反。余额线平滑，恰恰是从不兑现亏损的标志，风险藏在净值线和",[60,642,643],{"href":127},"最大回撤","里。",[202,646,204,647,650],{},[14,648,649],{},"净值曲线就是余额图。","”余额只算已平仓交易。净值还包括未平仓交易，两者之差正是还没入账的那部分金额。",[202,652,204,653,656,657,659],{},[14,654,655],{},"曲线涨了，说明交易有效。","”先把入金剔除再说。所以我们页面上的增长是时间加权的，",[60,658,65],{"href":62},"则单独显示。",[202,661,204,662,665],{},[14,663,664],{},"创了新高，说明账户恢复了。","”这只说明余额恢复了。如果新高是靠亏损后加大仓位换来的，账户并没有恢复，只是加倍下注，侥幸过关。",[10,667,668,669,108],{},"曲线的形状怎样暴露人为做出来的业绩，请参阅",[60,670,672],{"href":671},"\u002Fguides\u002Fspotting-fake-ea-results","识破虚假 EA 业绩",{"title":35,"searchDepth":238,"depth":238,"links":674},[675,676,677,678,679],{"id":21,"depth":238,"text":21},{"id":78,"depth":238,"text":78},{"id":97,"depth":238,"text":97},{"id":151,"depth":238,"text":152},{"id":197,"depth":238,"text":197},"净值曲线描绘账户价值随时间的变化，隐藏的亏损就藏在余额线和净值线之间的差距里。看看公开账户的数据怎么说。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve",[684,255,685,686],"what-is-time-weighted-return","what-is-maximum-drawdown","what-is-a-profit-factor",{"title":451,"description":680},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-an-equity-curve","净值曲线 (Equity Curve)","xYlV0ekS-m-8z5Bq01z87DT2GCAWWtPeFgyUwQoH3X4",{"id":692,"title":693,"body":694,"category":245,"date":246,"description":877,"draft":248,"extension":249,"meta":878,"navigation":251,"path":879,"related":880,"seo":883,"stem":884,"term":885,"updated":246,"__hash__":886},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown.md","什么是回撤？定义、公式与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":695,"toc":870},[696,699,701,704,710,713,716,747,749,752,758,761,764,776,778,783,794,797,799,817,832,834,863],[10,697,698],{},"回撤是账户价值从此前的峰值跌到之后低点的幅度，用峰值的百分比表示。它衡量的是账户离自己最好的时候跌了多少，而不是某一笔交易亏了多少。回撤是累积的，所以 20% 的回撤，可能来自四十笔小亏损，也可能来自一次巨亏。",[19,700,21],{"id":21},[10,702,703],{},"每个账户都有一条随时更新的高水位线，也就是它曾经达到的最高价值。回撤就是任意时刻账户低于这条线的距离。",[26,705,708],{"className":706,"code":707,"language":31},[29],"回撤 % = (峰值 − 当前值) \u002F 峰值 × 100\n",[33,709,707],{"__ignoreMap":35},[10,711,712],{},"这条线只升不降。账户一创新高，高水位线就移到新高，回撤归零。在那之前，只要低于峰值，每一天都算在回撤中，不管账户是在下跌还是在横盘磨蹭。",[10,714,715],{},"这个数字到底是什么意思，要看三组区分：",[199,717,718,728,734],{},[202,719,720,723,724,727],{},[14,721,722],{},"相对回撤与绝对回撤","。相对回撤就是上面的百分比。MetaTrader 报告的绝对回撤，是账户低于",[14,725,726],{},"初始入金","的金额，这是完全不同的数字：一个当前比峰值低 40% 的账户，绝对回撤可能显示为 0%。",[202,729,730,733],{},[14,731,732],{},"净值回撤与余额回撤","。净值回撤包含持仓的浮动亏损。余额回撤只看已平仓交易，所以一笔亏损只要不兑现，就永远不会出现在里面。",[202,735,736,739,740,742,743,746],{},[14,737,738],{},"当前回撤与最大回撤","。当前回撤是账户今天的位置。历史上最差的那一次是",[60,741,643],{"href":127},"，大多数",[60,744,368],{"href":745},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-track-record","引用的就是它。",[19,748,78],{"id":78},[10,750,751],{},"一个策略值不值得投资，回撤是硬约束，因为亏损和盈利的复利效果并不对称。跌 20%，要涨 25% 才能回本；跌 50%，要涨 100%。",[10,753,754],{},[49,755],{"alt":756,"src":757},"亏损 10% 需要 11.1% 的盈利才能弥补，25% 需要 33.3%，50% 需要 100%，70% 需要 233%","\u002Fimages\u002Farticles\u002Frecovery-asymmetry.svg",[10,759,760],{},"跌幅一旦超过 50%，回本所需的涨幅就比亏损本身还大。",[10,762,763],{},"让人离开市场的，也是这个数字。几乎没有人会在急速暴跌中放弃，那时心里还抱着希望。人们是在不温不火的回升熬到第九个月时放弃的。深度只占一半，另一半是持续时间，而它在收益图上根本看不出来。",[10,765,766,767,322,771,775],{},"另外，回撤主要取决于",[60,768,770],{"href":769},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-position-sizing","仓位管理",[60,772,774],{"href":773},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-stop-loss","止损","纪律，远远超过入场质量。两位交易者信号完全一样、手数不同，胜率会一模一样，生存能力却天差地别。",[19,777,97],{"id":97},[10,779,780,781,108],{},"以下数字只描述在 ShowMyTrades 上发布的账户，并不是对全体交易者的调查。截至 2026 年 8 月，根据 15,436,464 笔已同步交易，有交易历史的已发布账户，历史最深回撤中位数为 ",[14,782,355],{},[10,784,785,786,788,789,129,791,793],{},"再看同一批账户赚了多少。",[60,787,347],{"href":346},"中位数为 ",[14,790,351],{},[14,792,107],{}," 的账户长期为正。也就是说，处在中位数的账户，一路上回吐的幅度，大约是最终收益的三倍：承受的风险比得到的结果大，而且大出的是倍数，不是一星半点。",[10,795,796],{},"让回撤数字有意义的，是这个比值，而不是回撤本身有多深。宣称收益很高、回撤却只有百分之二三的账户并非不可能，但它处在这个分布的最边缘，这种极端情况要靠账户页面上的其余内容来证明。",[19,798,152],{"id":151},[10,800,801,802,804,805,807,808,810,811,816],{},"在每个已发布账户页面上，",[14,803,158],{},"面板在",[14,806,172],{}," 下方连续两行显示两个数字：",[14,809,118],{},"，基于净值计算，包含持仓的浮动亏损；以及",[60,812,814],{"href":813},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown-on-balance",[14,815,567],{},"，只基于已平仓结果。两者都是历史最大值，不是今天的读数，而且都来自经纪商的数据，不是账户所有者自己填的。",[10,818,819,820,822,823,826,827,831],{},"图表模块有一个",[14,821,118],{},"视图，用柱状图画出账户整个生命周期的每日回撤。下跌",[14,824,825],{},"持续了多久","，在这里直接就能看出来，不用靠推测，这是任何一个醒目的百分比都表达不了的。",[60,828,830],{"href":829},"\u002Ftools\u002Fdrawdown-calculator","回撤计算器","可以用您自己的余额算出回本需要多少涨幅。",[19,833,197],{"id":197},[199,835,836,842,848,857],{},[202,837,204,838,841],{},[14,839,840],{},"回撤就是我亏得最多的那一笔。","”不是。它是一条从峰值到谷底的累积路径，中间可能有几百笔交易，盈利单也包括在内。",[202,843,204,844,847],{},[14,845,846],{},"回本之后，我的回撤又回到零了。","”当前回撤是这样。最大回撤按设计永远不会降：这样，一个好季度就抹不掉一个坏季度。",[202,849,204,850,853,854,108],{},[14,851,852],{},"回撤低，说明风险低。","”新账户回撤低，通常只说明还没经受考验。这里已发布账户的已平仓交易数中位数是 171 笔；不到几百笔时，",[60,855,856],{"href":147},"回撤小反映的是样本量，而不是风险特征",[202,858,204,859,862],{},[14,860,861],{},"余额回撤才是真正的回撤。","”它只是更好看的那个。网格和摊平加仓类系统正是靠死扛亏损单不平，才让余额回撤一直很小。",[10,864,865,866,108],{},"回撤如何和账户页面上的其他数字对照着看，请参阅",[60,867,869],{"href":868},"\u002Fguides\u002Freading-a-trading-account-dashboard","如何读懂交易账户控制台",{"title":35,"searchDepth":238,"depth":238,"links":871},[872,873,874,875,876],{"id":21,"depth":238,"text":21},{"id":78,"depth":238,"text":78},{"id":97,"depth":238,"text":97},{"id":151,"depth":238,"text":152},{"id":197,"depth":238,"text":197},"回撤是账户价值从峰值到谷底的跌幅，用百分比表示。本文介绍公式、它为什么是累积的，以及数千个真实交易账户的数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown",[685,881,882,686],"what-is-position-sizing","what-is-a-stop-loss",{"title":693,"description":877},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-drawdown","回撤 (Drawdown)","tI3oDk8FJPfBVP8sboa1RV13uVvVqDQQ3BpyQp8BpuI",{"id":888,"title":889,"body":890,"category":245,"date":246,"description":1122,"draft":248,"extension":249,"meta":1123,"navigation":251,"path":1124,"related":1125,"seo":1127,"stem":1128,"term":1129,"updated":261,"__hash__":1130},"glossary\u002Fzh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy.md","什么是期望值？公式、示例与真实数据",{"type":7,"value":891,"toc":1115},[892,895,897,903,910,913,919,922,924,932,940,948,950,962,978,997,999,1013,1057,1077,1079,1108],[10,893,894],{},"期望值就是一笔交易的平均结果，可以用货币或点数表示：账户每开一笔仓位，平均能赚多少。它由胜率、平均盈利、亏损率、平均亏损四个数字算出，回答的是“这套系统每做一笔到底赚不赚钱”，而且结果可以直接乘以交易笔数。正期望值重复得足够多，就是一门生意；负期望值则是在倒数计时。",[19,896,21],{"id":21},[26,898,901],{"className":899,"code":900,"language":31},[29],"期望值 = (胜率 × 平均盈利) − (亏损率 × 平均亏损)\n\n亏损率 = 1 − 胜率\n",[33,902,900],{"__ignoreMap":35},[10,904,905,906,909],{},"假设一个系统胜率 40%，每笔盈利单赚 $300，每笔亏损单亏 $100：(0.40 × $300) − (0.60 × $100) = $120 − $60 = ",[14,907,908],{},"每笔交易 +$60","。一年做四百笔，预期结果就是 $24,000，这还没考虑仓位大小的变化，也没算上任何意外。",[10,911,912],{},"把同一个公式改用 R 倍数来写（R 即一笔平均亏损），账户货币的影响就去掉了，不同系统也能放在一起比较：",[26,914,917],{"className":915,"code":916,"language":31},[29],"期望值 (R) = (胜率 × 盈亏比) − (1 − 胜率)\n\n盈亏比 = 平均盈利 \u002F 平均亏损\n",[33,918,916],{"__ignoreMap":35},[10,920,921],{},"算出来的数字有没有意义，取决于两点。第一，输入里必须已经扣除成本：点差、佣金和库存费每笔都要付，盈利单因此变小，亏损单因此变大。第二，平均值背后要有足够多的交易，不能让某一笔特别大的结果单独左右它。",[19,923,78],{"id":78},[10,925,926,927,931],{},"统计数字要变成交易计划，靠的就是期望值。",[60,928,930],{"href":929},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-profit-factor","盈利因子","告诉您赚的钱和亏的钱之比；期望值告诉您再多做一笔交易值多少钱，把它乘以交易频率，就能得出一个月的预期结果。",[10,933,934,935,939],{},"胜率掩盖的取舍，也会在期望值里暴露出来。胜率只是优势的一半，另一半是",[60,936,938],{"href":937},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-risk-reward-ratio","风险回报比","，期望值正是两者的交汇点。动其中任何一个，结果都会跟着变；两个都不动，故事讲得再好，结果也不会变。",[10,941,942,943,947],{},"期望值还划出了成本的底线。如果一个策略每笔的期望是 +$8，而一个来回的",[60,944,946],{"href":945},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-a-spread","点差","加佣金就要 $7，剩下的那点东西已经算不上策略了。",[19,949,97],{"id":97},[10,951,952,953,129,956,129,959,108],{},"以下数字描述的是 ShowMyTrades 上已发布的账户，不代表全体交易者。在有交易历史的已发布账户中（2026 年 8 月）取中间水平：",[14,954,955],{},"胜率中位数 68.8%",[14,957,958],{},"盈利因子中位数 1.28",[14,960,961],{},"已平仓交易数中位数 171 笔",[10,963,964,965,968,969,972,973,108],{},"有了这几个数字，这个“中间账户”的期望值就能算出来。把盈利因子公式反推回去，平均盈利约为平均亏损的 ",[14,966,967],{},"0.58 倍","；剩下的用 R 形式一算便知：(0.688 × 0.58) − 0.312 = ",[14,970,971],{},"+0.087R","。也就是说，每做一笔交易，只赚到一笔平均亏损的百分之九。171 笔交易下来，全部利润加起来大约只相当于十五笔平均亏损，所以尽管近七成交易以盈利平仓，",[14,974,975,977],{},[60,976,347],{"href":346},"的中位数也只有 +3.2%",[10,979,980,981,984,985,988,989,992,993,996],{},"优势薄到这个程度，成本就不是可以忽略的零头了。已发布账户累计支付了 ",[14,982,983],{},"$4,782,670 佣金","和 ",[14,986,987],{},"$862,547 库存费","；在产生过库存费的账户中，",[14,990,991],{},"86.3%"," 的净库存费为负。持仓时间中位数只有 ",[14,994,995],{},"2.4 小时","，在这种节奏下，0.087R 的优势要想保住，一个来回的成本相对平均亏损就必须足够小。",[19,998,152],{"id":151},[10,1000,155,1001,1004,1005,1008,1009,1012],{},[14,1002,1003],{},"高级统计","模块里都有",[14,1006,1007],{},"期望值","这一行，位于",[14,1010,1011],{},"表现指标","分组。它在同一行里给出两种单位（先点数，后账户货币）：点数便于在不同品种之间比较，货币金额便于在不同仓位大小之间比较，单看哪一个都不完整。",[10,1014,1015,1016,1019,1020,580,1023,580,1026,322,1029,1032,1033,1039,1040,322,1043,1046,1047,580,1050,322,1053,1056],{},"它的四个输入在同一模块的",[14,1017,1018],{},"交易","分组里：",[14,1021,1022],{},"胜率",[14,1024,1025],{},"平均盈利",[14,1027,1028],{},"平均亏损",[14,1030,1031],{},"总交易数","，旁边还有",[60,1034,1036],{"href":1035},"\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-average-trade-length",[14,1037,1038],{},"平均持仓时间","，能看出这点薄薄的单笔优势是几小时赚到的，还是几周才赚到的。已经扣除的成本显示在",[14,1041,1042],{},"佣金合计",[14,1044,1045],{},"已付库存费合计","两行，每笔交易的明细则在交易表格的",[14,1048,1049],{},"盈利（毛额）",[14,1051,1052],{},"库存费",[14,1054,1055],{},"佣金","列。",[10,1058,1059,1060,1066,1067,580,1070,322,1073,1076],{},"想检验一个期望值到底是一种优势，还是几种优势平均出来的，可以打开",[60,1061,1063],{"href":1062},"\u002Fguides\u002Fcustom-analysis-and-filter-presets",[14,1064,1065],{},"自定义分析","侧边面板：按品种、魔术号、方向、日期范围、星期或小时筛选出子集，整个区块就会重新计算。高级统计还提供",[14,1068,1069],{},"星期",[14,1071,1072],{},"小时",[14,1074,1075],{},"持续时间","视图，不用筛选就能把同一结果拆开来看。",[19,1078,197],{"id":197},[199,1080,1081,1090,1096,1102],{},[202,1082,204,1083,1086,1087,1089],{},[14,1084,1085],{},"正期望值就意味着我会赚钱。","”它只说明平均每笔交易是盈利的。仓位定错了，正期望值的系统照样会亏光：能不能活下来，是",[60,1088,770],{"href":769},"的问题，不是期望值的问题。",[202,1091,204,1092,1095],{},[14,1093,1094],{},"期望值就是我的平均每笔交易。","”前提是平均值按净额计算。按毛利润算就漏掉了佣金和库存费，而薄优势恰恰是在这里消失的。",[202,1097,204,1098,1101],{},[14,1099,1100],{},"高胜率就意味着正期望值。","”单看胜率说明不了任何问题。盈亏比为 0.58 时，60% 的胜率是个亏钱的系统。",[202,1103,204,1104,1107],{},[14,1105,1106],{},"这个数字很稳定。","”只有几百笔交易时并不稳定。一笔特别大的盈利单就能把整个记录的期望值抬上去，把它去掉再算一遍，是个公平的检验。",[10,1109,1110,1111,108],{},"哪些指标值得长期追踪、该按什么顺序看，请参阅",[60,1112,1114],{"href":1113},"\u002Fguides\u002Ftracking-trading-performance","交易表现追踪完全指南",{"title":35,"searchDepth":238,"depth":238,"links":1116},[1117,1118,1119,1120,1121],{"id":21,"depth":238,"text":21},{"id":78,"depth":238,"text":78},{"id":97,"depth":238,"text":97},{"id":151,"depth":238,"text":152},{"id":197,"depth":238,"text":197},"期望值是单笔交易的平均盈亏：(胜率 × 平均盈利) − (亏损率 × 平均亏损)。本文给出公式、完整算例和公开账户的真实数据。",{},"\u002Fzh\u002Fglossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy",[686,1126,881,255],"what-is-risk-reward-ratio",{"title":889,"description":1122},"zh\u002F5.glossary\u002Fwhat-is-expectancy","期望值 (Expectancy)","4gLLgYBgHrrvWKTKFixk2tUfM9kXODaMx4LcyeirnhQ",[1132,1133],{"path":346},{"path":252},1793898057848]